NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 12

Running Backs (Week 12)

Le'Veon Bell – Once again, just like last week, fading Le'Veon Bell is a scary proposition on this slate. After facing one of the worst defenses against opposing backs last week, in a game where he dropped 37.10 fantasy points, he will now face a Colts team that has allowed a whopping five receiving TDs to the position. Quite clearly, there is no better receiving back in the league than Bell so this matchup is completely conducive to his strength. Additionally, the Colts rank dead last in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic so this projects as just about the best possible matchup for Bell…on par with last week. As icing on the cake, Andrew Luck is unlikely for this game so the Steelers almost assuredly are going to dominate the time of possession and play from ahead. In that scenario, Bell will see even more touches than usual so he quite easily rates as the top play on the entire slate. Fading him to be contrarian is simply overthinking it.

Jay Ajayi – Any RB facing the 49ers is immediately worthy of consideration because they have allowed a league-worst 179.5 yards rushing and 5.2 yards per carry. Additionally, the 49ers rank dead last in time of possession so the Dolphins should have the ball on offense more than usual. With the team having the ball, Jay Ajayi should be leaned upon heavily which can only mean good things against such a porous defensive unit. He should be treated as a true RB1 this week.

Melvin Gordon – According to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), the Texans rank 24^th in rushing defense and rate pretty strongly (11^th) against the pass. Therefore, the Chargers are likely to rely heavily on their star back amidst a breakout season: Melvin Gordon. Amazingly, Gordon has received 13 more red zone carries than any other back in the league so it is no surprise he handily leads the league in red zone rush percentage as well (86.4-percent). Through 10 games, he has scored 11 TDs and he has not failed to reach the 20 carry plateau since Week 5. He is a true workhorse in an upper-echelon matchup so he should be started with confidence.

Jeremy Hill – The torn ACL injury Giovani Bernard suffered in Week 11 means the end of his season…it also means an extended role in the offense for Jeremy Hill moving forward. Instead of a one back system, Hill is going to be relied upon as the true bell cow and he is not priced as such yet. At only $3,900 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FantasyDraft, there is simply too much value to pass on. Hill is about to transform for a guy receiving around 15 carries per game to one who should eclipse 20 on a regular basis. Those extra opportunities should translate into fantasy production even though the matchup is unfavorable; the Ravens rank sixth in rushing defense DVOA. The last time Hill faced the Ravens he rushed for 96 yards and a TD so there is nothing to be overly concerned about here.

Rob Kelley – Another back with a joke of a price tag is Rob Kelley. He is priced at $8,500 on FantasyDraft (and reasonable throughout the industry) and yet he is coming off of a 137 rushing yard, three TD performance against a stout Packers defense. Kelley is now one of only three backs to torch this Packers unit and the other two were Ezekiel Elliott and DeMarco Murray. While he is not in the same class with them yet, he had only rushed for negative yardage in two out of 60 carries heading into Week 11 and he did very little running backwards in that game as well. He is bordering on RB1 status for the season and yet he is priced as a RB3 in this matchup against a solid Cowboys defensive unit. If last week was any indication, Kelley is virtually matchup proof at this point especially at this price tag.

Wide Receivers (Week 12)

Amari Cooper – On Monday Night Football, Amari Cooper hauled in the game winning TD against the Texans to salvage his day. Honestly, the Texans present a very difficult matchup for opposing WRs as A.J. Bouye has graded as the best cornerback in football and Jonathan Joseph is no slouch either. In Week 12, the matchup gets a whole lot easier for Cooper who will square off against a Panthers team that ranks 27^th in DVOA to opposing number one WRs. Top wideouts have averaged 89.7 yards per game against them and Derek Carr is playing the best football of his young career so far. With Odell Beckham Jr. matching up against Joe Haden and Julio Jones drawing a date with Patrick Peterson, Cooper is actually the preferred receiving option to spend up for in cash games.

Larry Fitzgerald – The average score of a Falcons game this season is 32-28 in their favor so almost all of their games are shootouts. Even more notably, they allow the second most fantasy points out of the slot so the matchup is borderline elite for Larry Fitzgerald. Not only is Fitzgerald one of the safest investments in DFS (at least 10.90 fantasy points every week) but he has been targeted at least 11 times in three of his past four games. Vegas lists the Falcons as four point favorites so the Cardinals should be playing from behind in this game and that should only mean more looks for talented veteran. There is not a safer cash game play this week than Fitzgerald and he will not cost you an arm or a leg.

Stefon Diggs – The one WR to lock and load into all Thanksgiving lineups is not Antonio Brown but rather Stefon Diggs due to a matchup against the Lions. Darius Slay is one of the better cover corners in the game, as evident by his job mostly shutting down Allen Robinson last week, but the Vikings are more creative with formations than the Jaguars. Quite often (58-percent of the time), Diggs lines up in the slot and Slay has done almost no shadowing this season (lines up in the slot four-percent of the time). Even after Bortles struggled against this defense last week, the Lions are still allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs including a whopping 22 receiving TDs allowed. Diggs is a one man show on offense at times as evident by 13 receptions (RECs) in back-to-back games prior to being shadowed by Patrick Peterson last week. With room to work, he should be back to the huge volume once again.

Julian Edelman – Sans Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots targeted Julian Edelman a whopping 17 times last week and he hauled in eight passes for 77 yards and a TD. After not scoring in any of his first seven games this season, Edelman has now found the end zone in two of his last three games. As per usual, the Patriots possess one of the highest implied totals of the week and the Jets are a tough team to run on (third in rushing DVOA). Consequently, the Patriots may need to pass more than usual and they only excel against number one WRs. When it comes to covering number two options and the options out of the slot, they rank 30^th and 23^rd respectively. Essentially, Edelman should be heavily schemed into this game plan as well and it would not be surprising for him to continue his scoring ways with his teammates facing much more difficult tasks.

Corey Coleman – Looking for a sneaky, cheap play at WR? Look no further than Corey Coleman whose prospects are enhanced by having Josh McCown under center (an ongoing theme in this article). McCown is clearly the most capable passer of all the Browns to have lined up under center this season and Coleman was targeted a whopping 12 times against the Steelers last week. Winds were gusting up to 30 mph and there was sporadic snow during that game plus the Steelers rank 11^th in DVOA to number two options in the pass game. All of that was a long-winded way of saying the matchup was not nearly as favorable last week as this week against a Giants team that should line up their weak link corner Eli Apple against Coleman for most of the day. With his explosive playmaking ability, he should be able to beat him early and often enough to at least justify his basement cost.

Tight Ends (Week 12)

Jordan Reed – As per usual, the Cowboys are favored on Thanksgiving which means the Redskins should be playing from behind. Sure Dallas dominates time of possession usually but there should still be enough time for Cousins to attempt 35-40 passes and Jordan Reed is usually the focal point of his attention. The emergence of Jamison Crowder recently has toned down Reed's target share a bit but he still has managed at least 10 targets in three of his last five games. Jason Witten is the safer option of the two, but if looking for upside, remember Reed caught 5-70 last game against the Cowboys and he dropped a TD pass. If that catch is hauled in, we are talking about a huge previous game and he ends up the highest owned player at the position on Thanksgiving. Since he dropped that TD, people will look in different directions and that could be a grave mistake.

Greg Olsen – Greg Olsen is simply the best healthy TE on the Sunday slate and he presents a fair degree of safety. Even though he has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games, a matchup against Oakland's 27^th ranked passing defense should be the perfect elixir. Other than Barnidge, the position is full of uncertainty this week and there are a plethora of cheap RBs. If settling for the salary relief options at other positions, Olsen should destined for a bounce back.

Gary Barnidge – As noted in the Coleman tidbit, Josh McCown leading the charge only helps most of the pass-catchers but none more than Gary Barnidge. Last year, Barnidge finished as TE3 in fantasy mostly because of the monstrous eight games he played alongside McCown. Once again, McCown found him in the end zone last week so their ongoing chemistry has not eroded over time. Fortunately for Barnidge, the Giants rank 18^th in DVOA against TEs and Zach Miller was amidst an impressive performance in Week 10 before being forced to leave with a broken foot. Assuming Barnidge's foot can stay intact, he should prove to be one of the best values at the position in Week 12.

Dennis Pitta – Quietly, the Bengals have rated as one of the worst TE defenses in the league as they are allowing a hefty 72.1 yards per game to the position. Dennis Pitta's season has had its ups and downs but recently it has mostly been filled with downs. Still, he has been targeted at least five times in four of his last five games including 10-plus targets twice. Joe Flacco attempts the third most passes per game of any QB so the opportunity should be aplenty for Pitta in this favorable matchup. Due to his recent slump, his price has dropped as well so this could prove to be the perfect buying opportunity.

Cameron Brate – Seattle's defense is tough but one of their few areas of susceptibility is against opposing TEs. Since Jameis Winston will be under siege, and he has only thrown two TDs in the three games combined in which he has been sacked at least three times, this is not a safe investment by any means. However, there is some upside to rostering Cameron Brate as Winston will need to release the ball quick most of the time and his TE has acted as his security blanket for much of the season. With Richard Sherman likely to cover Mike Evans quite a bit, Winston will need to look for other receivers. The only other truly reliable option in the passing game has been Brate so rostering him in tournaments is not the worst idea in the world.