Running Backs

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 11 Targets / Touches

Week 11 Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Targets / Touches

Week 12 Projected Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Fantasy Points

Todd Gurley (E)

$7,500

0, 25

18.9%

4, 22

15-20%

25

Mark Ingram (C)

$6,400

N/A

N/A

6, 20

5-15%

23

Javorius Allen (V)

$4,600

6, 22

0%

6, 20

25-35%

16

Thomas Rawls (E, S, V)

$4,500

3, 30

1.6%

2, 24

30-40%

23

Ronnie Hillman (C, V)

$4,000

1, 21

1.6%

1, 18

5-10%

16

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Todd Gurley - Though Gurley's overall rushing numbers are down over the past few weeks he has now scored in five straight games and is still receiving the volume you look for out of a top priced option. Gurley rushed 25 times for 66 yards last week against Baltimore but also lost a fumble. A stark difference between last week and the four before is that he wasn't targeted in the passing game at all, but we can likely chalk that up to the Rams starting Case Keenum over Nick Foles. The Rams need Gurley if they want to win and Jeff Fischer knows that. If Case Keenum is to start against I expect a strong emphasis on getting Gurley the ball this week in practice. The Rams travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals this week, who rank near the middle in all defensive categories.

Mark Ingram - Back in week 10 against the Redskins Ingram carried the ball five times for 77 yards. Ingram was temporarily knocked out of the game in the first half and only received two carries in the second half. With no Khiry Robinson and an ineffective C.J. Spiller, Ingram is still the lead and almost only back in the New Orleans offense. Feel free to look past his week ten performance and have confidence in starting him this week against the 20th ranked rushing defense of Houston.

Javorius Allen - With the news that Justin Forsett will miss the rest of the 2015 season with a broken arm the lead job is now turned over to rookie Javorius "Buck" Allen. In limited action this year Allen has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and has caught 13-of-19 targets. In addition to losing Forsett, the Ravens also lost quarterback Joe Flacco meaning Matt Schaub is also slated to start for the Ravens on Monday night. This offense might not be the safest to target in its current form, but you are spared a bit by them facing the Browns this week. Cleveland will come into the matchup ranked 26th in pass defense and dead last in rushing defense. The volume should be there for Allen as he is now arguably the most talented player in the Ravens offense.

Thomas Rawls - In an emergency start for Marshawn Lynch undrafted free agent Thomas Rawls opened eyes with a dominant performance over San Francisco. On 30 carries Rawls rushed for 209 yards, including 46 yards receiving and two touchdowns. In four games this season that Rawls has started for Lynch he is averaging 21 carries for 132 yards. For me the most eye opening stat is that Pete Carrol was comfortable giving Rawls a total of 30 carries. That is the exact kind of volume we look for in a fantasy running back and though it is unlikely to see that every week, we should see over 20. It's unknown when Lynch will return this year, but it won't be Sunday against Pittsburgh. The Steelers feature a tough rush defense, but the price and projected volume make Rawls an elite play this week.

Ronnie Hillman - There was no real fair way to think that both Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson were actually bad running backs. It also felt a bit unfair to chalk up the Denver running problems directly to Peyton Manning. But after Hillman got a healthy 21 rush workload and broke 100 yards it looks like the running game at least moves a bit better in a Brock Osweiler system. In addition to Hillman, C.J. Anderson also rushed for 59 yards on 12 carries. A big difference between Manning and Osweiler is that Osweiler doesn't run the entire offense out of the shotgun formation. Denver doesn't have a favorable matchup against the Patriots this week, but Hillman is the cheapest running back I am comfortable with starting in a tournament this week. With Allen and Rawls projected to be highly started Hillman is good contrarian value.

Wide Receivers

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 11 Targets

Week 11 Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Targets

Week 12 Projected Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Fantasy Points

DeAndre Hopkins (E,C)

$9,100

12

2.7%

15

10-15%

32

Odell Beckham Jr. (E, S)

$8,700

N/A

N/A

13

10-15%

29

Brandin Cooks (C)

$6,400

N/A

N/A

9

10-15%

23

Travis Benjamin (C)

$5,300

N/A

N/A

11

5-10%

20

Brandon LaFell (V)

$4,300

8

12.9%

10

10-15%

17

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

DeAndre Hopkins - The 2.7% start percentage last week can be justified, but it's going down as an example of why DeAndre Hopkins is matchup proof. Lining up against Darrelle Revis for most of Sunday's contest Hopkins was able to corral 5-of-12 targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns. The Texans also started T.J. Yates this week, another possible deterrent to Hopkins start percentage. Brian Hoyer should return this week and the Texans do get a dream matchup against a New Orleans defense that can't stop anyone in the passing game. Hopkins is an elite option, who may carry a slightly low ownership tag this week.

Odell Beckham Jr. - Over Beckham's last three games he has averaged 115 yards and over a touchdown per. Through that stretch he has also averaged 13 targets and near 30 fantasy points. I am keeping the sample size small on Beckham, but I could easily go back and highlight what has been a fantastic season for the second year pro. As you see in the chart above, a lot of my favorite plays this week are ones who are coming off of a bye last week. Beckham's fresh legs and the Giants take on the Redskins this week, a team who has given up an average of 25 points per week.

Brandin Cooks - I am not sure how contrarian playing Brandin Cooks is this week, but I don't feel comfortable labeling him safe, though his recent play suggests otherwise. After only finding the end zone once through the first seven weeks of the season Cooks has caught fire hauling in five touchdowns over his past three games. Over that three game span Cooks is averaging five receptions for around 85 yards and remains the most targeted receiver for the Saints. One of the contributing factors to Cooks recent success is the fact that the Saints have played virtually no defense in their past three games, giving up an average of 44 points over that span. With so many points given up, the offense has been playing catch-up more than earlier in the year. Next up is a matchup with the Texans that has the current highest Vegas total at 48.

Travis Benjamin - With the Browns announcing Johnny Manziel will start the rest of the season, his favorite target in the passing game gets a large bump. In the three games that Manziel has started this year Travis Benjamin has seen double digit targets in all of them and has two touchdowns. In their last game the pair hooked up seven times for 113 yards on 11 targets. With the assumption that Manziel is fighting for his future in Cleveland, you can expect him to look to his safety blanket often this week. The Browns face the Ravens on Monday. Of course there is a lot of risk in this pick as the Browns can always be a bust in terms of fantasy (and well, non fantasy) but Benjamin makes a great tournament play this week.

Brandon LaFell - When you have one of the best quarterbacks in football, there needs to be someone for him to throw it too. The Patriots lost Julian Edelman back in week 10 and may have lost Danny Amendola in week 11. So once again, ten or so targets must be redistributed amongst the offense. At this point the most notable names in the New England offense are Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell. LaFell caught 4-of-8 targets for 66 yards on Monday night against the Bills, numbers that aren't overly glaring, but should increase going forward. At a $4,300 price tag you are getting great value out of a relatively high ceiling player.

Tight End

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 11 Targets

Week 11 Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Targets

Week 12 Projected Ownership %

Week 12 Projected Fantasy Points

Rob Gronkowski (E)

$7,900

7

22.2%

10

20-25%

24

Tyler Eifert (C)

$5,800

3

8%

5

5-10%

16

Delanie Walker (E, S)

$5,400

10

14%

12

30-35%

24

Heath Miller (C, V)

$3,100

N/A

N/A

7

5-10%

13

Derek Carrier (V)

$2,500

3

0%

5

0-5%

8

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Rob Gronkowski - Gronk didn't have a stellar performance in week 11 against the Bills catching only 2-of-7 targets for 37 yards. However as we know we need to look at the big picture and not just the last game. Gronkowski is a bit overpriced, so I could justify fading him this week against a tough Denver defense, however there isn't a tight end on this slate (except one) who has a higher ceiling week to week. Like any player you run the risk of the sub 10 fantasy point performance, but not as many can offer you the upside of an over 30 performance and that is what you are paying up for with Gronkowski. Like previously stated with Brandon LaFell, the Patriots may have to redistribute the targets if Danny Amendola is to miss any time and with a tough matchup up next, the Patriots may need to feed their best receiver. The Broncos could very well key in on Gronk like the Bills did this week, but he remains an elite, albeit riskier play this week.

Tyler Eifert - Gone are the days when Eifert would seen 8-10 targets a game and in return we get a guy who is now the Bengals main red zone threat. Maybe not the most ideal trade off, but we will take it. Eifert in back to back weeks has posted games of three receptions and under 30 yards. However he does have five touchdowns over his last three games and 11 touchdowns overall on the season. Eifert is not one of my favorite plays this week, but he does face a Rams team this week that just gave up over 100 yards to Crockett Gilmore. With a lot of attention on Delanie Walker this week (see below) and probably an over-owned Rob Gronkowski (see above), Eifert remains a (current) touchdown dependant tournament play. However we have seen Eifert be targeted over eight times at least three times this year, so the upside is always there.

Delanie Walker - There has been a constant theme in fantasy football this year and that has been to pick on the Raiders when it comes to tight ends. The Raiders have given up ten touchdowns on the season to tight ends and the third most total fantasy points to the position in the league. However in the past four weeks we haven't gotten to quite exploit a top option against them, but that changes this week. Delanie Walker has emerged as Marcus Mariota's favorite targets and has seen eight or more targets in four of the last six games. In the last six games Walker is averaging six receptions a game and over 65 yards. Walker's lack of touchdown's are helping keep his price low, as he has eclipsed 21 fantasy points twice in the past three weeks, including a 30 fantasy point outburst back in week nine. Walker has as high of a ceiling as Gronkowski this week and comes $2,500 cheaper. I expect his ownership to be very high this week and the most popular play.

Heath Miller - A stat that may be a bit surprising is that the Seahawks have given up the 4th most fantasy points to tight ends in the NFL. The average of 10.9 isn't overly staggering, but it still shows they are vulnerable in that area. As we know from past samples, Heath Miller plays dramatically better when Ben Roethlisberger is at the helm and Big Ben will indeed be leading the Steelers this week against Seattle. When Roethlisberger wasn't leading the Steelers Miller saw weeks with targets of 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, and 2. With Roethlisberger he has seen games of 13, 6, and 7, so you can see the large gap in targets. Miller isn't going to do anything special and his ceiling isn't very high right now with so many other weapons, but for $3,100 he remains a very serviceable tight end for the price who is definitely still priced down due to weeks of Mike Vick and Landry Jones.

Derek Carrier - A difficult thing about writing a Tuesday morning article is judging the severity of injuries. Jordan Reed sprained his MCL during last Sunday's game but did return to the field before being ruled out for the game a short time later. It is unlikely Reed practices much this week and should he miss Derek Carrier would likely get the start. In Carrier's other start this year he corralled two passes for 26 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins face the Giants this week whom have given up the second most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. There isn't anything flashy with this play, but it is a minimum price starter and it's hard to complain about that.





Comments
zachsgotmoxy
Love the Carrier call if Reed sits.