NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 14

Running Backs (Week 14)

Le'Veon Bell – Le'Veon Bell stands out as the obvious player to spend up for this week even over the likes of David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., etc. Why? Well, heading into Week 13, Bell had caught exactly one fewer pass than Brown since his return from suspension and they both caught six passes once again last week. Essentially, Bell is a WR1 and RB2 all in one and now the team will square off against a Bills team that ranks 25^th in rushing DVOA. Over the course of the last four games, Bell's lowest fantasy output has been 26.20 fantasy points and he has averaged 31.23 fantasy points during that stretch. On the road, where QB Ben Roethlisberger is much less comfortable, expect another monster performance from the star back.

Ezekiel Elliott – The team's first meeting against the Giants came in Week 1 and Ezekiel Elliott has since morphed into a much more seasoned player since that time. Technically, the 51 rushing yards he produced that game were a season-low but I am not going to project him based on his first game as a professional. Elliott runs behind arguably the best offensive line in football and has now eclipsed 80 yards rushing and 15 fantasy points in every game. Sure the Giants rank eighth in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric but Elliott is virtually matchup proof. Expect him to flirt with 100 yards and fall into multiple goal line carries as per usual. Having said that, he may be a better fit for cash games than tournaments this week with his upside a bit capped against a solid defensive unit.

Todd Gurley – I have heard people call Todd Gurley a “glorified Jeremy Hill" but the Falcons' rush defense is in bad shape heading into Week 14. Last week, both Spencer Ware and Albert Wilson scored rushing TDs against them and Ware even scored a receiving TD. The week before, David Johnson rushed for 58 yards but caught eight passes for 101 yards receiving and a TD. In Week 10, Ryan Mathews busted out for 109 yards rushing and two TDs while Darren Sproles caught eight passes for 57 yards. Basically, if you are a RB, you are in a great spot to succeed against this defense. Todd Gurley has had a rough go of it this season and has failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry (YPC) in four consecutive weeks but this is the ideal matchup for him to turn things around. At just $5,000 on DraftKings (DK), the price is right as well. While he is never the ideal cash game back, he should possess tournament upside against an incredibly beatable (especially as of late) opponent.

Theo Riddick – The loss of Jerrell Freeman cannot be understated for Theo Riddick's purposes in this matchup. Freeman was suspended four games for performance-enhancers and Pro Football Focus had him graded as the second best linebacker in coverage prior to this punishment. People are going to look at his previous matchup against the Bears (9.80 fantasy points) and not raise an eyebrow but things are totally different this go-around. Additionally, Dwayne Washington is expected to miss this game with an injured ankle so Riddick could possibly be in line for more carries as well. With the Lions offense firing on all cylinders once again, Riddick is worth as shot in tournaments at home. He is by no means a safe play but he should fly under the radar in a matchup that actually projects quite nicely on paper.

Jeremy Hill – Again the price on Jeremy Hill rose this week and yet he is still worth using against a Browns defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the RB position this season. Additionally, the Browns rank 29^th in rushing DVOA and 20^th in DVOA against opposing backs in the passing game. Since Giovani Bernard went down with a torn ACL, Hill has caught eight passes in two weeks. The last time these two teams squared off, Hill rushed for 168 yards and a TD on just nine carries on the heels of season-long 74 yard run. While that sort of bust out run cannot be projected, it epitomizes the sort of upside he could possess in this cake matchup. Rex Burkhead has taken an uncomfortable amount of snaps away from Hill over the last two weeks (74 for Hill, 65 for Burkhead since Bernard injury) but Hill is still touching the ball much more. Following two reasonably quiet games against stout defenses, Hill's ceiling is much higher this week (as is his floor).

Wide Receivers (Week 14)

Antonio Brown – Ben Roethlisberger's home/away splits this season are as substantial as ever considering he currently sports a 119.0 QB rating in Heinz Field compared to just 81.9 on the road. In five road games, Roethlisberger has thrown just eight TDs combined (and five INTs) and has completed only 60.2-percent of his passes (versus 70.5-percent at home). Still, this offense is so concentrated that Brown can never be written off in good conscience. Also, Brown strangely has scored six of his 11 total receiving TDs on the road this year. If following along at home, that means Brown has caught 6-8 TD passes that Roethlisberger has thrown on the road. That is an absurd total but that is simply how this Steelers passing offense works. Considering the Bills rank 24^th in DVOA against opposing number one WRs, he is absolutely worth spending up for.

Odell Beckham Jr. – Over the course of his last three outings against the Cowboys, Odell Beckham has been all too quiet and I believe it has something to do with their defensive scheme. At this point, however, every team who plays the Giants should be scheming a safety over the top and be planning to habitually help out the corner tasked with guarding him. Amazingly, Beckham has topped 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has been targeted at least 10 times in each game he has eclipsed that total. According to DVOA, Dallas' pass defense only ranks 27^th and they rank as a neutral matchup (15^th in DVOA) against opposing number one WRs. At some point, talent is going to overcome their scheme and Beckham will get his. Tournaments are the proper place to deploy him this week but he is an elite option in the format as per usual.

Mike Evans – Saying “the Saints defense stinks" is probably a factual statement but they have enjoyed a fair amount of success against opposing number one WRs. The media all wants to give the credit to Delvin Breaux but he has graded as the 114^th best cover corner in the league so far this year. More of the credit should probably be given to B.W. Webb and Sterlins Moore who both grade inside the top 50…but those are the best corners the Saints have to offer. If an elite corner is not shadowing Evans, then he is in a prime spot to succeed because Jameis Winston will feed him the ball. If not spending up for any of the aforementioned duo, Evans is a fine alternative to lead a fantasy receiving core this week in any and all formats.

Stefon Diggs – All three of the Jaguars' starting corners in a base nickel setup have graded respectably this year but Stefon Diggs stands out as above and beyond the top option in the Vikings passing game. Starting a player in the game projected at the lowest over/under of the week by a large margin is never ideal but Diggs is only two games removed from a streak of 13-plus targets in three straight weeks. With him back and healthy, there is no reason the volume should not be there once again, which helps create a high floor for him. Since the Jaguars rank 27^th in DVOA to opposing number one WRs and 26^th to opposing number two WRs, the individual grades of the corners can be overlooked. The Vikings have no choice but to try and target their stud receiver in order to win and his floor could be five receptions (RECs) in this game. If he exceeds that floor, and/or scores a TD, his owners will be ecstatic.

Jordan Matthews – Coach Doug Pederson was quoted on Tuesday as saying Jordan Matthews will return to practice Wednesday so it appears he is on track to play once again this week. The whole Dorial Green-Beckham as a WR1 experiment failed last week so the Eagles must be overjoyed to see their top weapon back in action this week…and just in time to face Kendall Fuller and the Redskins secondary. To this point, Fuller, the nickel corner, has barely graded inside the top 90 at the position and the Redskins have struggled against all receivers. Typically, Matthews is a staple of consistency as he has only failed to reach 59 yards receiving or a TD twice. In this upper-echelon matchup, Matthews can safely be deployed in cash game lineups but is a risky tournament proposition.

Tight Ends (Week 14)

Jimmy Graham – The Packers are a strange case of DVOA and fantasy points allowed not matching up because they rank seventh in TE DVOA and yet have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing TEs. DVOA certainly is not a perfect metric and Jimmy Graham presents a tough matchup for any defense so he can be deployed with confidence this week regardless. Heading into this game, Graham has been targeted at least seven times in back-to-back games and has cracked double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. He does not come cheap but he provides owners with a safe floor especially in a game where the Seahawks are no doubt going to be forced to throw to compete with the Packers.

Greg Olsen – The Panthers offense has been a mess this year and Greg Olsen has suffered over the past four games. Amazingly, Olsen started the season by scoring 12-plus fantasy points in six straight games (including three games over 20) and yet he has not topped 8.90 fantasy points in the past four games (with some favorable matchups along the way). For many, this will be the last straw for fantasy owners attempting to go back to the Olsen well against a Chargers team they will have to match point-for-point. Sure the Chargers possess a formidable TE defense but Olsen is just too good to be held down for this long. This is a make or break week for him and he should prove to be under-owned due to recency bias. Maybe he shows up, maybe he does not; do you have the cojones to take the risk?

Ladarius Green – Ladarius Green is a fantastic athlete as evident by his huge frame and 4.53 40-yard dash at the combine during his draft year. It was only a matter of time until he would make an impact on this team once he got healthy and he broke out in a huge way last week. Despite playing around only half the snaps, Green topped 100 yards and scored a TD and now faces a great matchup against a Bills team that ranks 26^th in TE DVOA. Although Roethlisberger tends to struggle on the road, now he is equipped with a new upper-echelon asset which should only help. Green's talent is for real but the price increase is just enough to deem him a better tournament option than cash.

C.J. Fiedorowicz – The Colts rank dead last in TE DVOA defense and all C.J. Fiedorowicz did in the last meeting was catch 6-7 targets for 85 yards and a TD against them. Since that game, Fiedorowicz has been targeted six-plus times in all but one ballgame and caught four-plus passes in all but one game (the same game) as well. All of the other receiving options on this team have proven to be volatile but Fiedorowicz can be counted on as a weekly contributor. Only Travis Kelce, Cameron Brate, Tyler Eifert, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green and Zach Ertz have gained more yardage at the position over the course of the last four weeks. Quietly, Fiedorowicz is an upper-echelon contributor at the position and is priced at a point where it would be difficult to flop. Assuming he comes anywhere near reaching his potential in this elite matchup, he is going to absolutely crush value.

Jason Witten – In the last matchup versus the Giants, Dak Prescott targeted Witten a whopping 14 times and he caught nine of those passes. Clearly, the team schemed Witten into the plan as they saw something against this defense. At only $3,100, Witten is the cheapest TE on this list and yet he may have the safest floor of the bunch. Although his upside is limited due to his age and lack of explosiveness, he should be a lock to catch a handful of passes (or more).