NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 15

Running Backs (Week 15)

Le'Veon Bell – After damn near dropping 60 fantasy points on DraftKings (DK)/FantasyDraft (FDr) last week, Bell's price has skyrocketed to $9,800/$18,600 on the two sites respectively. Even with David Johnson and his cost skyrocketing, it still feels necessary to roster at least one of them in cash games and Bell gets the nod at the slightly cheaper price tag. He will face a Bengals team that ranks 20^th in Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric compared to Johnson who will face the Saints' 16^th ranked rushing defense. To be fair, the Saints rank 30^th in DVOA to opposing RBs in the passing game so Johnson's ceiling and floor are both incredibly high as well but Bell gets the slight nod in cash games because, well, he is an absolute monster. As per usual, you will want shares of both and making the decision of which to roster will be tough in all situations.

LeSean McCoy – One of the natural alternatives to the dominant duo of backs is LeSean McCoy at home against a porous Browns run defense. In the snow last week, the team allowed Jeremy Hill to crack the 100 yard rushing mark and he topped off his big day with a score as well. Meanwhile, McCoy proved to be productive in the snow as well as he scored a rushing TD, caught six passes for 81 yards and finished with 22.80 total fantasy points. Not only do the Browns rank 31^st in DVOA against the run, they rank 29^th against the pass as well so this sets up as a big day for both McCoy and Tyrod Taylor. Do not be afraid to stack the two in any format especially if the weather holds up.

Devonta Freeman – Recency bias is strong in daily fantasy football and Tevin Coleman was the member of the Falcons backfield to enjoy a monster week in Week 14. Hell, he ended up winning a guy $2 million at the DK Fantasy Football World Championship so his performance was both impactful and memorable. Even with that being said, Devonta Freeman has still edged out Coleman in fantasy points per game (FPPG) 16.00-14.81. Last week, the backup substantially outscored the starter against the 49ers so that must be the case once again this week, right? Wrong. Freeman stands out in most algorithms this week as one of the best values at the position as his season-low six carries last week should not be too worrisome. Remember, he had scored four rushing TDs in two games prior to his 3.80 fantasy point flop against the Rams. Now, against the worst rushing defense in the game, Freeman should be able to bounceback in a big way. The question is will most people lean on him or go back to the Coleman well?

Spencer Ware – Judging by the DVOAs, the Titans rank 24^th in pass defense and 14^th in rushing defense. Most offensive coordinators would look at this opponent and decide to mostly commit to the pass in order to win. For Coach Andy Reid, that pretty much is not an option as his offense is built around running the football and only taking chances when he has to. Additionally, Spencer Ware has carried the ball at least 13 times in five consecutive games despite the fact he has now failed to reach 3.0 yards per carry (YPC) in back-to-back contests. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backs but they have only played the Broncos (undecided at the RB position currently), Bears (Jordan Howard rushed 18 times for 84 yards and caught 3-43) and the Colts (Frank Gore only rushed for 50 yards on 18 carries behind a bad Colts offensive line). In other words, the sample size in the short term is a bit skewed and the Titans also rank 31^st to opposing backs in the passing game. In fantasy terms, this probably means a few extra screens for Ware and it is already assumed he will get the goal line work. At a reasonable $5,700 price tag on DK, he is worth a shot.

LeGarrette Blount – Despite the team having the luxury of starting arguably one of the best few QBs in NFL history, the formula to beat the Broncos is as follows: run the football. Need evidence? The Broncos rank first in passing DVOA and 26^th in rushing DVOA. Who is the likeliest of candidates for the Patriots to feature in their rushing attack? You guessed it: LeGarrette Blount. He is always criminally under-owned in great spots as people split the ownership between him, James White and even Dion Lewis. If there were ever a spot for a Blount game, this would be it.

Wide Receivers (Week 15)

Mike Evans – “Epic fail" accurately describes Week 13 as a whole for the Buccaneers offense who were implied to score the highest total of the week. While Antonio Brown is certainly in play this week, Odell Beckham Jr. continue the streak of number one WRs putting together respectable outings against the Cowboys defense last week…and now it is Evans' turn. Beckham scored a TD, Adam Thielen racked up 7-86 in Week 12, DeSean Jackson had 118 yards receiving and a TD in Week 11, Steve Smith Sr. dropped 8-99-1 in Week 10 and the list goes on and on. Back-to-back quiet weeks for Evans has been a surprise but Jameis Winston will no doubt will be looking for him once again next week. Brown and Evans' projections stand out above the field so choosing between one of them is the ideal strategy for cash games and pairing them with an elite RB.

Jordy Nelson – There has been only one game this season in which Jordy Nelson has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points and it was in his meeting against his upcoming opponent: the Bears. Considering the Bears rank 14^th in DVOA against opposing number one WRs, the outcome seems more like variance than the consequence of a difficult matchup. Nelson will head into this week having scored seven TDs in his last seven games including matchups against the Seahawks and Texans who possess two of the game's best corners (Richard Sherman and A.J. Bouye). Instead of playing “yesterday fantasy sports" and fading him due to the dud, have some foresight and continue to play the red hot Nelson is a solid matchup.

Stefon Diggs – Most lining up in the slot will actually help Stefon Diggs' cause this week because Patrick Robinson is done for the season. Prior to suffering a groin injury, Robinson had graded as one of the game's best nickel corners but he that no longer matters since he has been placed on injured reserve. This opens up a spot of weakness in the defense and Diggs will have the opportunity to take advantage. Assuming the team schemes him heavily into the game plan, and they do most weeks, he could go absolutely crazy this week.

Michael Crabtree – Unfortunately for Amari Cooper, the side of the field he lines up on a majority of the time is Casey Hayward territory and Hayward presents quite the challenge for anyone who lines up against him. While Cooper is struggling to get free, Michael Crabtree will match up against Craig Mager who has literally graded as one of the five worst corners in the game this year, per Pro Football Focus. With Cooper being bottled up, Crabtree is likely to see an uptick in volume against the weak link of the opposing defense. The first meeting can be thrown out the window as Jason Verrett was still in the picture at that point but Crabtree still caught 3-47-1 during that contest. This go-around, the matchup is a whole lot easier for one of Derek Carr's twin tower targets.

Rishard Matthews – Rishard Matthews had topped 13 fantasy points in five consecutive weeks heading into a matchup against arguably the league's toughest secondary last week, he flopped and now his price has regressed all the way down to scrub level? Wow. Bargains like this do not come along everyday as Matthews has proven himself to be a borderline WR1 on most weeks but especially in favorable matchups. The Chiefs rank 25^th in DVOA against opposing number one WRs and have surrendered 83.0 yards per game the position so they definitely qualify as a favorable opponent. Amazingly, Matthews has scored seven TDs over the course of his last nine games and yet guys like Cole Beasley (five TDs) and Willie Snead (four TDs) are significantly more expensive on DK/FDr. Since the Chiefs have allowed 15 receiving TDs to opposing WRs already this season, Matthews is a threat to score once again. Even if he does not, the Chiefs have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to the WR position so Matthews should be in a great spot to exceed value at his price regardless.

Tight Ends (Week 15)

Travis Kelce – Having exceeded 100 yards receiving in four straight games, Travis Kelce is quite obviously worthy of consideration every week at a position lacking that sort of elite, consistent production this year. The matchup is middle of the road against a Titans defense that ranks 10^th in DVOA against the position but the team finally seems to be featuring Kelce (as they should have been doing all along). He has a Rob Gronkowski-like skill set and is showing he could be a beast on a weekly basis as long as they scheme him into the plan. As always, he is worthy of a start in all formats as long as you are comfortable spending up at the position.

Kyle Rudolph – Although once thought of as a TD-dependent fantasy asset, Kyle Rudolph has shown he can be productive in recent weeks with or without a score. Amazingly, he has been targeted 30 times in his last three games and has scored double-digit fantasy points in each despite only scoring one TD. Sam Bradford rarely can sustain two fantasy relevant targets in the same week so only one of Diggs/Rudolph should be rostered on one team (especially with Adrian Peterson possibly back this week). Rudolph is certainly not a bad choice as he will square off against a team that ranks dead last in DVOA against opposing TEs. With tons of volume in a cupcake matchup, he should possess a very safe floor at the very least.

Cameron Brate – Like Evans, Cameron Brate disappointed last week and now Vegas is giving the Buccaneers no respect (19.8 implied points) this week. In tune, Brate's price has decreased on all sites and he will probably be overlooked by most although he has been targeted on 21.9-percent of his team's red zone targets. In other words, more than one out of every five targets inside the red zone heads his way which should give him a solid chance to score. Only Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates and Travis Kelce have been targeted at a higher percentage of their team's respective targets down close to the end zone. Rostering him is the equivalent of zigging while everyone is zagging and last week's bum could become this week's hero.

Ladarius Green – Probably the most intriguing option at the position this week is Ladarius Green against a Bengals team that has allowed the third most fantasy points to the TE position. Green was held quiet last week because the team was playing in a blizzard. Even in the snow, Roethlisberger targeted him in the end zone and he just could not hang on. Green is an ascending talent in a high-powered offense that is projected to play in a tight divisional game this week. Green was still targeted six times last week and his 11 target, six catch, 110 target the week before is closer to what expectations should be this week. In the long run in this offense, Green should prove to be a true TE1 and the masses have not quite caught on yet. This may be the last week Green can be rostered at a reasonable ownership percentage before the fantasy world starts considering him a star.

Eric Ebron – Safe Eric Ebron feels like an oxymoron but this week the two terms are synonymous. Prior to Jason Witten's 6.60 fantasy point disappointment in Week 14 versus the Giants, teams had been tearing up the Giants in the middle of the field. In Week 13, Ladarius Green torched this squad for six catches, 110 yards and a TD. The week before, Isaiah Crowell caught a season-high six passes for 47 yards. The week before, Zach Miller was amidst a monster three catch, 61 yard half capped off by a TD and then he left due to injury. Against the Bengals, Tyler Eifert caught three passes for 96 yards…and the trend goes on and on and on. Meanwhile, Ebron has been targeted at least five times in all but one game this year (9-10 games total) but he has not eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in any of his last three games. The Giants rank 27^th in DVOA against TEs so there are absolutely no excuses this week. At a depreciating cost, this is the perfect time to buy low in the talented youngster.