NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 13

Running Backs (Week 13)

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Le'Veon Bell – Now that Le'Veon Bell has begun the find the end zone once again, there is no question that he is worthy of consideration every single week. Over the course of his last three games, Bell has now scored four total TDs after failing to score in each of his first five games this year. With Ezekiel Elliott playing on Thursday night this week, there is not even a decision as for which back to spend up on of the two. Sure David Johnson deserves consideration as well against the Redskins but he is actually more expensive than Bell. There is no reason to pay more for any back than Bell so spend up for him if looking to roster a top back this week.

Melvin Gordon – Like most backs in Week 12, Melvin Gordon disappointed his owners by only rushing for 70 yards and catching four passes for 19 yards. The real bummer was he failed to find the end zone for the second consecutive week and third time in four games. For a guy who leads the NFL in red zone carries by double-digits, it is only a matter of time until the drought ends and he is doing a TD celebration once again. According to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric, the Buccaneers' rushing defense ranks 20^th in the league. In other words, Gordon is in a solid position for a bounceback game.

Jordan Howard – Any time a RB is squaring off against the 49ers, they are immediately worthy of consideration and Jordan Howard is no different. Coach John Fox seems committed to a full workload for his team's best back recently and that is likely to pay off in a big way against the 49ers. Not only have the 49ers allowed the most fantasy points to the position but they also rank 32^nd in rushing DVOA. Essentially, there is no doubt they are the worst rushing defense in the league and Jay Ajayi only struggled last week because three of his team's best offensive linemen were inactive. Even though the Bears' offensive line is dealing with injuries as well, Howard still averaged 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) behind them last week so there is literally nothing to worry about here. Start him with confidence.

Theo Riddick – This Lions/Saints game has all the makings of an ultra-shootout and I don't think you want to be the person without shares this weekend. The upside to this game is legitimately similar to the likes of the Giants/Saints game from just a year ago where the two QBs combined for 11 TDs and the Saints won 52-49. If targeting a Lions' offensive player, Theo Riddick makes a ton of sense especially at his respective price tag. Why? The Saints rank 29^th in DVOA to RBs in the passing game and they also rank 16^th in rushing DVOA overall. Additionally, the Saints have allowed 66 plays of 20-plus yards this season (third most) and 14 plays of 40-plus yards (most in NFL). If there is one player on the Lions with big play ability, Riddick would be the one to fit the bill. He is an awesome play especially on DraftKings (DK) and FantasyDraft (FDr) which both use full point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.

Jeremy Hill – Although Jeremy Hill only managed slightly over 14 fantasy points last week, the performance actually proved to be a pretty effective one on a per-dollar basis. He was only priced at $7,700 on FantasyDraft and he was facing literally the stoutest run defense in the entire NFL (according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric). Now, after a perceived mediocre performance, Hill will square off against another difficult rushing defense…so how is he safe? Well, Hill caught a career-high six passes last week and gained 61 yards via the passing game. It was the most yards he had gained via the air since Week 4 of his rookie season in 2014. With Giovani Bernard done for the season, the team appears committed to using him as a true bell cow including upping his target share in the offense. If so, he is simply way too cheap once again even in a difficult matchup. Considering he acts as the team's goal line back as well, there are just so many ways that he could crush value.

Wide Receivers (Week 13)

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Antonio Brown – Two of the Giants' starting corners in a basic nickel package grade as top 11 overall cover corners so far this season, per Pro Football Focus. With Antonio Brown, it legitimately does not matter because he is simply the best receiver in the game and Ben Roethlisberger is a machine at home. Only the Saints and Patriots are implied to score more points this weekend than the Steelers so feel free to roster Brown as per usual.

Mike Evans – Last week, Mike Evans proved he is absolutely matchup proof as he torched Richard Sherman and the Seattle secondary for 100-plus yards and two TDs. Earlier in the year, Evans managed a 6-70-1 line against Patrick Peterson, a 5-59 line against Aqib Talib and now a fantastic line against the Sherman. There is no reason to worry about who is covering him any longer. This week, Evans is set to square off against Casey Hayward, Pro Football Focus' fifth best graded cover corner, and yet there should be no fear towards rostering Evans. He moves around the formation a ton so he will draw favorable matchups unless he is shadowed: he lines up on the left side 46-percent of the time, 19-percent of the time in the slot and 35-percent on the right side. According to DVOA, the Chargers rank 12^th in DVOA against opposing number one WRs, so this matchup rates closer to neutral than “bad." Evans should be considered a true WR1 once again this week.

Stefon Diggs – After missing last week's game, Stefon Diggs returned to practice on Monday and followed it up with limited participation in Tuesday's practice as well. In other words, he is on pace to play on Thursday. If playing the Thursday slate, Diggs is the player to slide into lineups because the Cowboys rank 27^th in DVOA to “other" WRs aka those lining up out of the slot. Brandon Carr lines up on the left side of the formation 97-percent of the time so he virtually never shadows an opponents' top option. Anthony Brown, Pro Football Focus' 82^nd graded cover corner, will have the task of covering Diggs. Good luck.

Willie Snead – With exposure to the Saints offense being an absolute must this week, Willie Snead makes the most sense as an investment on a per-dollar basis. Michael Thomas has acted as the team's top wideout but he will draw the likely matchup against Darius Slay (Pro Football Focus' sixth highest graded cover corner). Although I expect a bounceback from Brandin Cooks, it is difficult to rely on him in cash games coming off of a zero target performance. That leaves Willie Snead as the play out of the slot against a Lions defense that ranks 32^nd in DVOA against the pass. He has been targeted at least seven times in six of his last seven games and has caught at least three passes every game during that stretch. In a game that should feature plenty of passing volume on both sides, Snead should be able to get his and is a viable play in all formats.

Tyler Boyd – Recommending a Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green feels wrong but Tyler Boyd has stepped up in his absence and has been targeted 17 times in nearly two full games without the star receiver. Davante Adams proved once again the best way to beat the Eagles is by picking on their cornerbacks so Boyd draws the best individual matchup of any of their offensive staples. Boyd is a big receiver who was targeted at a heavy volume in college so he has experience being “the guy" in the passing game. The good news here is he technically isn't option 1A because Tyler Eifert should play that role and Boyd will just have to do his complementary part to make sure the offense goes. When the team reaches the red zone, Andy Dalton would be foolish to not attempt to beat their small corners. Considering the uptick in targets Boyd has seen recently, he is once again a safe option this week.

Tight Ends (Week 13)

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Jimmy Graham – Nothing about this matchup jumps off the page other than the fact Jimmy Graham is awesome. Over the last four weeks, Graham has only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points once and he has scored three TDs during that span. TEs basically average their average output against the Panthers and Graham's average is pretty solid; he is averaging the fourth most fantasy points per game of any TE. While there are superior cash options for cheaper, Graham is very much in play in large field GPPs.

Tyler Eifert – Yes, Tyler Eifert is the third Bengal to be mentioned in this article and all three are incredibly viable this week against the Eagles. On paper, the Eagles seem like a very difficult matchup as they have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to the position and they rank fourth in TE DVOA. However, Eifert just managed a 5-68-1 line against the Ravens last week who rate as the top TE defense. Sure he did not convert his targets at a high rate (45-percent catch rate) but he still got it done for his fantasy owners and the same will probably hold true in this matchup. Sans Green and Bernard, Eifert stands out as Dalton's top target so he has no reason to not keep targeting him. It is rare for a TE to be the top target in the offense so the high floor he naturally is going to possess in this role is certainly intriguing.

Greg Olsen – In last year's regular season meeting against the Seahawks last year, Greg Olsen dominated en route to a 7-131-1 line. The way the cards fell, Olsen and company squared off against the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs as well…he went off once again to the tune of 6-77-1. If there is one place to beat the Seahawks' defense, it is by targeting the TE; they rank 21^st in TE DVOA defense. As if that were not enough, he is priced cheaper than both Graham and Eifert on DK. On per-dollar basis, Olsen stands out amongst the elites at the position so fade him at your own risk.

Martellus Bennett – Rob Gronkowski had been questionable heading into last game and he injured his back early in the contest and then never returned. He was seen “walking gingerly" after the game and it seems reasonable to expect the team will give him enough time to fully recover before forcing him back out there. Once again, the majority of TE targets will no funnel through Martellus Bennett and unfortunately his price tag accurately reflects the role. While his price tag does not exactly deem him the greatest of bargains, he has topped 100 yards thrice this season and bested 20 fantasy points in each of those explosions. While he may not be the safest of options, his ceiling is as high as anyone's and therefore he cannot be excluded from tournament consideration.

Hunter Henry – In Week 12, Antonio Gates was not targeted at all while Hunter Henry caught 2-3 targets for 20 yards and a TD. When all said and done, Gates played 35 snaps to Henry's 28 but Henry is clearly the superior offensive player at this point. While Gates' sure hands will be an asset until he is 60, he just does not possess the ability to get consistently open any more. Meanwhile, Henry possesses the speed of a WR and he too showed off his impressive hands hauling in a pass that Rivers basically threw at the ground for the TD grab on Sunday. Vegas expects this weekend's tilt with the Buccaneers to be close and Henry is priced at a sub-$3,000 cost. Hell, only seven TEs have seen more targets inside the red zone than Henry's 12 so he is a weekly threat to score.