NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Running Backs (Week 4)
Name | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary | FantasyDraft Salary | Week 4 Projected Targets / Touches | Week 4 Projected Ownership % | Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points |
Le'Veon Bell (E, S) | $7,500 | $8,300 | $14,100 | 8, 24 | 20-25% | 32 |
Mark Ingram (S) | $5,900 | $6,800 | $11,000 | 4, 18 | 10-15% | 20 |
Melvin Gordon (E, S, V) | $6,300 | $7,600 | $12,000 | 6, 25 | 35-40% | 27 |
LeGarrette Blount (C, V) | $5,000 | $7,500 | $9,900 | 0, 22 | 5-10% | 17 |
Carlos Hyde (S, V) | $4,200 | $6,800 | $8,400 | 3, 24 | 10-15% | 20 |
Le'Veon Bell – Well, DeAngelo Williams, it was a good run but the starter is back and active so it's time for you to take a seat. When Le'Veon Bell draws the start, he's always a threat to compete for RB1 of the week because of his extreme workload and ability to contribute heavily in the passing game. Just a season ago, Bell caught 83 passes on 105 targets for 854 yards receiving and three touchdowns (TDs). In other words, Bell fared as a WR2 in PPR plus he put up RB1 numbers in the running game: 290 attempts (ATTs), 1,361 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs. So far, the Chiefs have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing backs and the Steelers are listed as 6.0 point home favorites. People are anxious to get him back in their lineups and I don't think they should waste any time. If Bell is active, Bell belongs in fantasy lineups.
Mark Ingram – After catching his first career TD on Monday Night Football and carrying the ball a season-high 15 times, Mark Ingram is back in play next week against a Chargers defense that has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing backs this year. On the road, Drew Brees tends to throw the ball less and the teams becomes more reliant upon the run. Facing a team susceptible against the run and also tough against the pass, the game plan should be a no-brainer: feed Ingram early and often. Since he is now consistently involved in the passing game, he possesses a safe floor. As per usual, he's a better cash option than tournament play, but he's a rock solid option in all formats.
Melvin Gordon – Speaking of rock solid, is there anyone who will not be playing Melvin Gordon this upcoming week after witnessing what the Falcons' RBs did to the Saints on Monday? The duo scored a combined four TDs and rushed for a whopping 194 yards on just 26 carries. This is not an anomaly either because the Saints defense allowed the most yards per carry (YPC) on any team in 2015. After scoring four TDs in three weeks and clearly moving into the workhorse role, it is difficult to identify any negatives to this matchup other than his ownership percentage. Still, I just can't see fading him everywhere at a price that is still affordable comparatively to the combination of matchup and workload.
LeGarrette Blount – Folks, Coach Bill Belichick is using a RB in a predictable way to this point…it's a damn miracle. However, take into account he has been missing his starting QB (Tom Brady) so establishing a run game has given him the best chance to win during this stretch. With Jacoby Brissett likely under center once again, the team will have no choice but to ride bell cow LeGarrette Blount once again. Although Blount has yet to be targeted this season, he is averaging 4.0 YPC on 75 carries through three games with four rushing TDs. Against a defense David Johnson just stomped on, Blount is an excellent tournament pivot especially in PPR formats. Since he will not be catching passes, most will probably overlook him, but he's got a Marshawn Lynch feel to him (at least in the short term).
Carlos Hyde – The 49ers suck so most probably overlooked Carlos Hyde's 23 ATT, 88 yard, two rushing TD and 23.30 fantasy point Week 3. This is noteworthy because he actually contributed in a game where the team got way behind quickly (they trailed 24-3 at halftime). Usually, that means Shaun Draughn territory but nope…Hyde still got his. In Week 4, the 49ers play the Cowboys at home and are only listed as three point underdogs. One would have to think he gets a full workload in a close game if he'll get one even in a blowout. Price is the most enticing aspect here as he is a workload back priced at $4,200 on DraftKings (DK) and $8,400 on FantasyDraft (FDr)…not nearly enough for a back touching the ball 20-plus times. Due to the price and seemingly favorable game script, Hyde is as safe as they come.
Wide Receivers (Week 4)
Name | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary | FantasyDraft Salary | Week 4 Projected Targets | Week 4 Projected Ownership % | Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points |
Antonio Brown (E, S) | $9,700 | $9,400 | $18,300 | 15 | 25-30% | 35 |
Alshon Jeffery (C) | $7,500 | $8,200 | $14,100 | 10 | 5-10% | 26 |
T.Y. Hilton (E, V, S) | $7,000 | $7,600 | $13,300 | 13 | 15-20% | 28 |
Jeremy Maclin (S, C) | $6,000 | $6,900 | $11,300 | 10 | 10-15% | 24 |
Terrelle Pryor (V) | $4,300 | $7,000 | $8,400 | 9 | 30-35% | 22 |
Antonio Brown – The Steelers played the absolute worst game they're going to play all season last week but that didn't matter to Antonio Brown. In mostly garbage time, Brown racked up 12 RECS and 140 yards en route to his ninth 20-plus fantasy point output in his last 14 games. The Steelers opened as 6.0 point favorites on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 and this feels like a game where they should bounce back in a big way following an embarrassment. Even though one of his first three games has been a quiet one (Week 2), Brown leads the league in both targets (40) and RECs (24). He's simply the best receiver in the game by a large margin and the Chiefs allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year. Any team that does not possess a true top corner is a threat to get burned by this monster and the Chiefs certainly apply as large road underdogs.
Alshon Jeffery – The Bears aren't exactly a team everyone is gushing over so their assets are naturally going to go under-owned on a weekly basis. Brian Hoyer clearly is not Aaron Rodgers but the Lions have now allowed 27-plus points in two of their first three games including four passing TDs to Rodgers and the Packers last week. Their number one target, Jordy Nelson, had a field day and went off for 100-plus yards and two TDs so it's not unthinkable that Alshon Jeffery could do the same. Zach Miller scored a pair of TDs last week which could dissuade people from using him but he's still the focus of this offense. At home, the Bears have more of a chance and advantage due to the tough turf of Soldier Field that only they are used to. Jeffery is never a sure thing due to the bad offense and his injury issues but there certainly is a possibility he goes off against this subpar defense. In tournaments, he is a nice way to differentiate from some of the bigger names.
T.Y. Hilton – One name you shouldn't differentiate from is T.Y. Hilton who put on a show in Week 3. He is only included on sites that include the London game but he's an absolute must-start. Sans Donte Moncrief, this passing offense is going to have to rely on Hilton all the more heavily moving forward. Jacksonville's defense has been a joke including against opposing WRs; they have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to the position. Coming off a eight REC, 174 yard day capped off by a TD, you can bet Andrew Luck will be targeted him early and often once again.
Jeremy Maclin – Game script can be a large part of projecting a player and this is a game the Chiefs look to be playing from behind. Therefore, they'll have to throw more than they are typically comfortable with. This creates an opportunity for both Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin to make a large fantasy impact this week. Jordan Matthews caught a TD pass against this defense last week and Ross Cockrell is tough but beatable. At $6,000 on DK/$11,300 on FantasyDraft, he is priced like a low-end WR2 and he rates more on the high-end. In each game so far, Maclin has been targeted at least seven times and he's gained 63-plus receiving yards twice. The team literally relies on their TE, their top WR and their backs in the passing game and no one else, so expect Maclin to be kept busy.
Terrelle Pryor – At this point, Terrelle Pryor is a low-end QB2 combined with a borderline WR1 mixed into one. Last week, Pryor played 82 snaps: 14 at QB, one at half back, four at slot receiver and the rest as an outside receiver. He completed 3-5 passes for 35 yards, rushed four times for 21 yards and a TD and even caught 8-14 targets for 144 yards. In this role, Pryor demands an expensive price tag because he is the main focus on offense regardless of where he is lining up. Yet again, he is priced as a scrub in the upcoming week so it would behoove you not to roster him, especially in cash games.
Tight Ends (Week 4)
Name | DraftKings Salary | FanDuel Salary | FantasyDraft Salary | Week 4 Projected Targets | Week 4 Projected Ownership % | Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points |
Jordan Reed (E, S) | $6,300 | $7,500 | $12,000 | 9 | 15-20% | 20 |
Greg Olsen (E, S) | $6,000 | $7,900 | $11,300 | 10 | 30-35% | 25 |
Kyle Rudolph (C, V) | $3,400 | $5,600 | $6,700 | 8 | 5-10% | 17 |
Coby Fleener (E, S, V) | $3,200 | $5,400 | $6,300 | 7 | 10-15% | 19 |
Zach Miller (V) | $2,700 | $5,000 | $5,200 | 8 | 10-25% | 16 |
Jordan Reed – With Rob Gronkowski back, there now is a discussion of which top tight end (TE) is worth paying up for on a given week. Gronkowski was finally activated last week only to play the role of a decoy as he caught zero passes. Meanwhile, according to Adam Levitan on Twitter, Jordan Reed is playing 82.8-percent of the team's offensive snaps and averaging 8.0 targets per game. Last year, he played 74.9-percent of the snaps and saw 8.1 targets per game. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has attempted the second most passes in the league and the team is listed as 9.5 point home favorites against the Browns. Only two teams (Chargers, Cowboys) have allowed more RECs to opposing TEs this year so this is setting up as the Reed 2016 breakout. If extra salary is available, don't be shy to pay up for him.
Greg Olsen – Reed is an even better play this week because the ultra-chalk is going to be Greg Olsen against a Falcons defense that just got owned by Coby Fleener. After only catching 3-14 targets in his first two games, Fleener caught seven passes for 109 yards and a TD against the lowly Falcons. No TE has scored more fantasy points than Olsen this season and the matchup is elite so there's really no much more to say. Use him everywhere if you believe in him but there's a case to be made for fading him in GPPs due to the ownership percentage.
Kyle Rudolph – One TE finally emerging as a true TE1 is Kyle Rudolph who hasn't scored more than five TDs since 2012. Sam Bradford has at least temporarily solidified the QB position which Teddy Bridgewater relinquished due to a season-ending injury. In three consecutive games to open the year, Rudolph has been targeted eight-plus times including three red zone targets in Week 3 alone. With the team looking for him in the end zone, mostly because the running game isn't going anywhere, he is a scoring threat on a weekly basis moving forward. Although the Giants defense looks vastly improved, they allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs last year. They rank middle of the pack this year but the Vikings simply have to use him by default because he's their only viable large target.
Coby Fleener – Trusting Coby Fleener on a weekly basis is damn near impossible because he struggles with the drops. Nevertheless, Week 3 proved the upside is still there in a Drew Brees offense. No team has allowed more RECs to opposing TEs than the Chargers so the PPR upside is aplenty in this upcoming matchup. Overall, the Chargers have allowed the sixth most RECs to TEs and Fleener's price tag has remained in the low-end TE2 range. If you have faith that the breakout performance is a sign of things to come, he's certainly viable. His volatility just scares the living crap out of me to the point that I'll be fading him 100-percent in cash games (plus Olsen is just so safe).
Zach Miller – Brian Hoyer certainly seems like he's locked onto this guy, especially in the red zone, after developing a rapport with Gary Barnidge for a stretch last year. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing TEs than the Lions so the matchup is as good as its ever going to get. As long as Zach Miller remains healthy, he should consistently flirt with TE1 viability. Yet again, there isn't a strong case to be made against this guy especially due to the incredibly affordable price tag across the industry. If punting the position to spend up elsewhere, Miller is the preferred option.
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