NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 17

Running Backs (Week 17)

David Johnson – With Le'Veon Bell likely sitting this week out, David Johnson stands out as the above and beyond best play at the RB position. Johnson has managed at least 15.40 DraftKings (DK)/FantasyDraft (FDr) fantasy points in every game so far this season including 30plus in four of his last six outings. Although the Rams defense is no walk in the park in terms of matchup (seventh in rushing defense according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric), Johnson is virtually matchup proof. Since the team has officially been eliminated from the playoffs, they will likely scheme this game like any other, meaning a full allotment of snaps/workload for Johnson.

Bilal Powell – Of all backs who have received at least 100 carries, Bilal Powell ranks second in yards per carry (YPC) behind only LeSean McCoy. The Jets season has been a disaster and therefore the team has no reason to rush back Matt Forte. Since Powell is only the team's second string back, there is no reason for him to hold back on his workload. Additionally, the team will square off against a Bills defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing backs both over the course of the season and during the last two weeks combined. Jay Ajayi just rushed for 200-plus yards against this defense last week after Duke Johnson Jr. caught five passes for 62 yards against them the week before (his third highest fantasy output of the season). What do Johnson and Powell have in common? Well, both are weapons in the passing game out of the backfield. In fact, Powell has actually caught two more passes than Johnson this year. In a game where the Jets should feature Powell, he should be in an excellent spot to succeed as both a runner and a receiver.

Thomas Rawls – Thomas Rawls is the weekly “stream a RB against the 49ers" play although he is dealing with a shoulder injury. Coach Pete Carroll thinks he should be “fine" but on the off-chance that does not suit up, Alex Collins would become a prime value at the position. What really is there to say about this matchup anymore other than the fact the team has allowed 328 yards (or 17-percent more) to opposing backs than the next worst rushing defense and five more TDs. Failing to roster a back against them is the equivalent of leaving free money on the table.

DeAngelo Williams – Since Le'Veon Bell seems destined to sit this week, DeAngelo Williams will be handed the keys to the offense and should be expected to carry the load. The one problem here is Ben Roethlisberger is also expected to sit so the overall effectiveness of the offense should be expected to drop. In other words, Williams should not be expected to fill-in and produce a Bell-esque performance like he normally does because he previously had just been filling in for Bell. Both Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown were active for his performances earlier this season and now neither will be there to complement him. Still, the matchup against the Browns is elite so he should at least be counted upon to exceed his measly $10,400 salary on FDr/$5,500 on DK. If it were not for the 49ers, the Browns would be the worst rushing defense in the league as they have allowed 19 total TDs and 1,911 rushing yards to opposing backs. Lock and load Williams into cash game lineups at the very least.

Frank Gore – Last week, Frank Gore and the Colts offense disappointed as a whole but playing from behind absolutely killed the value of the team's starting RB. In a matchup against the Jaguars at home this week, the threat of the team playing from behind is small-to-nonexistent. In competitive games, old man Gore is still a solid weapon as he had topped 15 fantasy points in each of his past two games prior to the flop against the Raiders. 20 carries are not out of the question in what could be his final game as a professional. If the Colts commit to seeing him go out with a bang, he could have a nice week against a Jaguars defense that ranks 12^th in rushing DVOA, and one he torched for 20.50 fantasy points earlier this season.

Wide Receivers (Week 17)

Mike Evans – One team needing a win badly on Sunday is the 8-7 Buccaneers. With no Thursday Night Football game this week and the Buccaneers playing an early game (1:00pm ET), they will not know their fate prior to the end of the game. In other words, the team will need to focus on winning the game before they can even begin to consider the scenarios of how they actually get into the playoffs. When attempting to beat the Panthers, throwing to a number one WR is an intelligent game plan considering they rank 25^th in DVOA against the position. In the first meeting between these two teams, Evans caught 6-12 targets for 89 yards and a TD and that game was played on the road. All three of Evans' best games this season have come at home whether it be by coincidence or the fact Tampa Bay rarely has to deal with weather concerns. Sure James Bradberry has been playing better football recently but he still grades outside the top 25 at the cornerback position (per Pro Football Focus) and Evans moves around the formation. All-in-all, this is a stellar spot for a player trying to propel his team to the playoffs and that is the ideal setup for starting a player in Week 17.

Michael Thomas – Something has been up with Drew Brees lately as has failed to reach 17 fantasy points in three of his last four games but a shootout with the Falcons should help cure his woes. The last time Brees and company squared off against the Falcons, Brees threw for 376 yards and three TDs. Although Michael Thomas will draw an individual matchup against a solid corner for most of the afternoon (Jalen Collins), the Falcons rank 18^th in DVOA to opposing number one WRs. Typically, Brees finds the open man but Thomas looks to be re-emerging as the top target over the last two weeks having caught 13-18 targets for 150 yards and a TD. In a game that has the upside to be the highest scoring game of the season, fantasy owners will want to roster at least a few players from the contest (especially in tournaments)…starting with Thomas.

Julian Edelman – For what it's worth, Julian Edelman has topped 17 fantasy points in three out of his four Week 17 performances with the Patriots and the team has almost always clinched their playoff fate by that time. Coach Bill Belichick is not a huge believer in sitting players so Julian Edelman is certainly a viable option this week. He will square off against the Dolphins' nickel corner Tony Lippett who has graded outside the top 30 in terms of coverage ability at the position, per Pro Football Focus. In Edelman's first meeting against this team earlier this year, he caught 7-10 targets for 76 yards. Heading into this game, Edelman has been targeted 11-plus times in five of his last six games. When it comes to cash games, there is not a much more reliable option this week.

Jordan Matthews – Having allowed 20-plus points in back-to-back games, the Cowboys defense has looked beatable lately. In the Eagles last meeting against the Cowboys, they managed to score 23 points and Jordan Matthews caught 11-15 targets for 65 yards and a TD. Since the team opened as four point underdogs, it seems likely they will be playing from behind for a majority of the afternoon. If that is the case, Matthews should be targeted heavily once again versus a defense that ranks 17^th in DVOA against number one WRs. His price has sunk all the way to $4,700 on DK so the cost alleviates the risk of the Cowboys simply dominating time of possession. Also, the Eagles rank first in the NFL in time of possession, edging out the Cowboys, so they are really the one team that can compete in that aspect of the game. Expect a respectable performance from an underpriced Matthews.

Brandon LaFell – What the hell is up with this price tag for Brandon LaFell? After seeing 19 targets over the course of the last two weeks, he clearly has emerged as the team's top receiving option in the short term with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert done for the season. The team will solely be playing for pride against a divisional opponent but LaFell does not exactly qualify as a young asset they need to protect so he should see play a normal allotment of snaps. The Ravens secondary is no walk in the park but they are also the weakness of the defense so Dalton should likely come close to the 48 passing attempts he accumulated in the first meeting against this team. If so, LaFell should once again see plenty of volume against a defense that will probably be missing their top corner once again (Jimmy Smith). In Week 16, Antonio Brown torched this defense for 10-96-1, and while LaFell is not Brown, he should still be in a fine spot to at least out-produce this meager price tag.

Tight Ends (Week 17)

Travis Kelce – Assuming the ultra-conservative Coach Andy Reid is willing to play his players for most of the game, Travis Kelce projects as a top three option at the TE position once again. Amazingly, Kelce has topped 100 yards receiving in five of his last six games including an 11 catch, 160 yard day capped off by a TD in Week 16. The Chargers rate as a mid-tier TE defense but Kelce caught six passes for 76 yards against them on Sep. 11. At this point, Kelce is worthy of consideration every single week.

Antonio Gates – With Antonio Gates only one TD away from tying Tony Gonzalez's TD record at the TE position so the team at least has motivation to get him the ball in the final week of the season. Sure the Chiefs shut him down in the first meeting but he already ranks second amongst TE red zone targets before this narrative came into play. Like Kobe Bryant in his final game, there is something to the team wanting to get him the ball in what could possibly be his last game.

Eric Ebron – All of a sudden, Eric Ebron looked like a stud once again on Monday Night Football as he hauled in 8-12 targets for 93 yards. Now, the Lions need to win this game in order to clinch the division so they have all the motivation necessary to win this game. Although the Packers rank seventh in DVOA against TEs, they have allowed the 11^th most fantasy points to the position including five TDs. Especially if Theo Riddick is forced to sit out once again, a healthy amount of volume should be headed Ebron's way.

Dennis Pitta – The Ravens do not plan to rest anyone this week so Dennis Pitta will have the opportunity to once again face a Bengals defense he flopped against just five weeks ago. Over a larger sample size, Pitta should prove to be productive against this defense which has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the TE position and could struggle to maintain drives without both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. At $3,400 on DK, Pitta certainly has tournament upside.

Vernon Davis – Jordan Reed is questionable to play this weekend, but assuming he sits, Vernon Davis should enjoy a bounceback game against a Giants defense that ranks 26^th in DVOA against TEs. Looking at Davis' line last week is a bit misleading because Davis barely missed a TD catch that hit the tip of his fingers. A disappointing outcome very easily could have been respectable had he hauled that pass in. Against a defense that should be forgiving to him, expect him to close out the season on a positive note.