NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 10

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

DeAngelo Williams - If there was any doubt whether the Steelers had confidence leaning on DeAngelo Williams, then that doubt has been slashed. Williams erupted for 170 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries, he also added two receptions for 55 yards. Williams posted large workloads in weeks one and two while Le'Veon Bell served his suspension, but some people may of wanted to take a wait-and-see approach with Williams since the Steelers could of leaned heavier on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger. However, that won't be an option this week as Roethlisberger is going to miss one or two weeks with a foot injury. With Landry Jones projected to start this week Williams should be leaned on as heavy as last week. He also gets the luxury of facing the league's worst rushing defense in Cleveland so we don't have to worry about the Steelers getting blown out and abandoning the run game. At $6,500 Williams is an absolute steal.

DeMarco Murray - Over the past four weeks Murray is quietly putting up high side RB1 numbers. Over those games Murray is averaging 19 carries and 90 yards and has found the end zone three of four weeks. Murray is coming off of a 161 all-purpose yard performance against the Cowboys and in return sees his price drop by $200 on DraftKings. Next up for Murray and the Eagles is a Dolphins rush defense giving up 142 yards per game. Murray's ownership has been surprisingly low over the past few weeks and if that trend continues he is a great tournament play.

Lamar Miller - I am not sure what exactly Lamar Miller needs to do to get a serious price hike, but the team over at DraftKings doesn't seem to want to do it. Now, Miller has seen his price climb from $4,600 to $5,400 over the past four weeks, but he has also posted fantasy performances of 22.8, 41.6, and 33.1 over that span. Miller's rushing numbers remain modest only averaging about 14 carries per game, but he is seeing all goal line work, something he never did under Joe Philbin. Miller racked up seven receptions and 97 yards in the passing game this week, now bringing his last three week all-purpose yard total to 411. At the price point of $5,400 Miller is about the safest cash game option you can find as he can produce in the rushing and passing game.

Darren McFadden - The analysis on Darren McFadden is actually pretty simple: Volume, volume, volume. McFadden ran the ball 27 times last Sunday night for 117 yards and he now has 76 carries over the past three games. There doesn't seem to be any competition in Dallas either as back-up Christine Michael didn't see the field at all in week nine. Expect the Matt Cassel led Cowboys to continue to lean on McFadden this week against the Bucaneers. Tampa Bay does feature a top ten rush defense in the league, but McFadden's volume and sub $5,000 price should outweigh the matchup.

LeGarrette Blount - Blount saw a season high 29 carries in week nine against Washington and with Dion Lewis now out for the year he is now locked in as the Patriots led running back. It's always a bit hard to trust a running back in a Bill Belichick system, but Blount is the most talented running back on the roster and is already seeing goal line work. Don't be surprised to see James White or Brandon Bolden to get some surprise carries, but Blount will lead the charge. The Patriots offense is one of the most deadly in the NFL, averaging 34 points per game, so expect Blount to have multiple score upside every week. We recommend getting Blount at a discount now before his price hike.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Odell Beckham Jr. - Over the past two weeks Odell Beckham Jr. has seen 26 total targets, 17 receptions, and 235 yards. Of those 26 targets, 17 of them came in the Giants week nine victory over the Buccaneers, marking the second most targets Beckham has seen in his career. In week ten the Giants will host the Patriots and if you believe in game theory then OBJ is going to have several opportunities against a top Patriots team this week. If the Patriots get up early on the Giants and force them to throw early and often, expect OBJ to see high-end double digit targets.

Randall Cobb - The Packers are a team in a bit of disarray right now. They are still a top force in the NFC, but back to back losses against other elite talent has put them in a bit of an emotional corner. The Packers offense has been reeling a bit the past few weeks, with a lack of playmakers stepping up to the plate. The Packers were hampered before the season even started losing Jordy Nelson to an ACL injury and have dealt with an injured Eddie Lacy for most of the season. However Randall Cobb remains the top option in the passing game and saw 12 targets last week against the Panthers. The return of Devante Adams to full health will help Cobb in the long run as it will prevent defenses from primarily keying in on Cobb. Cobb is an elite talent, with an elite quarterback, with a lowball price of $6,700. The Packers need to get back on the winning track this week and what better than a home matchup against the Detroit Lions to get them there. Cobb is one of my favorite plays this week and with his recent down play should remain relatively low owned.

Allen Robinson - In the Jaguars last four games Allen Robinson has caught six passes each game, averaging 85 yards per game, and has four touchdowns. Last week against Darrelle Revis Robinson managed six catches for 121 yards. It's not as much of a stretch as you would think to call Robinson matchup proof at this point as he is consistently putting up 20 plus fantasy point performances. Since week two of the season Robinson has seen targets of 12, 9, 12, 9, 12, 9, and 11. There isn't much more you can ask for from the second year pro. With the volume, talent and increasingly better play from Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson is a safe cash game play this week against a reeling Baltimore secondary.

Stefon Diggs - Since his emergence in week six, Stefon Diggs has been a highly owned commodity in DFS. Maybe I am not as risky as you, or maybe I was just playing it safe, but I have kept a far distance from Diggs since his price was raised after reaping the minimum priced rewards back in week six. Well, Diggs followed up his big debut with two more weeks of strong performance before falling back to earth this past week with a down game against St. Louis. Diggs ownership percentage was a bit more realistic this week at 14.6%, but still seemed a bit high against a tough defense. This week the Vikings face the Raiders and Diggs is coming at a $200 discount from last week. The Raiders passing defense ranks dead last in the NFL and just got torched by the Steelers. Difference between the Vikings and Steelers is that the Vikings don't have as much talented depth in the receiving core. Look for Diggs to have a big bounce back performance this week.

Golden Tate - This is a contrarian pick this week based off of matchup and depressed price. Golden Tate is not having the season he, nor many expected after he posted 1,331 yards last year, he is on pace for roughly 700 yards this season. Tate only has one touchdown on the year and has only managed 80 yards once this year. Despite all the negatives Tate still projects out pretty strongly this week dependant on Calvin Johnson's status. The chances of Johnson missing this week with his ankle injury are small with the Lions coming off of a bye, but he hasn't practiced now in over eight days. The Lions this week face a Packers team that is missing top cornerback Sam Shields and rookie Quinten Rollins. Cornerback Casey Hayward is also going through concussion protocol so his status remains questionable. Even if Megatron suits up, Tate should provide a strong number two option against a young and injured Packers secondary. Following game theory, the Lions should be playing from behind, making the Lions receivers slightly more attractive options.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Tyler Eifert - With a reeling rushing game in Cincinnati, the Bengals have turned to Tyler Eifert a bit heavier in the red zone these past few weeks. Over the past four games for the Bengals Eifert has a total of six touchdowns and now has nine on the season. Eifert won't necessarily see the volume in targets that a Greg Olsen or Rob Gronkowski will, but with his price being drastically lower than the previous mentioned he is an elite option with multiple touchdown upside.

Delanie Walker -Besides only having one touchdown on the season prior to week nine, Delanie Walker had been the top targeted option in the Tennessee offense. Even prior to Mariota's return, Walker was still averaging seven receptions a game and has only fallen below 50 yards receiving once. With Mariota returning last Sunday Walker reeled in seven passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Walker has fallen below double digit fantasy points once this season and that was back in week five against Buffalo. He remains the safest play in the Titans offense and has a strong chemistry with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota. Walker is a safe mid-priced play this week against a mid ranked defense.

Jordan Reed - Reed has missed two weeks this season but still ranks in the top ten amongst tight ends in total targets on the season. Upon returning from injury in week seven against Tampa Bay, Reed caught 11 passes for 72 yards and two scores. Following the bye however this past week the Washington offense was shutdown against New England, allowing Reed only three catches for 18 yards. Reed is second on the team in targets, only nine behind leader Pierre Garcon. This week the Redskins will face a Saints team that has allowed the most receiving touchdowns in the league so far this season. Much like Delaine Walker, this tight end has a good chemistry with their starting quarterback and is a very safe option with a high ceiling.

Richard Rodgers - Rodgers is never going to be a play that accumulates a lot of yardage, but he does have touchdown upside as he usually gets a look in the red zone. The Packers may be without running back Eddie Lacy, who though has had an uninspiring season, still was receiving carries in the red zone. If the full load of red zone work shifts to Aaron Rodgers any receiving option gets a slight bump in the Packers offense. Rodgers has consistently seen four or more targets a game and his nine targets last week was a season high. This week's opponent Detroit has given up six total touchdowns to tight ends this season which is the second most in the league.

Crockett Gillmore - With the Ravens losing veteran Steve Smith for the rest of the season, the Baltimore receiving core now has roughly ten plus targets a game to absolve. Joe Flacco in his past three games has thrown the ball an average of 43 times. We can assume that ten of those will go to Kamar Aiken, ten will be split between Marlon Brown and Chris Givens, and ten or so will be worked through the running backs. If Flacco keeps the ball in the air then that still leaves an unaccounted 10-12 targets per game in the Baltimore offense. Gillmore has never seen more than seven targets a game and has yet to catch over five passes, but he does have three touchdowns on the season. Gillmore should see some red zone work and could be worked into the offense a bit more as the Ravens depth is lacking.