NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 16

Running Backs (Week 16)

Le'Veon Bell – Although Le'Veon Bell is viable every time he steps on the field, this is a difficult matchup for him against the league's top rushing defense according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. The good news is the Ravens rank 26^th against RBs in the passing game so Bell should be able to rack up the receptions (RECs). Having said that, if there ever were a week to fade him, this would be the one. Back on Nov. 6, Bell produced his worst game of the season against the Ravens as he only rushed for 32 measly yards on 14 carries (2.3 yards per carry). To be fair, he still caught six passes for 38 yards but this defense is tough. If choosing between one of him and Antonio Brown in cash, the WR wins that head-to-head easily.

DeMarco Murray – Plenty of teams are slated for division games this weekend meaning there is already a sample size for their players against the exact same opponent. Take DeMarco Murray for example: he rushed for 123 yards on 21 carries (5.9 yards per carry) and a TD in his first meeting with the Jaguars. On paper, the Jaguars are nothing more than a mediocre rushing defense as they rank middle of the road in terms of DVOA and they have allowed the 13^th most fantasy points to RBs per game over the last month (including five rushing TDs during that span). With David Johnson drawing a tough matchup against the Seahawks this week, Murray is the common sense alternative for a significantly cheaper cost (only $7,000 on DraftKings (DK)).

Jordan Howard – With Alshon Jeffery back in action, the Bears passing attack actually looked formidable last week. Amazingly, three Bears WRs finished in the top seven on fantasy scoring on the Sunday only slate. If the team can establish a respectable passing game once again, it will help complement Jordan Howard who continues to flirt with true RB1 status. Since Oct. 20, Howard has touched the ball at least 15 times in seven consecutive games and has not sunk below double-digit fantasy points. Only three backs who have attempted at least 100 rushes have gained more yards per carry than Howard: LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram and Ezekiel Elliott (in that order). This week, the Bears will square off against a Redskins defense that ranks 27^th in DVOA against the run and has now given up 15 rushing TDs to opposing RBs after Mike Tolbert scored on Monday Night Football. If spending up at QB, paying for multiple backs as well is difficult, so Howard makes roster construction work.

Todd Gurley – RBs can simply not be faded against the 49ers any longer. Over the last two weeks alone, Bilal Powell has rushed for 145 yards and two TDs and then Devonta Freeman rumbled, bumbled and stumbled all the way to 139 yards rushing and three TDs (on 7.0 yards per carry). To this point, the 49ers have surrendered 2,170 total rushing yards…the second worst defense is currently sitting at 1,877 rushing yards allowed (Browns). Additionally, the 49ers have allowed a whopping 25 total TDs to RBs through 14 games while the Browns (second worst again) have allowed 19. This 49ers defense is just mincemeat against the position, and although Todd Gurley says his offense has been playing like a “middle school offense," a 14 year old would probably rush for 90 and a TD against this team. Thus far, Gurley has not played up to the level most expected this season, but if there ever were a matchup that could catapult him back to playing like an All-Pro, this would be it.

Kenneth Farrow – Although Kenneth Farrow turned out to be a terrible play last week but he still out-snapped Ronnie Hillman 41-13. What was supposed to be a “platoon" according to the team's beat writers turned into more of a bell cow/complementary back split with Farrow leading the charge. This week, the matchup gets a whole lot easier against the Browns and the ownership will probably drop due to him burning people last week. Heading into this week, he has touched the ball at least 17 times in two straight games but his effectiveness on a per carry basis (3.03 yards per carry) has been less than desirable. Against the Browns, the hope is the effectiveness will kick up to respectable levels considering they have allowed the second most fantasy points to RBs and rank dead last in rushing DVOA. Last week's garbage is this week's treasure.

Wide Receivers (Week 16)

Antonio Brown – Rostering Bell over Antonio Brown has been the play over the last few weeks due to the RB's insane workload combined with his elite skills. This deadly combination has led to five 26-plus fantasy point outputs over the course of the last six weeks. Finally, it is time for Brown to reintroduce himself to the fantasy world as a true superstar. The Steelers' opponent, the Ravens, rank first in rushing DVOA and third against opposing TEs. Meanwhile, their weakness is against opposing number one WRs as they rank 15^th in DVOA against the position. Ben Roethlisberger's home/away splits are substantial but he still managed to feed Brown in the team's only meeting this year (in Baltimore). Brown caught 7-11 targets in that game for 85 yards and a TD. Since that game, four of his last six games have come on the road. At home this year, Brown has only failed to reach 17 fantasy points and that came all the way back in Week 3 against the Bengals; he was targeted 11 times in that game but only hauled in four passes. Since Brown has not been nearly as dominant as per usual as of late, his price has slipped all the way to sub-$15,500 levels. By comparison, Le'Veon Bell ($17,700), David Johnson ($17,300), LeSean McCoy ($17,000) and Mike Evans ($16,000) all cost more on both DK and FantasyDraft (FDr). When Brown is right, there is absolutely no one better in the game, so this price tag an absolutely be considered a bargain for his otherworldly skill set. With a vintage Brown performance likely on the horizon, fantasy owners will not want to miss out.

Odell Beckham Jr. – What is not to like about Odell Beckham Jr.'s matchup this week against an Eagles team that does not possess a single cornerback that has graded inside the top 80 at the position in terms of their coverage ability (per Pro Football Focus)? The Eagles have slid down to third in passing DVOA but that does not tell the full story because they have surrendered the second most receiving yards to opposing WRs over the last month. Furthermore, they have allowed the third most fantasy points to the WR position over that span including a whopping seven TDs. While it has seemed necessary to spend up on multiple backs nearly every week in recent memory, this feels more like a multiple stud WR week. Oh by the way, Beckham torched the Eagles for 4-46-2 in their last meeting on Nov. 6.

T.Y. Hilton – Speaking of solid matchups, T.Y. Hilton is able to exploit defenses with solid outside corners by lining up in the slot. Both Sean Smith and David Amerson of the Raiders have graded as top 21 overall corners in terms of their coverage ability for Hilton will not see much of them because of where he typically lines up. Instead, T.J. Carrie will be tasked with covering him and he grades outside the top 50 at the position in coverage. Overall, the Raiders rank 21^st in passing defense so teams have been exploiting them all season long where they are weak. It just so happens the Colts' strength in the passing game coincides with their weakness so they could be in trouble. Hilton is only one of six receivers who has received at least 130 targets and scored less than 10 TDs so he is probably best left for tournaments.

Michael Crabtree – Michael Crabtree came through for his owners last week due to a tremendous TD reception and now he draws a matchup against a Colts defense whose corners have all under-performed this season…starting with Vontae Davis. Once one of the games lockdown corners, Davis has been burned time and time again this season as evident by the fact the Colts rank 31^st in DVOA against opposing number one WRs. Overall, they rank 26^th in passing DVOA and now Derek Carr is multiple weeks removed from his finger injury. Behind his dominant offensive line, expect Carr to have plenty of time to throw and find Crabtree, who is underpriced especially on FanDuel (FD) at $6,200.

Cameron Meredith – Amazingly, Matt Barkley was able to sustain three WRs last week as Alshon Jeffery, Cameron Meredith and even Deonte Thompson finished in the top seven in fantasy points at the position. Jeffery's return helped create open space for the other receivers but Meredith was still coming off a 6-72-1 performance against the Lions without him. With Barkley looking respectable, Meredith is in play once again with Jeffery likely matched up against Josh Norman. According to DVOA, the Redskins rank 28^th against opposing number two WRs so Meredith, whose price has risen to $4,700 on DK, should still be able to come through for his owners.

Tight Ends (Week 16)

Jordan Reed – Safety and Jordan Reed cannot be used in the same sentence as Reed is always dealing with injury and then last week he went ahead and got himself tossed for throwing a punch. However, the matchup against the Bears this week is sneakily attractive. While they have only allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs, they rank 27^th in DVOA against the position. The return of Jerell Freeman muddies the water a little but Reed is still talented enough to warrant GPP consideration.

Greg Olsen – Greg Olsen was sent to see a specialist about his elbow so he is questionable to play this weekend. Assuming he does, the matchup against the Falcons stands out especially considering Olsen lit them up for 9-181 in their last meeting. Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing TEs than the Falcons and nearly all of their games result in blowouts. If Olsen is deemed active, he is a fine play in all formats.

Antonio Gates – The Chargers TE situation has been frustrating as Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry continue to split snaps pretty evenly. In Week 15, Gates played 35 snaps to Henry's 29 offensively but both played over 50-percent of the offensive snaps. This is an ongoing theme between the two and it makes either one impossible to trust in cash games. Nevertheless, Gates has still received 17 red zone targets which is tied for first amongst all TEs and his five TDs are tied for fifth. The TE position is ugly this week so you are going to have to take chances no matter what so why not take the shot on Gates versus the team that ranks dead last in TE DVOA?

Eric Ebron – Sure Eric Ebron has been mediocre but at least he has been consistently mediocre. Despite failing to reach double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three games, he has caught exactly four passes in each and been targeted at least five times every game during that stretch. One of these days, Ebron is going to earn himself a red zone target and end up eclipsing his value threshold. The Cowboys defense as a whole is tough but they rank 30^th in DVOA against opposing TEs. In other words, the Lions would be smart to scheme him in as he could prove to be the X-factor.

Jermaine Gresham – Quietly, Jermaine Gresham has been targeted at least five times in four consecutive games and has caught three passes in each. In fact, prior to last game, he had registered exactly five RECs in three straight games. While he is not a star by any means, he is respectable and still priced at the absolute minimum on DK. The Seahawks defense is stout but they rank 17^th in DVOA against opposing TEs. Similarly to Ebron, throwing to Gresham may be one of the few ways the Cardinals are able to move the ball against this defense. If spending up elsewhere, Gresham provides a safe floor for a punt.