Running Backs

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 10 Targets / Touches

Week 10 Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Targets / Touches

Week 11 Projected Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Fantasy Points

Adrian Peterson (E, S)

$6,800

2, 26

12.9%

3, 24

15-20%

26

Marshawn Lynch (C)

$6,700

2, 8

2%

2, 22

5-15%

20

Lamar Miller (S)

$6,200

8, 16

11.4%

7, 15

10-15%

19

Charcandrick West (E, S, V)

$4,500

5, 24

2.1%

4, 18

20-25%

25

Jonathan Stewart (C, V)

$4,400

0, 22

5%

1, 20

10-15%

14

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Adrian Peterson - One of my favorite trends to follow in daily fantasy is unexplained price drops. Adrian Peterson came in priced at $7,100 last week against Oakland and carried the ball 26 times for 203 yards and a touchdown. As a reward for his strong effort he received a $300 price drop for this week and the buyers rejoice! Peterson now has three straight games of over 100 yards and is averaging 25 carries per contest over that time. Next up for the Vikings is a critical home matchup against Green Bay in which Peterson will be leaned on heavily.

Marshawn Lynch - The medical status of Lynch this week kept his percentage super low, so don't think twice about his start percentage or workload. The Seahawks took a loss to the Cardinals last Sunday night and were dominated in time of possession the entire game. With a questionable label heading into the matchup, Lynch played through his abdominal injury and played nearly all of the team's offensive snaps. I am hoping the low workload numbers keeps his percentage owned this week as he takes on a Niners defense ranked near the bottom in all defensive stats. If game theory holds, Lynch should see plenty of ground work early and late.

Lamar Miller - I've said the past two weeks that Lamar Miller is vastly underpriced and this week DraftKings finally pushed his price up to a level it should be. The $800 price hike from $5,400 to $6,200 is one of the largest on DraftKings this week, but still won't deter me from rostering him. Against Philadelphia in week ten Miller carried the ball 16 times and caught six passes out of the backfield. Most of Miller's production is coming through the passing game, but that's okay since the volume is there. Over the past three games Miller is averaging seven targets per game and is still receiving goal line work. This week the Dolphins take on a middling Dallas defense.

Charcandrick West - Coming into week ten Charcandrick West certainly couldn't produce against an elite Denver defense, could he? He could. West didn't post gaudy numbers, but the Chiefs put their faith in the young back and gave him the volume to succeed. West only averaged 2.9 yards per carry, but found the end zone in both the passing and rushing game. It's an encouraging sign to see Kansas City not going with an running back by committee approach, letting West run through his struggles. Over the past three games West has averaged 22 carries a game and around 85 yards, he has also scored in three straight games. Look for that trend to continue this week as the Chiefs take on a Chargers team ranked 26th in the NFL against the rush. Oh and by the way, West got a $300 price drop this week. That's a running back averaging 27 fantasy points over this last three contests for $4,500. West gets an elite tag this week for price and volume.

Jonathan Stewart - There is nothing flashy about this play week to week, but that's okay. Jonathan Stewart has virtually kept the same price tag all season, settling into the mid $4,000 range since week three. Since week six Stewart has yet to fall below the 20 attempts threshold and over that time is averaging about 85 yards per game. Stewart falls off a bit around the goal line, since Cam Newton is typically the man with the ball in his hands, but week-to-week Stewart sees the volume to fill out your roster if you are targeting some other high priced options. With no glaring value play this week outside of West and a lot of tough matchups, the consistency of Stewart may be what you need.

Wide Receivers

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 10 Targets

Week 10 Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Targets

Week 11 Projected Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Fantasy Points

Julio Jones (E, S)

$9,300

N/A

N/A

14

10-15%

26

Mike Evans (C)

$7,300

13

8%

14

10-15%

21

Sammy Watkins (C)

$4,800

7

6%

13

5-10%

18

Davante Adams (V)

$4,600

21

11.8%

11

10-15%

17

Danny Amendola (S,V)

$4,000

11

3.8%

14

20-30%

22

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Julio Jones - Coming fresh off a bye, Julio Jones tops our best plays this week. The NFL leader in receptions last played in week nine where he caught 10-of-17 targets for 137 yards against the Niners. Jones is currently second in the NFL in targets, only four behind leader DeAndre Hopkins and averaging 13 targets a game throughout this season. Jones will have a tough matchup against Colts corner Vontae Davis, but there isn't a cornerback in the game that makes me think twice about Jones. Overall, the Colts passing defense is ranked 28th in the NFL.

Mike Evans - Because of a $500 price jump, Mike Evans moves more into contrarian territory this week. In three of Evans last four weeks he has posted games of eight receptions and over 125 yards, including games of 150 and 164 receiving. Over the past two weeks Evans has a total of 32 targets and is seeing a massive volume with fellow receiver Vincent Jackson out with an injury. The only thing separating Evans from being higher priced and thought of as an elite option is his extreme lack of touchdowns. The second year receiver only has one on the season. That's something to put into great perspective as Evans is still averaging near 16 fantasy points per game.

Sammy Watkins - Suggesting someone to play Sammy Watkins is like telling them to close their eyes, jump off of a bridge, and just trust you that they will land safely. But this week if you trust me, we can jump off the bridge together. Watkins, now finally healthy, posted a monster eight reception, 168 yard performance back in week nine. He followed that up with an uninspiring three reception performance this past week against the Jets, but a matchup against Darrelle Revis is never an easy one. If anything, his down week against the Jets helped drop his price $200. With Watkins being healthy now, he shouldn't have issue seeing large amounts of targets on a weekly basis. This week the Bills face the Patriots in Foxboro. Following the game theory on this one, the Bills should be playing from behind, keeping Watkins involved throughout the game.

Davante Adams - I am doing my best to not chase a big number here, but there is something stark about seeing a receiver get 21 targets. Adams has battled injuries through the season, but has returned healthy for the Packers last two contests. Over those two games Adams has seen 32 total targets and is averaging about 85 yards per contest. Adams is still shutout of the end zone on the season, but you would have to think that trend ends sooner than later with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The Packers need a win in a bad way this week against the Vikings and Adams should continue to see double digit targets, albeit nothing as high as 21.

Danny Amendola - With Julian Edelman out for the foreseeable future, Danny Amendola becomes one of the premier options in the Patriots passing attack. Last week against the Giants Amendola wasted no time producing, catching 10 passes on 11 targets for 79 yards. With Edelman and Dion Lewis lost now, look for Amendola to see a ton of short yardage targets. There is almost no situation that I can see where Amendola doesn't pay off his low salary. This is going to be a popular play this week.

Tight End

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 10 Targets

Week 10 Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Targets

Week 11 Projected Ownership %

Week 11 Projected Fantasy Points

Rob Gronkowski (E, S)

$7,700

7

19.6%

12

25-30%

27

Greg Olsen (E, S)

$6,200

8

11.3%

9

10-15%

21

Antonio Gates (C)

$4,800

N/A

N/A

13

10-15%

17

Jacob Tamme (C, V)

$3,600

N/A

N/A

8

5-10%

14

Eric Ebron (V)

$3,500

8

4%

7

5-10%

12

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Rob Gronkowski - With Julian Edelman gone for the foreseeable future due to injury, the Patriots offense now has roughly 10 targets per game to absolve amongst the current receiving core. Danny Amendola stands to gain the most in short yardage out routes, almost directly filling the hole Edelman has left. However guys like Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell should see some extra work as well. Like you guys needed another reason to play Gronkowski anyway. Gronk is the safest option in a week with some tough matchups for tight ends.

Greg Olsen - If you are searching for consistency, then Greg Olsen's last three game sample size is exactly what you are looking for. Olsen is averaging six receptions a game, adding around 75 yards a contest to go along with it. In his last three weeks he has put up fantasy performances of 19.9, 16.6, and 16. Olsen is even $100 cheaper than his previous two weeks. There isn't anything too scary about his next matchup with the Redskins defense, though they have been a bit stingy against tight ends this year. However with Olsen leading the Panthers in targets, receptions, and yards he shouldn't find too much difficulty producing.

Antonio Gates - This pick has it's pros and cons, so it is safe to call Antonio Gates a high upside contrarian pick this week. The Chargers are coming off of a bye week, meaning Gates is likely to enter this game at 100% health. With the loss of Keenan Allen in week eight and Malcom Floyd in week nine the Chargers are going to need to work Gates into the passing game even more heavily than he already is. In three of the four games Gates has played this season he has seen targets of 11 or more, including 16 back in week five. The downside to this pick is the Chargers opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, have given up the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the season. I still think the repertoire of Rivers to Gates wins out, but his maximum ceiling might be a bit limited.

Jacob Tamme - This pick is made on a very small sample size, but for the price it's hard to ignore. Tamme has been targeted 22 times over the Falcons last two games and has a total of 16 receptions. Tamme's ceiling is capped a bit by his lack of touchdowns, but with Leonard Hankerson being out and Roddy White no longer producing in the offense, Tamme has become a second or third look option for quarterback Matt Ryan. This week the Falcons face the Colts, who is a team that has allowed the second most receptions to tight ends in the league.

Eric Ebron - This write up wouldn't be complete without picking on the Oakland Raiders defense against tight ends. The Raiders have now given up 10 touchdowns to tight ends on the year, making players against them a constant streaming option. Eric Ebron has seen over five targets in his last three games, including eight last week against Green Bay. Through the seven games he has played this year Ebron is averaging double digit fantasy points. Ebron should be low owned this week with upside to find the end zone.





Comments
zachsgotmoxy
I agree that West and Danny boy are going to be highly owned. West is criminally under priced on both sites.