NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 11

Running Backs (Week 11)

Le'Veon Bell – Crazily, Le'Veon Bell is more expensive this week than David Johnson was last week but he is a very difficult fade on just about any week. He is like rostering a combination of a RB2 and WR2 all in one which is just simply not fair. Since his return, he has been targeted at least six times in every game including at least nine targets in each of his last three games. Last week alone, he caught nine passes for 77 yards and a TD. In Week 11, Bell and the Steelers will draw a dream matchup against the Browns who have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing backs. Overall, the Browns have surrendered 1,291 yards rushing (second most), 12 rushing TDs (second most) and 14 total TDs (third most) to the RB position. Hell, they have even allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs so there should be no concerns about the matchup for when Bell lines up as a wideout either. The price tag is steep but very few backs are in excellent spots this week. Solidifying his ridiculous floor due to his involvement in the passing game combined with the fact he is the goal line back makes a ton of sense.

DeMarco Murray – DeMarco Murray last faced the Colts in Week 7 and touched the ball 24 times, gained 127 yards from scrimmage and capped off his day with a TD. According to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic, the Colts rank as the NFL's 30^th rushing defense and 29^th passing defense. Essentially, the biggest threat to a big day from Murray is a huge day from Marcus Mariota and the passing offense. Regardless, the team likes to establish the run and Murray is going to get his. In a matchup against a team allowing the eighth most fantasy points to opposing backs, Murray is firmly supplanted as a RB1. He is a rock solid investment in all formats and possesses the highest floor of any back not named Bell.

LeSean McCoy – Prior to Monday Night Football, Rashad Jennings had rushed for more than 27 yards just once this season….and that came in Week 1. Against the Bengals, Jennings more than doubled his highest yards per carry (YPC) total from any game over the last five weeks en route to 87 rushing yards against the Bengals (on 5.8 YPC). This week, LeSean McCoy draws the matchup against the Bengals and he will be coming off a bye where he was able to rest his ailing hamstring. He desperately needed the extra time so the bye literally could not have come at a more perfect time. Now that he should be healthy, there is no reason he should not be able to torch a Bengals rushing defense that ranks 22^nd in DVOA. Assuming the team trusts his health, workload division should not be an issue because he is used like a bell cow on weeks his hamstring can handle it. Expect 20-plus touches against a beatable opponent.

Spencer Ware – After receiving 17 touches against the Panthers, Spencer Ware proved he can safely be trusted moving forward. In theory, players should be fine once they pass the concussion protocol but it is always comforting to see a player produce before reinserting them into your lineups. The matchup improves significantly this week as the team will square off against a Buccaneers team that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Most notably, they have allowed 452 yards receiving to the position and Coach Andy Reid loves to get Ware involved in the passing game on screen plays. Through eight games, Ware has only failed rush for at least 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) twice and one of those games he left due to the aforementioned concussion. When healthy, Ware is a borderline RB1 so this price tag is just a crazy bargain comparatively to the skill set. Players of this caliber are rarely priced in this range and must be rostered whenever they are…especially when they are in extremely beatable matchups.

Theo Riddick – It is strange to consider Theo Riddick in a matchup against a team that ranks first in DVOA against RBs in the passing game but he is touching the ball around 15-plus times per game. Even if the Jaguars are able to limit his effectiveness in the passing game, which remains to be seen, the Jaguars rank 28^th in rushing DVOA and Riddick is the team's lead back essentially by default. Normally a back in a mediocre matchup for his skill set would need to be reserved for tournaments only but his skill set is so incredibly conducive to PPR scoring and his price tag is a reasonable $5,100 on DraftKings (DK). Hell, this guy led the position in receptions (RECs) last season and he has not showed any signs of slowing down this season either. If he is able to replace a REC or two with a big play in the running game, he will prove to be a worthwhile start at a low ownership percentage.

Wide Receivers (Week 11)

Antonio Brown – Joe Haden is not playing at the same level as he once did and grades outside the top 40 at the cornerback position this season, per Pro Football Focus. Antonio Brown is still the best WR in the game and he is coming off a game where he was targeted a whopping 18 times. Other than this game being played on the road and his price tag, there is not a strong argument to be made against Brown as long as you can stomach his price tag.

Odell Beckham Jr. – What a move Odell Beckham Jr. put on the Bengals corners on his TD REC on Monday Night. He gave the guy a spin cycle and absolutely blew him out of the water to open up space and he scored easily. The play is somewhat irrelevant but should have reminded folks just how good Beckham truly is. Heading into Week 11, Beckham has scored six TDs in his last five games and has not fallen below nine targets in any of those contests. The Bears defense will be tasked with trying to stop him next and they actually have fared pretty respectably against the pass. Even so, the offense is a complete dumpster fire now without Alshon Jeffery so they probably will not be on the field for very long. With the Giants likely to dominate time of possession in this game, Beckham should be presented with plenty of opportunity to succeed…even against Tracy Porter who played an excellent game last week against Mike Evans.

Allen Robinson – It appears Allen Robinson is officially back to his true WR1 status he left off at after last season following a game where he topped 70 yards and a TD for the second consecutive week. In fact, against the Texans, Robinson set a season-high with 107 receiving yards. Sadly, it was the first time he topped that mark this season after he did it twice in the last three weeks in 2015. Either way, all systems are go with Robinson as he has now been targeted 25 times, caught 16 passes and gained nearly 200 in the last two games with a score in each. Lying ahead is a matchup against a Lions secondary that has already allowed 2,449 yards and 20 receiving TDs in what could prove to be a shootout. With Robinson clicking on all cylinders, it is time to return to starting him with confidence on pretty much a weekly basis.

Donte Moncrief – On Oct. 23, T.Y. Hilton absolutely roasted the Titans secondary for 133 yards and a TD so everyone and their grandmother will be rushing to enter him back into their lineups for the rematch. However, Donte Moncrief was not active for that tilt so Hilton was the only show in town. Neither of the Titans outside corners have graded incredibly well (Jason McCourty ranks 35^th at the cornerback position) so Moncrief should have a chance to exploit this secondary as well. Hilton's individual matchup is fantastic but Moncrief is the main target inside the red zone when healthy. Even if the team decides to feature Hilton between the 20 yard lines, Moncrief easily could finish off one of the drives by finding paydirt. This game is projected as the highest scoring of the weekend (52 point over/under) so it very likely could turn into a shootout and that would only be a positive for all the assets involved…including Moncrief.

Jamison Crowder – Who would have thought to begin the year that Jamison Crowder would be leading all Redskins receivers in fantasy points per game by nearly 5.0. He is producing nearly 66-percent more fantasy points per game than both Pierre Garcon and the team's “number one WR" DeSean Jackson. Basically, he has emerged as the top dog in the receiving core and both he and Jordan Reed are featured in this passing attack. On Sunday, the team will take on a Packers secondary that was just annihilated by Marcus Mariota and the Titans so Kirk Cousins and co. should be licking their chops. Last week was the first time in three games Crowder failed to reach 100 yards receiving and he has either produced 100 yards or scored in all but three games this year. Due to the consistency he has displayed, there is no reason not to like him this week.

Tight Ends (Week 11)

Greg Olsen – If playing the Thursday night slate, Greg Olsen will match up against a Saints defense that ranks 25^th in passing DVOA and 31^st against TEs. He is the top play at the position.

Jordan Reed – If playing the Sunday slate only, Jordan Reed is a decent fill-in for Olsen against a Packers team that has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing TEs. If last week is any sort of example, Delanie Walker (another top talent at the position) blasted off against this defense to the tune of nine RECs (on 11 targets) for 124 yards and a TD. Of course, that led to him finishing as TE1 for the week. Reed possesses a similar level of talent although he has a little more competition (Vernon Davis scored a TD last week). Still, Cousins finds a way to target him, and if last week is indicative at all, Reed should be primed for a monster game.

Delanie Walker – The best possible matchup for a TE is to square off against the Lions but the Colts do not rate far behind. While the numbers overall do not jump off the page, DVOA suggests that is more due to their quality of opponents so far considering they rank 31^st against the position. According to Football Outsiders, TEs are averaging 86.3 yards per game against the Colts and they average outputs of 42.5-percent above their average when facing this defense. Last season, Delanie Walker led all TEs in RECs (90) and only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points once over the course of his final 10 games. After a few quiet games early on, Walker is now amidst a similar streak as he has bested 11.50 fantasy points in each of his last four games including a 30-plus fantasy point explosion in Week 10. His nine catch, 124 yard performance was topped off by a TD and led him to finish as TE1 for the week. Now, in a matchup against one of the worst defenses against his position, he should be able to keep up the momentum and probably possesses the safest floor of any player at the position this week. If searching for safety at the position, look no further than Walker.

Julius Thomas – TEs versus the Lions are always a lock to make this article because they are legendarily bad against the position. Kyle Rudolph was the last player at the position to face them and he caught one pass for one yard and still proved to be fine. Why? You guessed it: he scored a TD. Yes, the Lions have still allowed the most TDs to opposing TEs (nine) and that tally now sits at 21 allowed in their last 25 games. Julius Thomas is amidst a down year but he scored last week and is often looked upon in the red zone so there certainly is some upside here.

Charles Clay – He's cheap, Will Tye just managed 5-53 against this Bengals defense and his QB is playing some excellent football (coming off a 26.90 fantasy point performance against the Seahawks). 88-percent of the early public money is on the Bills so the early sharps seem to be pounding the Bills line. Although he played 82 snaps last week, a season-high total, he caught just three passes for nine yards. Actually, it was his third quiet game in a row so the public has probably moved off of him. This presents a buying opportunity for those willing to punt the position against a Bengals defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to the position. If he approaches 80 snaps once again in this matchup, the result should prove to be drastically different.