NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 6

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Matt Forte - If you take away the fact that Matt Forte has only found the end zone twice, his price and production don't quite add up. Currently the Bears are without wide outs Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal and their status for week six remains up in the air. In the meantime Forte has seen 11 targets and 42 touches in his last two games. On a site like DraftKings that is full PPR, five or six receptions is scored just like a touchdown. The Bears will face the Lions in week six, a team that has been absolutely torched through the air and on the ground this year. With Forte's price at only $7,100 and a matchup with the Lions on the horizon, Forte is one of the safest and highest upside plays in week six.

Arian Foster - There were a few big takeaways from Arian Foster's Thursday night return last week. Firstly, he was able to leave the game healthy after a second quarter concussion scare. Secondly, he touched the ball a total of 28 times for a total of 118 yards. Neither Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer are strong quarterback candidates and neither have confidence throwing downfield. This was shown on Thursday when Foster received ten targets in the passing game in what was his first game action since early August. Since the Texans played on Thursday, Foster gets an extra three days rest before taking on the Jaguars in week six. Jacksonville has featured a relatively stout rush defense so far on the season, but just gave up near 40 fantasy points to Doug Martin. Foster's ownership percentage could remain semi-low this week if people still are wary about risking $7,000 of their salary on someone one week returned from injury, however I am not that person.

Safe

Dion Lewis - Lewis finally falls victim to a price hike this week, but if he can anywhere near 11 targets again this week the price is still way too low. Lewis was targeted a career high 11 times and caught eight of those for 59 yards and a touchdown; he also out-snapped Blount 43-to-17. Through his four weeks of play so far this year, Lewis has 30 targets, 23 receptions, and three touchdowns. Most of the damage is going to be done through the air with Lewis, but the extra 7 or 8 carries a game are just added bonus. The Patriots locked Lewis up to a two-year extension early last week, showing that he is there to stay. Next up for the Patriots is a Colts team given up near 300 through the air and 115 on the ground per game.

Contrarian

Chris Ivory - This isn't by any means the most contrarian pick ever, but the matchup may scare a few people off of Ivory. In his last game versus the Dolphins in London, Ivory carried the ball 29 times for 166 yards and a touchdown. Ivory is coming fresh off a bye and will now face a Redskins defense ranked fifth in stopping the run, allowing only 95 yards per game. The Jets opened as a six point home favorite, so a Ivory's usage should remain high all game. The offense has found a rhythm in New York and Ryan Fitzpatrick is managing games better than Geno Smith ever has.

Value

Charcandrick West - With the gruesome injury to Jamaal Charles it is next man up in Kansas City. Early indications are that West and Knile Davis will split backfield duties, but the fact that West out-snapped Davis 31-to-7 after Charles left with injury tells me Andy Reid's favor leans towards West. There is a ton of inexperience here on the side of West, but the second year back compares closer to Charles than Davis does. After Charles departure, West ran the ball seven times for 31 yards and caught one of his two targets out of the backfield. Keep up on news through-out the week to see how this situation shakes out, but if West is named the starter then I have no issue deploying West for his $4,000 price tag.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Odell Beckham Jr. - Beckham caught seven of 11 targets Sunday night en route to 121 yards and a touchdown, marking his second best output game of the season. His price this week comes in at the cheapest it has been since week two when it was $8,800. In five games so far this season Beckham has 52 total targets and only 31 catches, showing quarterback Eli Manning is certainly looking OBJ's way. The Giants travel to Philadelphia in week six to take on a Eagles passing defense that ranks 24th in the NFL. OBJ tops the projections this week.

DeAndre Hopkins - Not only does DeAndre Hopkins lead the NFL in targets he leads it by 12. After a 22 target performance back in week four, he followed it up with a 14 target performance in week five, in which he hauled in 11 of them for 169 yards. Hopkins didn't find much success last Thursday until Ryan Mallet was benched in favor of Brian Hoyer. With Arian Foster back and an immediate threat in the flats some attention may be drawn away from Hopkins leaving the most targeted wide receiver in the NFL open for... More targets. Nothing to fear in week six as the Texans get a weak Jacksonville secondary.

Safe

Larry Fitzgerald - Through six weeks this season Fitzgerald has failed to catch below five passes and has yet to go below 58 yards. His five reception, 58 yard performance in week five was actually his lowest output of the season, but you have to take into fact that the Cardinals were up 28 on the Lions and the run game dominated most of the fourth quarter. Before week five, Fitzgerald had yet to see less than eight targets or record less than 87 yards. Carson Palmer may be playing the best football of his career and Larry Fitzgerald is easily his favorite target. Up next is a Steelers team ranking near the middle in total defense.

Jeremy Maclin - With the Chiefs losing their star running back in Jamaal Charles, the offense could look to lean a little heavier on Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is already the seventh most targeted wide receiver in the NFL, averaging a shade over ten targets per game. If Maclin had more than one touchdown on the season we would be viewing him as a top five fantasy wide-out from a fantasy point stand point, but the fact that he is still producing fantasy outings in the high 20's shows you just how important targeting PPR receivers on DraftKings is. Next up for Maclin and the Chiefs are the Vikings, a team that muddles in the middle of all defensive categories.

Contrarian / Value

Jamison Crowder - I have been taking a wait and see approach with Crowder before comfortably deploying him, but I think that time has finally come. The rookie from Duke started the season slow, catching only two passes in his first two weeks. Since then however he has averaged near nine targets a game and has outputted fantasy performances of 12.5, 13.5, and 16.7. Anytime I can roster a team's leading receiver in yards, receptions, and targets for less than $4,000 he is worth a look despite matchup. The Redskins get the Jets this week, a team who has featured a strong defense this year, but Vegas opened them as less than a touchdown favorites. If the Redskins play from behind as Vegas predicts the ball should be in the air for Crowder a bit more.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Elite

Rob Gronkowski - If you are looking for the week to unleash Gronk in your DFS lineups this is the week. Gronkowski is coming off of a season low in targets with 5, most in part to the Patriots building a large lead quickly on the Cowboys. This week the Patriots travel to Indianapolis and the Colts 28th ranked passing defense. Gronkowski tallied a touchdown in both meetings with the Colts last year and Vegas has this game marked as the highest potential scoring game of the week. The tight end choices this week are a bit tougher, so if you are looking to play it safe then this is the week to pay up for Gronk.

Safe

Martellus Bennett - By looking just at game logs, Martellus Bennett would not fall into the thinking of safe play. I should also mention this play is very contingent on the health of receivers Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal. Bennett only hauled in four catches for 32 yards last week against the Chiefs, however he was targeted a team high 11 times. The volume in targets and the fact that the Bears will face an 0-and-5 Detroit Lions team next points all arrows upward for Bennett this week.

Antonio Gates - It feels a bit strange calling Gates safe after just one week on the field but his connection with quarterback Philip Rivers is undoubtedly still there. Gates posted a monster performance Monday night being targeted 11 times and catching nine for 92 yards and a touchdown. There is a potential shootout on the horizon with the Packers on Sunday and if Green Bay gets a lead then Rivers will have the ball in the air a lot. Packers have a stout pass defense so far this year, but on DraftKings we are looking more for targets than yards and Gates should have no problem seeing near double digit targets.

Contrarian

Richard Rodgers - With no Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers has grabbed hold of the top tight end job in Green Bay and has seen an increase in targets the past two weeks. He has now posted back to back 45 yard receiving games, averaging 5.5 receptions per the last two weeks. Any offensive player in a system led by Aaron Rodgers has a good chance to produce on any given week, and though Rodgers ceiling isn't that high, he is setting a nice floor averaging ten fantasy points per game. The Packers will host the Chargers come this Sunday in what should be one of the higher scoring affairs this week.

Value

Zach Ertz - Ertz has been off to a slow start on the season after missing the preseason with a knee injury. Though banged up, Ertz has still seen an average of 5.5 targets per game and has been becoming more involved week to week. Last week against the Saints Ertz had his best performance of the year catching five passes for 60 yards on eight targets. This week the Eagles get the Giants, a team ranked second to last against tight ends this year. The Raiders and Giants have been popular stream options this week, so if that is a strategy you like to employ then Ertz is your next man up.