NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 7

Running Backs (Week 7)

Le'Veon Bell – Ben Roethlisberger left the team's Week 6 game with a torn meniscus and he underwent a meniscectomy on Monday. Obviously this means he will not suit up against the Patriots in Week 7 so the team will be forced to lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell. In the four games Landry Jones has attempted 15-plus passes since Bell has been the starter, Bell has averaged 18.43 fantasy points per game compared to 20.45 in the 43 games with other QBs under center (mostly Roethlisberger). In other words, he has still been productive and still provides fantasy owners with a safe floor. He should be heavily involved in the passing attack especially if the Patriots cover the seven point spread. Regardless, he should see a huge workload and is absolutely worthy of cash game consideration as per usual.

DeMarco Murray – The superior play at the RB position to Bell this week is none other than DeMarco Murray against the porous Colts run defense. Last week, this defense woke up the sleeping giant that is Lamar Miller who had been garnering a giant workload without many overly positive results. Murray, on the other hand, is averaging the fourth most fantasy points per game of anyone at the position and has caught more passes than any RB not named Giovani Bernard or Theo Riddick. This is notable because the Colts have been torched by opposing backs in the passing game to the tune of 33 receptions (RECs), 346 receiving yards and a league-worst four receiving TDs. In poker terms, this matchup is basically the “nuts" for one of the best backs in the game.

Doug Martin – Using players in their first game back from injury is always a bit nerve-racking but backup Charles Sims is hurt so Doug Martin is likely to be thrown back into the fire immediately. The matchup is juicy as well against a 49ers team that just allowed LeSean McCoy to do legitimately whatever he wanted en route to 37.20 fantasy points. Each of the last five weeks, the 49ers have allowed an opposing back to exceed 100 yards rushing, partially because their offense ranks in the bottom three of time of possession. With their defense on the field so often, teams are able to run additional plays and RBs earn more opportunities than per usual…well that and the defense is bad at stopping the run. The combination makes any RB against this team potentially deadly and Martin is worth the shot this week especially in tournaments. If Martin does not return, Jacquizz Rodgers is in play once again.

Spencer Ware – No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing backs the Saints so it is easy to understand the appeal of rostering Spencer Ware. However, the presence of Jamaal Charles muddies the waters a little, right? Wrong. Reportedly, Charles is still not confident in the strength of his knee after offseason surgery so the fact he only played 15 snaps last week should not come as a huge surprise. Meanwhile, Ware played 39 snaps, carried the ball 24 times for 131 yards and a TD in Week 6 and even caught two passes for 32 yards. As Charles gets healthier he may be eased into a slightly larger role but the team simply has no reason to take opportunities away from Ware. In fact, Ware is averaging a Charles-esque 5.3 YPC on 78 carries this year. Vegas projects the Chiefs as seven point favorites at home against the Saints which is perfect for potential game flow for a heavy workload. If the masses are worried about Charles they are going to be sorry because Ware is an excellent play in all formats.

Duke Johnson Jr. – In Week 6, Duke Johnson Jr. scored his first career rushing TD but, most of all, he continued to do what he does best: catch passes. Once again, Johnson caught four-plus passes for the fourth time this season and gained 56 yards receiving. The upcoming matchup against the Bengals is the reason to consider Johnson as the Bengals have quietly allowed the sixth most receiving yards to backs and the second most receiving TDs (three). Those weaknesses in their rushing defense obviously favors the skill set of Johnson as opposed to Isaiah Crowell and therefore he stands out as a great option for cheap (especially on sites with full PPR scoring).

Wide Receivers (Week 7)

Julio Jones – The Falcons offense is a well-oiled machine this season as they now have amazingly lit up the Broncos and Seahawks defenses on consecutive weeks. Hell, the Seahawks had allowed the fewest total yards per game prior to Matt Ryan's 330-plus yard, three TD explosion against them. If they can explode against Richard Sherman and company then a Jason Verrett-less Chargers defense surrendering 280 passing yards per game should be easy money. The Chargers have allowed seven TDs already to receivers and Jones should match up against Steve Williams who has graded outside the top 30 at the cornerback position this season, per Pro Football Focus. Williams is good but not great and Jones showed us just a few weeks ago against the Panthers why he is worthy of starting against all non-elite corners. With Ryan lighting up every defense in his path at this point, expect him to connect with Jones early and often against a beatable passing defense at home on Sunday.

A.J. Green – After a down year in 2015, Joe Haden has reverted back to the dominant corner he once was. With that being said, Haden injured his groin in practice last week and is now listed as week-to-week meaning it is unlikely he suits up against the Bengals. Consequently, A.J. Green should be able to roam free against a middle-of-the-road secondary that has already allowed eight TDs to opposing WRs. For what it's worth, Green exploded in his last meeting against the Browns for 128 yards and a TD. Without Haden, it is tough to envision a scenario where Green is slowed down in this divisional matchup.

Allen Robinson – This is the make or break week for Allen Robinson because last week's flop against the Bears was quite concerning. In 2016, Robinson has failed to exceed 72 yards receiving in any game although he was on a bit of hot streak heading into Week 6; he had scored three TDs in two weeks. Now, he and the Jaguars will square off against a Raiders team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs by a wide margin through six weeks. Robinson is averaging 9.4 targets per game so the volume has been there and should pay off in the long run. Although the results have not been unbelievable to this point but this should be the week Robinson busts out for his first 100-plus yard performance. If not, he is officially broken.

Cameron Meredith – Okay so the Bears play on Thursday night but Cameron Meredith is in such an excellent spot I felt he deserved a mention. Eddie Royal injured his toe last week and did not practice on Monday so he appears unlikely to play after he had already been battling through a calf problem as well. The Packers caught up to the Raiders last week in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs and have now allowed eight TDs to the position. Alshon Jeffery just does not have the mojo this season and this has led to 12-plus targets, nine-plus RECs and 100-plus yards for Meredith in consecutive games. Especially with the game in Green Bay, the Bears should absolutely be playing from behind which should only enhance his potential opportunity. At only $4,700 on DraftKings, Meredith is more of a solid WR2 than a WR4 (which is how he is priced).

Tyrell Williams – Even in a quiet Thursday Night Football performance against a solid Broncos secondary, Tyrell Williams caught a pass and was tackled at the half yard line. His day was almost much more productive and would have likely prompted more interest in him this week. This bodes well for sharp fantasy owners because Williams leads the receiving core in red zone targets, has played more snaps than any pass-catcher not named Dontrelle Inman and handily leads the unit in yards per target (YPT) at 10.4. He is best fantasy option of the group and the JFalcons have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to the position. At just $4,400 on DraftKings (DK), his upside stretches far beyond his price.

Tight Ends (Week 7)

Rob Gronkowski – Well, he is back. Rob Gronkowski exceeded 160 yards and scored a TD last week in just his second game with Tom Brady this season. He is the best TE in football and is totally immune to matchups (although this one is about average). In a game where the team is implied to score 26.3 points and are listed as 7.0 point favorites on the road, Gronkowski is easily the safest play at the position if the salary is available.

Travis Kelce – Travis Kelce is a difficult player to project because Coach Andy Reid is just 100-percent risk averse and he will not throw the football unless he absolutely has to. Both Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce drew elite matchups last week against the Raiders and completely flopped. Both players were targeted three times and caught three passes and yet that was all she wrote. While the Saints defense looks improved against the position, they are still just average at best. If Coach Reid decides this is a game where he wants to air it out a bit, Kelce should produce. Otherwise, it could end up being another flop. Due to his volatile nature in this offense, Kelce is best left for large field GPPs.

Hunter Henry – Probably my favorite play at this position this week is Hunter Henry who has now scored in back-to-back-to-back contests heading into the tilt against the Falcons. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing TEs than the Falcons but the injury to Antonio Gates is the biggest Henry selling point in this contest. Following the Thursday Night Football game, a report surfaced suggesting Gates is still hampered by the hamstring injury that forced him to miss games earlier in the season. Henry has been targeted in seven-plus times in two of the past three games and he has eclipsed 60 yards in each of those three contests. He has been lining up all over the field including at WR so Offensive Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is trying his damnedest to keep him involved. At this price tag, the floor alone justifies rostering him in such a favorable setup. Clearly, his ceiling includes a respectable yardage total and finding the end zone once again.

Vernon Davis – The Lions one of the worst handful of defensive units at covering opposing TEs and have been since the start of last season. Vernon Davis' value hinges on the availability of Jordan Reed but this is Reed's sixth concussion over the course of his last six seasons. Basically, his outlook is grim at best and Davis will probably draw the start once again. If he does, he will look to build on the 50 yard performance capped by a TD in Week 6. Against this defense, it is well within reason he could top those numbers.

Jack Doyle – Dwayne Allen is listed as week-to-week with a sprained ankle so all the TE targets in the near future should be headed Jack Doyle's way. Instead of splitting with Allen, Doyle should enjoy an uptick in targets and last week it led to 53 yards and a TD as he converted all four targets in RECs. He plays with one of the better QBs in the league and is listed at the bare minimum on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft. If that does not justify a price play alone then I am not sure what does.