I am typically a writer who likes to dive right in and get to the meat of an article, but first I would like to take a second to step up on my soap box and introduce myself. This is my first article for Daily Fantasy Cafe and I am thrilled to join a great group of guys who produce fantastic content on a weekly basis. Thank you for letting me be a part of this family. Below you will find a chart that displays the players DraftKings salary this week, along with his target and ownership numbers from the previous week. I also include my thoughts on the players, along with my personal projections for their upcoming matchup. Each chart includes players that are graded Elite, Safe, Contrarian, or Value.

Running Backs

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 3

Targets / Touches

Week 3 Ownership %

Week 4

Proj. Targets / Touches

Week 4 Projected Ownership %

Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points

Jamaal Charles (E)

$7,600

7, 11

17.3%

8/18

15-20%

28

Latavius Murray (S)

$6,300

1, 26

19.8%

2, 22

15-20%

24.5

Melvin Gordon (C)

$4,900

1, 14

5.2%

1, 17

1-5%

16

Frank Gore (C)

$4,700

2, 14

3.9%

1, 14

5-10%

16

Karlos Williams (V)

$3,400

0, 12

>1%

4, 18

20-30%

18

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Jamaal Charles - After a devastating end to week two against Denver, Charles bounced back against the Packers finding the end zone three times. With the Chiefs down 14 points early, the ground game never got going moving Charles' play making to work in the flats. His week three matchup was a perfect example of how deadly of a weapon Charles is as a fantasy performer as he was mostly shut down on the ground and still found the end zone three times. When it comes to scoring on DraftKings, that offers a full point for receptions, Charles is already basically starting five points ahead of a lot of running backs. Outside of Le'Veon Bell, there is not a starting running back that saw as many targets as Jamaal Charles did in week three. In fact, Charles 20 targets on the season is only three behind Lance Dunbar who leads the league with 23. The Chiefs draw the Bengals in week four, a defense that so far this year has been top ten in rush, pass, and total defense. However, Charles is a guy who carved up the top ranked Broncos for a 6 yard per carry average and his volume in the running and passing game makes his $7,600 salary way too cheap to pass up.

Safe

Latavius Murray - When you think of the word 'safe' the first name that comes to your mind might not be Raiders starter Latavius Murray. That being said, there might not be a running back in a better spot than Murray and his week four matchup against Chicago. The Bears come in ranking 28th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 135 per game on the ground. Week three instilled a lot of faith in the 3rd year back as Oakland ran him heavy in the latter part of the game en route to a total of 26 carries and a 5.3 average per carry. The Raiders opened as three point road favorites in Chicago and the Bears may hold claim to the worst team in football after three weeks. If the Raiders can claim an early lead then Murray is in line for a monster game.

Contrarian

Melvin Gordon - In what appears to be a disappointing start to his NFL career on paper, might not actually be as bad as you think. Through three weeks Gordon has averaged 4.5 yards per carry, but the likes of Danny Woodhead and Brandon Oliver have severely limited his touches. The Chargers get a home matchup in week four against the Cleveland Browns, a team sporting the worst statistical rush defense in the league. Through the first three weeks the Browns have allowed a total of 158.3 yards on the ground. That statistic gets a little worse when you check that their first three opponents were the Jets, Titans, and Raiders. Gordon is in the best situation he has been in all season and is still seeing 14-16 carries per game. After a 5.1 fantasy point performance, fantasy goers may look elsewhere in week four, making Gordon the perfect low percentage owned contrarian play. Look for Gordon to maintain his 14-18 touch average, but I am projecting him as a lock to find the end zone this week.

Frank Gore - The Colts, who haven't had a comfortable rushing attack in two years, seemed to have finally realized that Frank Gore is about as reliable as they come. Gore led the Colts Sunday with 86 yards and two touchdowns in what was a very balanced offensive attack by the Colts. The one drawback to Gore is he is very touchdown dependant and at his age isn't going to cross the 20 carry plateau very often. Taking all that into consideration, there is still value to be had out of Gore. His price is comes in as the 20th most expensive running back at $4,900, leaving a lot of room to diversify your roster elsewhere. The Jaguars come to Lucas Oil Stadium in week four as ten point underdogs. If this game goes by the Vegas script with the Colts projected to score 30 points, Gore will see plenty of work on the ground.

Value

Karlos Williams - With the news coming out yesterday that the Bills plan to rest LeSean McCoy in week four due to injury, rookie running back Karlos Williams is in line to get his first career start. The fifth round pick out of Florida State has already rushed 24 times for 186 yards (which is 7.8 yards per carry) and three touchdowns in 2015. Coming in at a price of $3,400 be prepared for Williams to be very highly owned Sunday in all formats. The only drawback to this play is that he faces the Giants, a team allowing the second fewest rushing yards in the league. Flip-side to that however is the Bills have rushed for the most yards per week, averaging 152 a game on the ground. Expect Williams to have a 'bend, not break' approach Sunday by very easily making his $3,400 worth it.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 3 Targets

Week 3 Ownership %

Week 4 Projected Targets

Week 4 Projected Ownership %

Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points

Julio Jones (E)

$9,300

20

12.7%

17

10-15%

35.5

Randall Cobb (S)

$7,400

12

12.4%

12

15-20%

24

Mike Evans (C)

$6,400

17

1.3%

15

7-12%

25

Amari Cooper (C)

$6,300

11

3.3%

11

5-10%

20

Ted Ginn Jr. (V)

$3,400

6

2.9%

8

1-5%

14

Elite

Julio Jones - Marking the easiest write up of the week, Julio Jones leads the NFL in total targets with 46 now on this young season. With a $9,000 price tag, Jones' ownership remained relatively low in relation to his production in week three. Jones' 46 targets are twice as many as any other Falcon player and teammate Roddy White has yet to see a pass thrown his way since week one. Moving towards week four, the Falcons will face the Texans in Atlanta, a team that muddles in the middle of defensive ranks. It's a bit too early to claim that Jones is entirely 'matchup safe' week-to-week, but he is right on the cusp of it. Being locked in as the number one target in football has Jones leading the week four projections, but I don't see him quite reaching last week's total. His gigantic fantasy game last week will likely drive his start percentage up a bit, but his $9,300 price tag will also scare a lot of players away.

Safe

Randall Cobb - One of the great things (or bad things depending how you look at it) about DraftKings is that the Monday Night game isn't factored into pricing for the next week since the slate is released on Monday. So Randall Cobb's seven reception, 91 yard, three touchdown performance didn't factor into the whopping $100 price increase from week three to week four. The Packers now take a 3-and-0 record to San Francisco, a team that ranks 28th in the NFL in passing yards given up per game, 26th in the NFL in points allowed per game, and 25th in total defense. The biggest concern here is the possibility of a blowout since the Packers have opened as 10 point road favorites. Putting the thought of a blowout aside, Cobb should be in line for his normal workload as the number one receiver to arguably the best quarterback in football. At $7,400 he provides the safest price-point with the highest upside of anyone on the slate.

Contrarian

Mike Evans - A healthy Mike Evans finally took the field this past Sunday and ended the week as the fourth most targeted player in football. Evans led the Buccaneers with 17 targets, hauling in seven of them for 101 yards. The 41% reception rate for Evans is more indicative of Jameis Winston's growing pains, as Evans averaged 14.4 yards-per-catch. The biggest takeaway however is that Evans' price on DraftKings has actually dropped $200 dollars from $6,600 to $6,400. The Bucs welcome the 3-and-0 Panthers to Raymond James Stadium in week four and though the matchup isn't the greatest on paper, Evans' volume speaks for itself, especially if Winston is forced to throw from behind.

Amari Cooper - You always want to take a wait and see approach with rookies since you never know how quick they will adapt to the NFL game. You want to take a longer wait and see approach when that player lands on the Oakland Raiders. However, Cooper has quickly put doubts to rest and has become the most consistent and favorite option for quarterback David Carr in Oakland. Through three weeks Cooper has seen targets of 9, 11, and 11. Through those 31 total targets, Cooper has a reception rate of 61% and has put up 26.9 and 23.4 fantasy points the last two weeks on DraftKings. There is no reason to believe his targets will fluctuate rapidly, but with his price in the same range as Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, and T.Y Hilton his percentage owned should remain low.

Value

Ted Ginn Jr. - Based solely on price, Ted Ginn Jr. is one of the biggest boom or bust value plays there are on DraftKings. It's rare to find a team's number one wide receiver option to be in the $3,400 range and though his numbers are not eye popping, there is a lot to like with Ted Ginn Jr. So far on the season Ginn Jr. has seen 22 targets, which is second the team behind Greg Olsen, but twice as much as anyone behind him. In week three Ginn Jr. hauled in four of his six targets for 91 yards, now giving him 14.1 and 13.3 fantasy points in the last two weeks. The Panthers will face the Buccaneers in week four which may present an issue for their leading receiver in Greg Olsen. Through three weeks the Buccaneers have only given up a total of 84 yards to tight ends and one touchdown.

Tight End

Name

DraftKings Salary

Week 3 Targets

Week 3 Ownership %

Week 4 Projected Targets

Week 4 Projected Ownership %

Week 4 Projected Fantasy Points

Jimmy Graham (E)

$6,000

8

6.3%

10

15-20%

24

Travis Kelce (E)

$5,300

10

7%

9

10-15%

19

Jordan Reed (S)

$4,500

9

18.2%

9

10-15%

18

Martellus Bennett (C)

$4,500

5

1.4%

7

2-7%

14

Charles Clay (V)

$3,300

7

1.7%

7

3-8%

12

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Jimmy Graham - With Rob Gronkowski on an early season bye week, Jimmy Graham vaults to the top of this week's rankings. Graham led the Seahawks in receiving Sunday with seven receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. If this production was a product of matchup, then this week he should excel even further as the Lions are allowing 283 yards per game through the air and nearly 28 points per game. The longer Marshawn Lynch is limited, the more red zone opportunities Graham will get. Graham is a near lock for a primetime, Monday Night Football touchdown.

Travis Kelce - Kelce saw a career high in targets Monday night with 10, corralling six of them for 80 yards. As previously said with Jimmy Graham, this slate doesn't feature Rob Gronkowski and tight end has the highest level of variance than any other offensive position. Kelce has been relatively consistent this year, with his lowest fantasy week still posting near ten fantasy points. A key to upcoming weeks with Kelce and the Kansas City offense is how they continue to work in Jeremy Maclin as one of their weapons. The higher of attention defenses have to pay to Maclin, means the less they will be able to pay to Kelce. Houston learned that the hard way in week one when they allowed 106 yards and two touchdowns to the Chiefs star tight end. This week the Chiefs travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, a team who has given up 260 yards a game through the air.

Safe

Jordan Reed - This is a play where after three weeks he could very easily be labeled elite. so far in 2015 Reed has 26 targets, 19 receptions, and 241 yards. He has also emerged as the Redskins top target with DeSean Jackson out with injury. His price is still very modest at $4,500 and faces a Philadelphia defense that is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air. Reed is still victim to having Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, but opportunity leads to productivity and there is nothing in the data to believe Reed is in line for a dud.

Contrarian

Martellus Bennett - The name isn't exactly a contrarian one, but his percentage is guaranteed to be very low this upcoming week. Bennett's numbers on the season have been pedestrian and the loss of Jay Cutler doesn't help his cause. However the Bears do face the Raiders this weekend, a team that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends through three games. Bennett will see a slight boost if fellow receiver Alshon Jeffery can return from injury to take some pressure off of him.

Value

Charles Clay - I typically don't like writing up a player after his first big week of the year in hopes that I'm not labeled a guy who is 'just chasing points'. However, Charles Clay sits in even a better spot in week four than he did in week three. The Bills face the Giants this week, a team that has given up 20 receptions, 241 yards, and three touchdowns through three weeks to tight ends. The Bills appear to be without LeSean McCoy for this matchup and the Giants do feature one of the top rushing defenses in the league. On the chance that the Bills high powered offense isn't able to gain traction on the ground, Clay will be in line for a few additional targets. Tyrod Taylor is proving he is the guy in Buffalo and is making great reads on the field. If Clay is able to exploit the Giants secondary, have no fear in if Taylor can find him or not.





Comments
MMP6288
Well, Written I have researched for about 10 hours over the past 2 days and you have mentioned 7 players that I am using over several line ups. Now the next Question is who is the QB of the week?
itzjamesftw
Appreciate the kind words. Always great to hear good reception after your first article. I also am in the same boat as you with quarterback. My eyes are drawn to Tyrod Taylor still being disrespected with his price only at $5,800. Derek Carr would make a nice contrarian stack with Cooper, his price is only $5,300. Higher priced options you have to like Rodgers as the safest for cash games.
MMP6288
We are on the same page I have selected Tyrod Taylor on several Line Ups I am also eyeing Andy Dalton but I am skeptical KC has given up a lot of yard through the air but I have a feeling Dalton is going to flop this week. I do like Aarons match up im making a line up to include him now. As for D. Carr, Yes he would go well with Cooper I see more upside coming out of Taylor being a duel threat QB.
zachsgotmoxy
I loved this article. It was well written and gave some great options.
eugene.p.riley
This was a very well written article, curious on any good stacks for the week?
Well done. I appreciate the variety of options as well as the detailed explanation of each.
Sam
Sam
@James - welcome to Cafe! Your article turned out great. Love the format and great info.
itzjamesftw
Thanks for the kind words guys. Eugene, I really like a Raiders stack. It's a bit outside the box but I think it's crazy enough to work and leave with plenty of cap to target some studs in your lineup. Carr-Cooper Wilson-Graham Rodgers-Cobb
JasonG4s
Awesome writeup James, really hoping Amari Cooper sticks somewhere in your week 4 percentages. Going to be a lot of buzz around him.
bigitaly42
Great stuff here James. Glad to have you on board! I'm with Jason here, I'm all aboard the Cooper train and hope he flies under the radar!
itzjamesftw
The buzz on Cooper has definitely picked up since writing this article. Realizing a lot more are on him than I thought. Hoping his percentage stays in that 10% range but fearing it might push past it at this point.
itzjamesftw
Probably going to go on the books as one of the lower scoring fantasy weeks I've seen. Murray projection fell flat, but it didn't help he left with an injury for a span and these rankings were assuming Cutler was out. Julio was an extreme let down. You tell me the Falcons have 42 points and Julio/Ryan have less than 20 fantasy points combined I tell you that you're crazy. Cooper at 32.1% started? That is insane to me.