NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 5

Running Backs (Week 5)

Le'Veon Bell – In his first week back, Le'Veon Bell immediately was thrown back into his vintage role as the workhorse back for the Steelers considering he played 88.5-percent of the snaps. In total, Bell played 54 snaps to DeAngelo Williams' 17 and it's where he played the snaps that are so noteworthy: 39 in the backfield, seven as an outside wide receiver (WR), seven in the slot and one at tight end (TE) according to Nathan Jahnke on Twitter. As if he wasn't targeted enough before, his targets are sure to increase in the long run if this sort of usage continues. To this point, the Jets have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing backs including the ninth most receptions (RECs) to the position. He's as safe as they come on most weeks because of the catches and he also happens to be one of the most talented runners in the game as well. Lock and load him into lineups even at a sizable ownership.

Todd Gurley – For the first time this year, Case Keenum targeted Todd Gurley more than three times which led to him catching more than one pass for the first time this season as well. In fact, he caught all five of his targets for 49 yards on top of his 19 carries. Although the Bills have only allowed 3.6 yards per carry (YPC) to this point, they have allowed the ninth most RECs (22) and 11^th most fantasy points per game to the running back (RB) position. Assuming the uptick in usage in the passing game is for real, and there's no reason to believe it shouldn't be, this feels like a safe spot to deploy him. With the healthy volume he is receiving (fourth most carries of any back), he is bound to break a long run and/or bust out one of these weeks. $12,300 is the cheapest he has been priced all season so this is an excellent spot to deploy him in cash games due to the favorable matchup.

C.J. Anderson – Trevor Siemian almost assuredly will miss Week 5 so the Broncos would be wise to ride C.J. Anderson against the Falcons and their 28^th ranked defense against opposing RBs, per Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic. Only the Saints, Redskins, Chargers, Colts and Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the positon and this is somewhat similar to the Patriots situation to begin the year. When their quarterback (QB) situation worsened, they decided to rely more on the running game. One would think a similar phenomenon would occur here if the coaching staff has half a clue and let him approach his season-high (24) in touches if not exceed it. At home, the Broncos are favored by 6.0 points, so game script is even in his favor. There isn't much not to like about the matchup this week.

Jordan Howard – To signify how drastically Jordan Howard is dominating the touches in the Bears backfield sans Jeremy Langford and Ka'Deem Carey, Howard played 63 snaps to just six for Joique Bell in Week 4. At this point, Howard is the definition of a workhorse back and he'll draw a fantastic matchup against the Colts on Sunday. Last week, T.J. Yeldon managed a respectable 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) and 11.5 yards per catch against them after having not surpassed 4.0 YPC or 7.5 yards per catch in any of his first three games…including a matchup against the Saints who are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back (RB) position. Before Langford went down with an ankle injury, he failed to exceed 3.4 YPC in either of his first two games. Meanwhile, Howard's YPC for the season currently hits at 5.1 and he hasn't sunk below 4.8 in any of his three games thus far…including a 23 carry, 111 yard performance in Week 4. He's quite clearly the best back on the team, being targeted in the passing game and receiving all the goal line work. In a matchup against a Colts team making everyone look like a star back, Howard is one of the safest bets for RB2 production on the entire slate (and he's still incredibly cheap).

Jerick McKinnon – 21 total touches in Week 4 jump off the page as Jerick McKinnon could turn into a fantasy football force if he were to continue to see a workload of this magnitude. Against a Giants team that ranked in the bottom two of fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs this season, McKinnon torched them for 85 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), a rushing TD and even three catches for 10 yards. Consequently, his price tag barely increased on both DraftKings (DK) and FantasyDraft (FDr) even though he will face a Texans team that has allowed the 10^th most rushing yards this season (400). Matt Asiata could always vulture TDs and his usage could drastically increase due to an unexpected game script on any week but there's virtually no risk at $7,800 on FDr.

Wide Receivers (Week 5)

Antonio Brown – As per usual, it's hard to explain just how/why the best player in daily fantasy football is the best. His QB, Ben Roethlisberger, absolutely loves playing at home and it shows in the statistics. All of Roethlisberger's three-plus TD games came at home (sans Week 17 against the Browns) last season. Additionally, Roethlisberger is tied for the fifth most five-TD games in NFL history (five total) and all of them have come at home. When Roethlisberger succeeds, Brown is quite literally on the receiving end of it. The Steelers offense finally looked unstoppable last week and Darrelle Revis is looking questionable at best to play this weekend. With the Steelers listed as 7.0 point favorites, expect their offense and Brown to keep on rolling.

Jordy Nelson – Similarly to Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers seems to have an affinity for playing in Lambeau Field as well and he definitely performs better when Jordy Nelson is in uniform. . In 2014 with a healthy Nelson, Rodgers threw for 4,381 yards and 38 TDs to just five interceptions (INTs). The following season when Nelson was injured, those numbers depreciated to 3,821 yards, 31 TDs and eight INTs. Furthermore, Rodgers threw for 2,122 yards and 17 TDs in Lambeau Field last year compared to just 1,699 yards and 14 TDs on the road last year after producing even more extreme splits in 2014 (2,334 yards and 25 TDs at home versus 2,047 yards and 13 TDs on the road). The Giants defense is improved but the Packers are listed as 7.0 point favorites at home in a game with a projected 47.0 point over/under. Oh by the way, Nelson has caught at least five passes and scored a TD in every game so far this season. Lock him in if looking for both a high floor and high ceiling.

Brandon Marshall – The absence of Eric Decker only assures more targets are headed Brandon Marshall's way and, more importantly, red zone targets which Decker so often steals from him. Even with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing terribly over the past two weeks and having to split targets with two other decent receivers, Marshall still ranks 10^th at the position in targets. Without Decker, that numbers is bound to go up, and the Jets will almost assuredly be playing from behind against the Steelers in Heinz Field (especially if last week is any indication). Although he could prove to be a garbage time hero, the production should come in this matchup. For a guy who caught over 100 passes and produced 1500-plus yards in a similar two receiver setup last year, he is awfully affordable at just $13,300 on FantasyDraft.

Julian Edelman – With his old pal Tom Brady back under center, Julian Edelman is primed to bounce back as the every week cash option he once was. Playing alongside Brady, Edelman has averaged 6.62 receptions per game over the past three seasons which spans 39 games. During that stretch, Edelman stayed healthy for 14-plus games in two different seasons and finished with at least 92 RECs in each. He is Brady's move-the-chains option and one Brady trusts (which is quite important). Now, Brady will return for a matchup against the Browns and the last two QBs to face them have went off. Ryan Tannehill threw for 300-plus yards and three TDs in Week 3 and Kirk Cousins torched them for three TDs last week as well. It shouldn't take Brady long to get acclimated which means targets should be headed Edelman's way early and often. Although Edelman won't come cheap, he shouldn't as Brady's clear favorite receiver in a dominant offense versus a susceptible defense. He is an elite cash option as per usual with his crony under center once again.

Dontrelle Inman – For the second consecutive week, Dontrelle Inman led the injury-ridden Chargers receiving core in snaps in Week 4. Inman played 53 snaps in Week 3, slightly edging out Tyrell Williams (52) and Travis Benjamin (44). Yet again in Week 4, Inman's 67 snaps edged out Williams' 65 and Benjamin's 53. Considering the talent, or lack thereof, left amongst those catching passes, it may be time to just start rostering the guy seeing the field most often. Interestingly, Inman ranked drastically below the other two in terms of yards per target heading into this week: Inman 2.1, Williams 7.2 and Benjamin 8.2. His average depth of target (aDOT) ranked just among all receivers who had played at least 25-percent of the snaps heading into this week as well. In Week 4, things changed drastically for him: his aDOT remained virtually the same (10.4 versus 10.2) but his points per opportunity increased to 0.56 and his YPT increased to a whopping 12.0. This led to seven receptions (RECs) on 10 targets for 120 yards and a TD against a miserable Saints defense. Admittedly, this situation is difficult to project moving forward because none are special sort of talents. If he is used similarly to last week, he should blow away his price tag and therefore he should be targeted in GPPs once again this week. If Philip Rivers develops a rapport with him, we could be talking about an upper-echelon WR2 before too long.

Tight Ends (Week 5)

Rob Gronkowski – Just like the aforementioned Edelman, Brady's return greatly enhances the prospects of Rob Gronkowski moving forward. However, there are some warning signs here. First, Gronkowski ran just 14 routes last week because he was asked to block on a majority of his snaps. Secondly, he has caught just one pass for 11 yards in two weeks of being active which could signify he isn't fully healthy. Even so, Brady and he have one of the most special connections in all of the game; Gronkowski literally has scored the most TDs per-game of any player in history. Brady's presence is sure to revamp his fantasy value so rostering him this week is the equivalent of attempting to get ahead of the curve.

Jordan Reed – If you're a “need to see it to believe it" kind of person, then fading Gronkowski for the logical alternative makes all the sense in the world. Jordan Reed proved he hadn't developed an allergy for the end zone after all as he caught nine passes last week for 73 yards and two TDs. The only worrisome statistic heading into last week was his depreciated share of red zone targets. Otherwise, his snap counts and overall targets were perfectly in line with last year's breakout numbers. To this point, the Ravens rank as a bottom six defense in terms of fantasy points allowed the position but they have only faced Charles Clay, Gary Barnidge, Julius Thomas and Clive Walford. Facing an elite tight end (TE) is a whole different ballgame and Reed is a scary fade when locked in.

Dennis Pitta – On the other side of the matchup, Dennis Pitta and company get a decent draw against a Redskins team that has allowed slightly below the league average in terms of fantasy points to the TE position. Coming off a quiet week, Pitta's ownership percentage is probably going to drop considerably…especially because Crockett Gillmore caught nearly as many passes in Week 4 as Pitta did. Still, Pitta led the team in both routes run and targets once again so this can just be chalked up to a poor outing. Although he's priced at TE7, I have him projected as the fourth highest scoring TE in Week 5.

Zach Ertz – “Honest" Abe Lincoln could not tell a lie and the Detroit Lions cannot defend an opposing TE (and haven't been able to for a long while now). Over their past 20 games, the Lions have surrendered 18 receiving TDs to the position. While this is only Zach Ertz's first game back since a rib injury, Carson Wentz is playing unbelievable ball. Amazingly, Pro Football Focus has graded him as the top QB in the NFL. Evidently, Trey Burton has developed into a nice pass-catching option at the position as well in Ertz's absence, so this is more of a tournament-only option for a multitude of reasons. Nevertheless, the Lions' futility against the position is difficult to overlook and Ertz is a force to be reckoned with when healthy…let's just hope he truly is.

Eric Ebron – Despite only having scored one TD this year, Eric Ebron currently ranks as TE7 in terms of fantasy points per game and TE6 in terms of total fantasy points. His role is clearly solidified in this new look Lions passing offense as both a possession and red zone option for Matthew Stafford. While the one TD isn't overly impressive, he has been targeted at least once in the red zone in each week to this point. The Eagles have allowed the absolute fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs to this point but only rank fourth toughest against the position, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. Here are the TEs they have faced to this point: Gary Barnidge (with Robert Griffin III under center), Zach Miller and Jesse James. Considering Ebron has been targeted at least five times in each game, fading him solely based on the matchup would be foolish. The price tag accounts for the subpar matchup (priced as TE13 on FDr) so there is still plenty of upside assuming he can manage an average to better than average day. If spending down in cash games, there's still value to be had here.