NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 5

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Le'Veon Bell - Bell finished Thursday night with a total of 129 yards rushing and 21 receiving on seven receptions. In what appears to be a large stat line is actually quite disappointing had you watched the actual game. In several short yardage situations the Steelers failed to put the ball in the hands of their best play maker, instead letting Mike Vick attempt to make the big play. The Steelers travel to San Diego in week five to take on a Chargers team that is ranked 3rd in the league in pass yards allowed per game, but 28th in rush defense. The Steelers will need to learn from their mistakes if they want to save their season by leaning on one of the most dynamic players in the game. It is hard to project how many targets Bell could get in the passing game with Vick at quarterback, but I like the chances for it to be high.

Safe

Justin Forsett - Forsett erupted in week four with 150 yards on 27 carries. With the Ravens losing Steve Smith to injury, the Ravens offense now has a core of mediocre wide receivers to anchor its passing game around. With virtually no reliable passing game to lean on, the Ravens should turn to giving Forsett another monster workload against the second to last rated rush defense in Cleveland. The Browns have given up 141 yards per game on the ground, including monster games to Chris Ivory and Latavius Murray. Forsett may arguably be the best running back the Browns will have faced so far this year.

Mark Ingram - Ingram was about six inches away from padding his week four stats with a touchdown, but it was called down by contact at the inch line. Aside from that call Ingram had a well rounded game against the Cowboys rushing for 77 yards and hauling in six catches for 51 yards. CJ Spiller had the 80 yard game winner in overtime, but there is nothing to show that Spiller is going to eat into Ingram's production. Ingram being targeted in the passing game has really elevated his standing as a viable fantasy candidate week in and week out. Ingram is the second most targeted running back in the NFL right now and will face the Eagles in week five. The Eagles haven't had any real positives to focus on, on either side of the ball. I expect this to be one of the higher projected games in Vegas for week five.

Contrarian

Doug Martin - After being questionable most of the week, Doug Martin put together his best performance of the year rushing for 106 yards and catching all five of his targets for 37 yards. The Buccaneers appeared out of the game early but it didn't diminish the work Martin got on the ground. Martin was a sleeper to bounce back to the Martin of old coming into this season, but diminished play from Jameis Winston has certainly hurt his draft stock. The Bucs get the Jags in week five, a team that features a strong rush defense. However, the aspect that the Buccaneers may be able to stay in a competitive game make Doug Martin at his cheap price a great contrarian pick.

Value

Todd Gurley - Gurley was active for the first time in week three against the Steelers and only carried the ball six times for a total of nine yards. Not a whole lot was expected of Gurley moving into a tough road matchup in Arizona but he came out and showed why he was the first running back taken in this year's draft. Gurley lit it up for 146 yards on 19 carries, a whopping 7.7 a carry. The Rams also ended up handing the Cardinals their first loss of the season. The Rams offense is not strong and that isn't that hard to see. They will travel to Lambeau Field in week five to take on a tough Packers pass defense. Nick Foles may have trouble getting it going through the air and Gurley should be leaned on heavily. The biggest concern is the Packers produce too large of a lead that renders Gurley unusable in running situations. At this time the skill set and projected workload don't match his low price of $4,300.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Demaryius Thomas - In four week's this season Thomas has seen targets of 11, 14, 13, and 12. The lack of the big play has kept Thomas' name relatively quiet this season, though he has put up fantastic fantasy numbers the last three weeks despite only having one touchdown on the season. In week five the Broncos travel to Oakland to take on a Raiders team that is ranked almost dead last in pass defense and total defense. Thomas is safe to deploy in any format and makes a great stack with QB Peyton Manning who carries a very cheap price tag. I expect both to be very highly owned come Sunday.

Safe

Jeremy Maclin - In Maclin's last two weeks he has 25 targets, 19 receptions, 289 yards and one touchdown.. Maclin has averaged 30 fantasy points over his past two weeks and gets a week five matchup against the Bears. In four week the Bears have given up point totals of 31, 42, 26, and 20 to their opponents so come Sunday there should be plenty of points to go around. Maclin is only seeing a $200 price raise on DraftKings after posting a near 30 point fantasy performance.

Contrarian

Brandin Cooks - Most would label Cooks a fantasy bust so far in 2015, with him yet to top 100 yards or find the end zone. Through four weeks so far this season Cooks has seen targets of 8, 8, 7, and 8, so the consistency is there. Anyone who has seen Cooks play in the past knows he is a monster play away from happening and he gets his easiest matchup of the year this week against Philadelphia. The risk is going to remain there with Cooks as the Saints offense has almost become a run first offense, but Cooks floor appears to be eight targets, it's just yet to be seen if his ceiling will ever be above that.

Value

Martavis Bryant - After serving his four game suspension, Bryant will be available for the Steelers this week. There are several drawbacks here though. One, Mike Vick is still the man at quarterback for the Steelers. Bryant was the Steelers big play machine last year with touchdowns of 52, 80, and 94 yards on the season. He is not going to be heavily targeted, with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell getting most of the work, but if Bryant can slip through the defense and most importantly, Mike Vick can get him the ball, then Bryant may pick up right where he left off last season. It is difficult to project his ownership this week as the price tag is likely to entice several players, but the quarterback situation could keep them away. Therefore Bryant falls into a bit of a grey area between contrarian and value. It is also difficult to project his output as it is uncertain if any 'team penalties' will be handed down, or if he will move right back into the starting mix. Bryant possesses the riskiest of the risky plays this week. But his low price will place him on a lot of rosters.

Kamar Aiken - With the loss of Steve Smith it is 'next man up' in Baltimore. After Smith exited last Thursday night's game Aiken stepped in to haul in five passes for 77 yards. Entering week five, the Ravens are only going to have Kamar Aiken, Marlon Brown, Darren Waller, and Chris Givens active at wide out. It is difficult to project how the Ravens will run their offense come Sunday, but Aiken is now the de facto number one wide out in Baltimore. Aiken had catches on the game tying and game winning drives Thursday night so Flacco's confidence in him may justify him as a cheap wide out option this week.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Rob Gronkowski - Not much needs to be said about Gronk that we don't already know. In three weeks he is averaging 103 yards a game and has four touchdowns. He is averaging a shade over nine targets a game and is still Tom Brady's top red zone option. The Patriots get a primetime game against the Cowboys in week five, fresh off of a bye.

Safe

Jason Witten - With Brandon Weeden at quarterback, Jason Witten's ceiling may be a little bit capped; but through four weeks Witten has 31 targets and 25 receptions. He has yet to gain over 65 total yards, but has yet to go lower than 56. With the loss of Lance Dunbar for the season there are about 7-to-8 more targets to go around the Dallas offense.

Contrarian

Antonio Gates - The Chargers get their franchise corner-stone tight end back from a four game suspension this week. After losing Michael Floyd and Stevie Johnson to injury against the Browns, the Chargers will be welcoming Gates back with open arms. Gates will be entering week five refreshed and healthy and has a matchup against a Steelers team that has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends so far this season.

Value

Owen Daniels - Daniels is next man up against a horrific Oakland defense against tight ends. Martellus Bennett reaped the rewards last week with 13 targets, 11 receptions, 83 yards and a touchdown. Daniels offensive upside is capped at a much lower level than what Bennett could produce, but for the price of $2,700 he is almost certain to cross the 10 fantasy point threshold.

Other

Charles Clay - I can't call Charles Clay safe, but with 20.4% starting him last week he also isn't contrarian. His price tag is also rising, so he no longer is exactly a value. Charles Clay falls in the ultimate gray area this week, but still deserves to be mentioned. In his last two weeks he has 20 targets and 14 receptions. With Sammy Watkins out in week four, Clay saw his largest workload with nine catches for 111 yards. His targets are a bit dependent on if Sammy Watkins plays of not, but with Watkins questionable it is a situation worth watching.