NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Running Backs (Week 9)
Name | Week 9 Projected Targets / Touches | Week 9 Projected Ownership % | Week 9 Projected Fantasy Points |
Ezekiel Elliott (E, S) | 4, 28 | 25-30% | 33 |
DeMarco Murray (E, S) | 7, 28 | 15-20% | 28 |
Devontae Booker (S) | 6, 21 | 10-15% | 25 |
Jay Ajayi (E, S, V) | 3, 25 | 10-15% | 25 |
Theo Riddick (C, V) | 7, 16 | 0-5% | 18 |
Ezekiel Elliott – For the first time in five weeks, Ezekiel Elliott failed to reach 130 yards rushing last game. Is there something wrong with him? Nope. He still managed 96 yards rushing and his “flop" against a tough Eagles defense still resulted in 18.80 fantasy points. In Week 9, the Cowboys will square off against a Browns defense that has surrendered the third most fantasy points to RBs including the second most total TDs (12). Even though the Browns just acquired Jamie Collins, it is extremely unlikely he comes in and fixes all of the team's defensive ailment in a week. Running behind a dominant offensive line, Elliott is an explosive talent and can dominate any opponent. The Browns are not exactly a formidable foe so expect Elliott to revert back to his true RB1 self.
DeMarco Murray – The only obstacle standing in DeMarco Murray's way is his health this weekend. According to Jim Wyatt on Twitter, the Titans will “monitor" Murray in practice this week as he deals with an injured toe. Should he sit, obviously Derrick Henry would garner a healthy amount of ownership (and rightfully so). However, it sounds like Murray will play and this is excellent news against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing backs. Coincidentally, 197 yards receiving rank 12th among all RBs and the Chargers have also allowed 10 rushing TDs and the sixth most fantasy points to the position. Assuming he plays without limitations, the sky is the limit.
Devontae Booker – Devontae Booker will “go through some more tests" but he anticipates he will be fine for Sunday's tilt against the Raiders who rank 27th in rush defense according to DVOA. To this point, the Raiders have allowed the third most yards per carry (YPC) of any defense (4.8) and the fifth most rushing yards per game (125.0). With news C.J. Anderson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn meniscus, Booker is clearly the lead back moving forward. It does not matter that his price tag rose by almost double because this week's tag is much closer to fair value than last week's (which is why he has 80-plus percent owned across all formats). The chalk from the week before always ends up under-owned the following week and I expect Booker to follow that trend. Although he only averaged 2.9 YPC last week, his workload is solidified enough (especially in the passing game) to the point where there is no need to worry about him totally flopping (barring injury).
Jay Ajayi – Due to the bye week, some may have forgotten the absolutely ridiculous run Jay Ajayi has been on. As a refresher course, Ajayi has rushed for 200-plus yards in back-to-back games and oh by the way Arian Foster retired last week as well. This backfield is all his moving forward and the Jets present nothing more than a middle of the road matchup to opposing RBs. In fact, they rank 17th in fantasy points allowed per game to the position so they are as close to neutral as a matchup can get. For a player receiving the lion's share of the workload, his price is actually pretty reasonable, especially considering he was fantasy's RB1 from Weeks 6-7. It all could be a hoax or he could be the real deal and he is at least worth rostering in tournaments in order to find outl.
Theo Riddick – Probably due to Theo Riddick missing a few weeks, he returned to just one-percent ownership in FantasyDraft GPPs in Week 8. To the 99-percent who faded him, that was a grave mistake. Since he is not a true workhorse back, his skill set gets drastically overlooked but it should be noted he finished as RB18 in PPR formats just a season ago. He caught 80 passes which led all players at the RB position and he clearly plans to catch plenty more this season as evident by his eight receptions (RECs) in Week 8. None of the other backs are solid enough talents to expect them to be successful establishing the run on any given week so Matthew Stafford has no choice but to use the short passing game to his advantage. If Riddick gets the ball in space, he is explosive, and Jordan Howard proved on Monday Night Football that explosive backs can be successful against the Vikings. While the defense he is facing is stout, his skill set translates directly to the scoring format and he should prove to be under-owned in tournaments once again. Even if the Vikings are able to limit his yardage, racking up the RECs should not be an issue.
Wide Receivers (Week 9)
Name | Week 9 Projected Targets | Week 9 Projected Ownership % | Week 9 Projected Fantasy Points |
Antonio Brown (E, S) | 15 | 25-30% | 34 |
T.Y. Hilton (E) | 13 | 10-15% | 30 |
Dez Bryant (E, C) | 13 | 10-15% | 25 |
Jarvis Landry | 11 | 15-20% | 22 |
Sterling Shepard (C, V) | 9 | 0-5% | 18 |
Antonio Brown – With Ben Roethlisberger expected back, it is time to fire up old faithful Antonio Brown as a rock solid WR1. In 77 career games with Roethlisberger under center, Brown has averaged 6.83 receptions (RECs) per game and 19.45 fantasy points compared to just 4.57 RECs and 11.2 fantasy points per game with someone else starting at QB. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and the most TDs. It is blast off time for Brown and the Steelers offense.
T.Y. Hilton – T.Y. Hilton was quiet last week because he sustained a hamstring injury and attempted to fight through it like a true warrior. It seems likely he will take it easy early in the week in practice in order to fix the issue and should be ready to go this weekend in what should be a shootout against the Packers (54.0 point over/under). Sure Julio Jones just struggled against the Packers but he suffered an injury mid-game and was forced to fight through it. Had he been healthy for the entirety of a game, there likely would have been a different result. With others needing to replace his production, Mohamed Sanu enjoyed a monster performance against this secondary instead to the tune of nine RECs (on 10 targets) for 84 yards and a TD. For Hilton's purposes, Sanu has a lot more in common with him because he is a smaller receiver who moves around the formation but also plays primarily out of the slot. If Sanu can succeed in this matchup, you are damn right Hilton can as well.
Dez Bryant – On Sunday Night Football, Dez Bryant was greeted back to the football field by his QB with a whopping 14 targets of which Bryant only caught four. Still, those four were good enough for 113 yards and a game-tying TD. Look, Tony Romo is likely not going to start another game for the Cowboys this season so he is going to need to build on the chemistry with Dak Prescott. If last week was any indication, he is going to be just fine and he will draw a matchup against the porous Browns' secondary in Week 9. If recent performances against the Browns are any indication, Bryant should be destined to go “HAM" against this defense.
Jarvis Landry – Last season, Jarvis Landry and the Dolphins squared off against the Jets twice and he produced mixed results; one game he was limited to 4-40 on 12 targets and the second game he bounced back with 13 RECs (on 16 targets) for 165 yards and a TD. If Coach Adam Gase is able to scheme similarly in this one, Landry should get back to his seven-REC-or-better persona and prove to be a cash game beast as per usual.
Sterling Shepard – In terms of DVOA, the Eagles rate as the second toughest defense against opposing number one WRs. Against number twos? Just 24th overall. This creates an opportunity for Sterling Shepard, who has been awfully quiet since Week 3, to bounce back in a big way. Is he a high floor option? Absolutely not as he has shown in past weeks he can flop on any given week. Nevertheless, his RECs have been trending upward over the last three games and he is simply due. Rostering him is equivalent to betting on his supreme talent the Coach Bob McAdoo has now had two weeks to scheme for this Eagles matchup. If there ever were a time to roster this kid at a criminal ownership percentage, this would be the week.
Tight Ends (Week 9)
Name | Week 9 Projected Targets | Week 9 Projected Ownership % | Week 9 Projected Fantasy Points |
Greg Olsen (E, S) | 11 | 15-20% | 18 |
Kyle Rudolph | 9 | 30-35% | 22 |
Jack Doyle (S, V) | 10 | 5-10% | 17 |
Coby Fleener (V) | 8 | 10-15% | 16 |
Richard Rodgers (C, V) | 5 | 0-5% | 12 |
Greg Olsen – What really needs to be said about Greg Olsen at this point? Other than Rob Gronkowski, Olsen is the man at the TE position and Gronkowski's team has a bye this week. This week, the Panthers will head to Los Angeles to take on a Rams team that has been pretty tough on opposing TEs but they have allowed three receiving TDs to the position. If examining the schedule, the best TE they have played to this point has been Jimmy Graham and otherwise they have faced mostly mediocre talents at the position…and Olsen is no mediocre talent. Deploy him as you normally would if you are into that sort of thing.
Kyle Rudolph – Short rest is never ideal for a player but six days rest becomes a whole lot easier when squaring off against a cupcake defense. Yes, Kyle Rudolph will draw the dream matchup against the Lions this week who have become the Coors Field of TEs. Literally every single week a TE gets it done against them and they have now allowed 20 TDs to the position over their last 24 games including allowing back-to-back TE4 or better performances to Vernon Davis and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Additionally, only Greg Olsen and Jason Witten have been targeted on a higher percent of their respective teams' red zone targets than Rudolph and only Martellus Bennett and Jack Doyle (four) have scored more TDs than this three. Essentially, he has emerged as a true TE1 in this offense and the defense will have no answer for him. Fading him in cash games is probably a grave mistake this week.
Jack Doyle – As per usual, Jack Doyle's viability hinges on the status of Dwayne Allen but it does not appear he is anywhere close to returning. Therefore, Doyle will draw the start against a Packers team that has allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs and Doyle is still cheap. With the Colts listed as 7.5 point favorites, Vegas projects they should be playing from behind against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. There is a ton of value in this game and especially in Indianapolis' passing game specifically.
Coby Fleener – At just $3,400 on DraftKings (DK), Coby Fleener once again draws an enticing matchup but the question is whether or not he can hang onto the ball when thrown to. Although the 49ers rank ninth in DVOA against opposing TEs, Fleener is versatile (as evident by his rushing TD earlier this season) and he is going to get completely overlooked because the public always plays Drew Brees' home/away splits like they were written in stone. A few weeks ago, Brees proved in Kansas City they were nothing more than noise and he should once again on Sunday. Again, the largest obstacle for Fleener is his 64-percent catch rate which ranks 39th amongst all TEs who have played at least 25-percent of their respective team's snaps.
Richard Rodgers – One guy who rates even worse in catch rate than Fleener is Richard Rodgers (61-percent) but the matchup jumps off the page. No team is implied to score more points than the Packers this weekend (30.8) and the Colts have allowed the second most yards receiving (and four TDs) to the TE position. Aaron Rodgers targets the TE Rodgers every so often in the red zone and Jared Cook is still out so Rodgers is dominating the snaps. This is basically a Hail Mary play and one totally reliant on a TD but there is a solid chance he gets one in a high-scoring game this weekend.
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