NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 17

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Adrian Peterson - The Vikings will travel to Green Bay to face the Packers for the NFC North division title Sunday Night. Last Sunday night the Vikings defeated the Giants in a game that saw Adrian Peterson run the rock 22 times for 104 yards and touchdown. There has been some inconsistency with Peterson's game over his last five contests and the Packers did shut him down back in week 11, but with the division on the line expect Peterson to see an elite type workload. There is nothing scary about the Packers run defense and the weather may force both sides to run the ball a bit more than usual. There are other options at a higher price point than Peterson in Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman, but their workloads are unknown in meaningless matchups.

DeAngelo Williams - You will see a common theme in today's article and that is I am highlighting players playing for a playoff spot more than teams with nothing to play with. It is always hard to predict workloads of players out of a playoff hunt as you typically already know what you have with a certain player heading into next season. The Steelers to make the playoffs will need a victory over the Browns and a Jets loss to the Bills. The Browns come into the matchup rocking the leagues 32nd ranked rushing defense and DeAngelo Williams has been a consistent threat in the running and passing game. Last week against Baltimore Williams rushed 17 times for 100 yards and two touchdowns, he also added six receptions for 53 yards. Over his last five contests Williams is averaging over 24 fantasy points a game and expect that trend to continue this week. Williams is the safest play on the board this week with a very high ceiling.

Tim Hightower - With a banged up offense the Saints leaned a bit harder on Hightower this week than last. In two of his last three games Hightower has ran the ball over 26 times and has averaged over four yards a carry. Hightower also has 75 total touches over the last three weeks, adding three touchdowns. Hightower sees one of the steepest price hikes this week at $1,000 but is virtually the only back in the Saints backfield for the rest of this year. This week the Saints travel to Atlanta to play a Falcons team who was just eliminated from playoff contention and is allowing over 107 yards rushing a game.

Bilal Powell - Over Powell's last four contests he has averaged seven receptions a game for around 56 yards, he has also carried the ball around six times a game. The numbers aren't too eye popping but the Jets are really working Powell into the offense in correlation with Chris Ivory over the past few weeks. Chris Ivory himself has struggled as of late and this is the first week this season where Powell is actually priced above Ivory. Powell was 7.5% owned last week and I expect his ownership to be somewhere in the same area with the Jets playing for a playoff spot.

Eddie Lacy - Though Lacy has been very hit or miss this season his price is too hard to ignore this week. On a week where DraftKings priced up nearly every running back, Lacy has seen a $400 price drop. Looking at Lacy's game logs sees him bouncing between good and bad with no real rhyme or reason as Packers coach Mike McCarthy has been playing a hot hand in the running game. Lacy still saw 12 carries for 60 yards last week against the Cardinals and would of seen a heavier workload if the Packers didn't go down by 30. Fellow running back James Starks also lost another fumble, which could see Lacy a few more carries in a game for the division title. Lacy is a high risk, high reward value play this week.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Julio Jones - On a week where a lot of players are seeing huge price bumps, Julio Jones price is mostly left alone climbing only $200 to $8,500. The league's leading receiver in Jones has caught at least seven passes in eight of his last nine games and has posted back to back weeks of nine reception contests. Back in week 15 against Jacksonville Jones posted nine catches for 118 yards and a touchdown and this past week against Carolina he topped it catching nine passes for 178 yards and a touchdown. On the year Jones now has 127 receptions for 1,722 yards, averaging 25.1 fantasy points per game. It seems only fair that the NFL's leading receiver gets to finish out his season against the league's worst pass defense in the Saints.

Brandon Marshall - In a key divisional game against the Patriots, Brandon Marshall stepped up big posting eight catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns. This now marks 115 yards receiving in four of Marshalls last five games and has six touchdowns over that span. The Jets will need to win in Buffalo this weekend to ensure a playoff spot and look for Marshall to continue his recent trend.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin has developed into a safe cash game option over these past five weeks and that trend looks to continue in a game that could net the Chiefs the AFC West title. After only having two touchdowns in the first 11 weeks of the season, Maclin now sits at seven, averaging 16.9 fantasy points per game. Over his past five games Maclin is averaging just a shade under nine targets a game. The Chiefs face the Raiders in Kansas City this week, a team much stronger against the rush than the pass. Look for Maclin and Travis Kelce to have big days in a big game.

Martavis Bryant - One of the biggest disappointments from last week was Steelers wide out Martavis Bryant. Bryant posted a career low one reception for six yards on only three targets. In Bryant's previous five games he was averaging 19.8 fantasy points and saw his price sit in the mid $5,000 area the whole time. This week the Steelers face the Browns and back in week 10 Bryant posted a gigantic six reception, 178 yard and a touchdown performance. We like seeing the bright side of things here at the Cafe and if anything Bryant's down performance at least dropped his price by $200. Expect him to be lower owned from his dud, but still carry his immense ceiling. You know what you are getting.

Jordan Matthews - Is that an elite tag next to Jordan Matthews name there? Why yes it is. I am going to play a bit of short-clip risk here by telling you at his price point Matthews is near a must play this weekend. Over his past two weeks Matthews has 14 receptions for 263 yards and two touchdowns. He has also seen 19 targets. Matthews hasn't seen a strong price increase after back to back 25 point plus fantasy performances. At $4,700 Matthews is a hot hand to ride against a bottom feeding Giants pass defense.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Rob Gronkowski - With the Patriots still fighting to lock up home field advantage look for their stars to be fully active come Sunday. Also, the words 'stars' with the Patriots is really dwindling with meaning when it comes to the offense as injuries have done a number to them. However Brady and Gronk still exist, meaning weekly there is a chance for a 30 plus point fantasy performance. Gronkowski's numbers have been down as of late, but they are still consistent as he is averaging about 16.5 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. This week the Patriots face Miami, a team Gronk put 113 yards and a touchdown on back in week eight.

Delanie Walker - Though Walker only finished with nine catches for 59 yards, he was targeted an amazing 15 times in the passing game. On top of that the veteran receiver is just six yards shy of a 1,000 yard season which would be the first ever in Titans history for a tight end. Walker has been one of the most consistent options all year and his price has stayed around the $5,600 range for the last five weeks. In seeing 15 targets it is made clear Walker is Mettenberger's most comfortable option, so look for the trend to continue against the Colts this week.

Travis Kelce - After a string of poor performances, Kelce has turned it back on again posting back to back performances with six receptions. It may not seem like a lot, but the fact that Kelce is being featured again in the offense is a productive sign after he saw games of only three and five targets in weeks 13 and 14. This past week Kelce saw eight targets and hauled in his first touchdown since week 12. The Chiefs still have a shot at a division title this week and will face a Raiders team that has allowed 12 touchdowns to tight ends on the year and the third most fantasy points.

Owen Daniels - If you are looking to play it cheap at the tight end position then Owen Daniels may be a good fit for your roster. Daniels led the Broncos in receiving Monday night, catching five passes for 70 yards. Demaryius Thomas was the only Broncos receiver to be targeted more and Brock Osweiler seemed comfortable with Daniels in the passing game. It's unclear if the trend will continue as our sample size is small, but at $2,500 he is certainly worth a dart throw.