NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 7

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Devonta Freeman - Even with the Falcons playing from behind last Thursday night against the Saints, Freeman still found a way to not only match his last two week performances, but actually best them. In Freeman's last four weeks he has fantasy point performances of 45.3, 37.9, 35.7, and 38.6. In a way, projecting Freeman for 34 points feels like short changing him, but I don't think it is possible to project the performances Freeman is putting up. With Tevin Coleman back Freeman should lose 4-8 carries per game, but there is no denying the offensive impact Freeman is making in Atlanta. This is one of the safest cash game plays there are out there right now, but just know absolutely everyone is going to be on him. Problem is, I don't know if it is possible to fade him.

DeMarco Murray - After a horrible start to his season and the Eagles season all together, things seem to be back on track in Philadelphia from both stand points. Murray eclipsed 100 yards Monday night for the first time all season and has now seen back to back weeks of 20 plus carries. Back in week five Murray was targeted eight times and saw another four in week six. It seems the Eagles are finally treating Murray like the feature back he is and should see a similar workload next Sunday night when the Eagles take on the Panthers. Like some players in the past, Murray doesn't really fall into the category of "safe" this week, but his price and ownership should also be high enough where he isn't value or contrarian either. Murray is just a middle of the pact solid play this week.

Todd Gurley - The training wheels are fully off of Todd Gurley and the St. Louis Rams have already made him the workhorse of their offense. In his first full start in week five Gurley rushed 30 times for 159 yards against Green Bay. On 55 attempts this season Gurley is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, averaging 20 fantasy points a game, and has still yet to find the end zone. That will change in week seven as the Rams face the Browns, a team ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 149. Gurley will be in every single lineup of mine this week with his absurdly low price of $5,000.

Lamar Miller - If I could ask Joe Philbin one question since his firing I would ask him why Lamar Miller never became part of the game plan this season. The talented 24 year old back was poised for a breakout season in 2015 until Philbin just seemed to cast him aside. With the Dolphins making a coaching change this week to Dan Campbell fingers were crossed that Miller would be re-implemented as the feature back and that is the exact thing that happened. Miller carried the rock 19 times for 119 yards in the Dolphins week six win over the Titans. The best thing is that his price on DraftKings doesn't seem to reflect that game much, as it jumped only $300 for $4,300 to $4,600. Next up for the Dolphins is a home matchup against the Texans who sport a rush defense ranked in the bottom third of the league.

Jonathan Stewart - Stewart pieced together his best performance of the season in week six, carrying the ball 20 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns. It was a grind-it-out game for Stewart who didn't have a rush longer than 11 yards, but managed fight for extra yardage against a top Seattle defense. This game should act as a nice confidence boost for Stewart and the Panthers heading into next Monday nights matchup against Philadelphia. The Eagles sport a decent run defense, but as a whole give up near 400 yards per game. Don't let Stewart's week six trick you into thinking he is safe as his fantasy numbers are very touchdown dependant, but for $4,000 he is in a very nice spot to hit value and be a sneaky tournament play.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

DeAndre Hopkins - Hopkins falls victim to a large (but needed) price boost on DraftKings this week, one of $900 to be exact, but he is finally being priced as the superstar he is. Hopkins hauled in ten of 15 targets in week six for 148 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins now has 89 targets on the season, which leads the league by 14 over Demaryius Thomas. The price hike is going to scare some people off of Hopkins, but a matchup against the Dolphins is nothing too scary from a matchup standpoint. When you factor in his production and compare his price to the recent production of Julio Jones and OBJ, it is a wonder how Hopkins doesn't cost even more than he does.

Brandon Marshall - A price hike to wide receivers is a common theme this week as almost every productive wide out has seen a drastic increase in price, tightening salaries for week seven. Brandon Marshall has been the epitome of consistencies for the Jets, averaging eight receptions, 115 yards, and near a touchdown a week over the past four weeks. Marshall has yet to score below 18 fantasy points is seeing consistently 11-12 targets a game. The Jets travel to Foxboro on Sunday to take on an undefeated Patriots team, which almost guarantees the Jets will have to throw the ball. Expect Marshall to see one of his highest targeted weeks of the year.

Willie Snead - The offense in New Orleans right now is anything but safe. It doesn't really make sense, you don't really know who is getting the ball, and Drew Brees hasn't quite looked like himself. One thing that is noticeable however is that Marques Colston has fallen out of favor as the number two wide receiver in favor of Willie Snead. Snead, the rookie out of Ball State, has had at least four receptions and 44 yards in five straight games, including a six reception, 141 yard performance back in week five. His targets have been consistent as well, seeing about seven per game. This week the Saints will face the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Vegas already predicts this to be the highest scoring game of the week and the Colts struggle covering number two or slot receivers, allowing 71 yards per game to number two receivers.

Donte Moncrief - With the return of Andrew Luck, a boost to Mocrief's numbers seem to be in line. In week six Moncrief caught six of 11 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. Mocrief is on pace for over 120 targets this season, which is just a shade behind Hilton's projection of 140. The Colts will face a weak Saints secondary in week seven, where Moncrief will look to continue to be the go-to receiver in the red zone.

Cecil Shorts - Shorts is just one week returned from a shoulder injury, but before his injury he saw games with targets of 8, 12, 9, and 10. The weapons are sparse in Houston, with the offense revolving around Arian Foster and DeAndre Hopkins, so with that much attention on them Shorts has put up very consistent targets and fantasy outputs. He isn't going to throw up a huge score, but has yet to score below nine fantasy points and has been upwards of 20. With Hopkins putting up repetitive monster numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see teams start to double him. If this happened Shorts could be in line for a handful of more targets.

UPDATE: Shorts has now been ruled out for Sunday due to a shoulder injury.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Antonio Gates - In two games this year Gates has nine catches in both, for 95 and 92 yards. He failed to find the end zone this past Sunday but did see an insane 16 targets. Gates will face an Oakland team getting torched this season by touchdowns. This is the safest cash game play there is and his ownership is going to be astronomical.

Greg Olsen - Olsen is the top target for the Panthers offense, though he has been known to put up duds in good spots which makes me hesitant on labeling Olsen elite and he has burned me in the past when I think he is safe. This past weekend against Seattle he came to play catching seven passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. He has three weeks above 10 targets but also has two weeks under six targets. In his two down weeks he failed to get over two receptions and over 30 yards. On paper his matchup against the Eagles looks good, but the Eagles have one of the better defenses in the league against tight ends. Your options are very limited at the tight end spot this week and Olsen's volume should be there for him to produce.

Gary Barnidge - Barnidge now has a touchdown streak of four weeks and has become a weekly relevant name in fantasy football. After a slow start to the season Barnidge has put up 25, 19, 30, and 16 fantasy points over the past four weeks and is averaging eight targets per game. It's hard to ignore the chemistry he has built with quarterback Josh McCown and is a now a top red zone threat for Cleveland. The Browns face the Rams this week in what is not a desirable matchup on paper, but with Barnidge trending up and his targets being there, he projects as a nice contrarian pick this week away from Antonio Gates.

Delanie Walker - The Titans are a very inconsistent offensive team. A lot of that is growing pains with rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, mixed with the lack of talent at the running back position. Delanie Walker continues to serve as a sort of 'safety blanket' for the Titans, tending to produce when the opportunity presents itself. In week six Walker caught eight passes for 97 yards. He hasn't had any monster performances on the year and only has one touchdown, but has seen two weeks of double digit targets in the past three games. The bright side for Walker is the Titans next opponent is Atlanta, a team that struggles against the pass and struggles even more against the tight end position. Ben Watson just torched the Atlanta secondary last Thursday for 127 yards, so it will be interesting to see what a more talented player in Walker can do to them. His lack of finding the end zone is going to keep his projection low, but he is always a threat.

Jordan Cameron - From a statistical stand point, Jordan Cameron's season has been pretty disappointing. But with former head coach Joe Philbin kicked to the curb, Cameron may be re-integrated into the game plan as a play maker. Through five weeks of action Cameron is averaging seven targets per game, but is only catching around 40% of those. He has only caught over three passes once this year and that was back in week one. However, Cameron did lead the Dolphins in targets in week six and he found the end zone for the first time on the season. So the data shows he is part of the game plan, the execution just seems to be off. Cameron is a cheap punt with playmaking upside come Sunday.