NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 8

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Devonta Freeman - Freeman's insane touchdown binge wasn't going to last forever and it came to an end last week against the Titans. The Falcons offense never really got anything going all game, scoring just ten points against the Titans. Freeman still found a way to eclipse 100 yards for the fourth time in five weeks, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The Falcons this week get a home matchup against a Buccaneers team that has given up a league leading 29.8 points per game. This is an ultra safe matchup for Freeman as he will either be a play marker in a close game, or a playmaker burning clock in a blowout.

Marshawn Lynch - After missing two weeks with a hamstring injury, Lynch got his full work load back rushing 27 times for 122 yards last Thursday in a win over the Niners. A healthy Lynch will hit the field in Dallas this week to take on a Cowboys defense that is giving up 27 points per game, but only 100 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys have already faced the Giants twice, making their defensive rushing stats a bit deceiving (that's right Giants, I am calling you out!). I think Lynch's ownership may remain relatively low since Freeman will still be heavily owned, making Lynch a slight contrarian pick.

Todd Gurley - I typically don't like writing up the same people in back to back weeks, but I can't for the life of me pass on another opportunity to talk about Todd Gurley. Over the past three weeks Gurley has rushed for 433 yards on 68 carries, which is an astounding 6.3 YPC. Gurley found the end zone twice this last week for his first two touchdowns of his career, and he also found huge paydays for nearly every top DFS lineup. Over 55% of entries started Gurley across multiple tournaments, making him one of the chalkiest plays I think I have ever seen. So how does DraftKings counter-act a 60% started player who is averaging 25 fantasy points over his last three weeks? They raise his price to $6,300, the same price as Eddie Lacy. This is still not high enough of a price jump to keep Gurley's percentage down and a matchup against the lowly Niners make it even better. Fire up Gurley as an elite RB1 option.

Eddie Lacy - This is one of my most contrarian write-ups in a long time and I am going out on a limb a bit with this one, but there is merit to it. Lacy had a disappointing week six against the Chargers, carrying the ball only four times for three yards. James Starks took over the lead back role as Lacy still looked hampered by his ankle injury. With the bye week hitting last week, Lacy has had an extra week to rest the ankle and most media reports seem to point at him coming back to his normal workload. The Packers face the Broncos on Sunday night, a matchup that features two of the best offenses but also two of the best defenses. This is going to be a grind it out game and I can see Lacy being worked between the tackles quite often. I think Lacy's slow start has already made people forget that he averaged near five yards per carry last year and was a near pro bowler. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Lacy find the end zone and grind out near 100 all purpose yards come Sunday night.

Alfred Blue - With the news that Arian Foster will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles, Alfred Blue is once again the starter in Houston. Outside of a 139 yard performance in week three against Tampa Bay, Blue didn't really seize his opportunity when Foster missed the first three games of the season. There is some talk that Chris Polk or Jon Grimes could slide into the starting role, but the safe move is to go with the experience of Blue. Throwing all past stats aside, Blue has a great matchup this week against a weak Tennessee rushing defense. For only $3,500 you can't really do much better.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Antonio Brown - Every night before bed I can imagine Antonio Brown was praying that Ben Roethlisberger would be back sooner than later. In four weeks without Big Ben, Brown saw three of them go below ten fantasy points with fewer than 50 yards in all of them. Brown had a bit more success with Landry Jones at the helm than Mike Vick, but nothing can replace the connection he has with Roethlisberger. If there is a bright side here it that Brown's price has fallen to $7,800 which is the lowest his salary has been all season. With Roethlisberger primed to come back this week Brown is an absolute must play for me as both are going to come out hungry.

Alshon Jeffery - Jeffery has only suited up for two games so far this year. A disappointing week one against Green Bay, and a successful week six against Detroit. Jeffery's opening price this year was $8,300 and his closing price this week is $6,400, placing him as a mid-tier priced play with elite play making upside. The Bears got the week off last week, so Jeffery got to rest coming off of a healthy 11 target performance in week six. Jeffery's price alone makes him one of the safest plays of the weekend.

Eric Decker - If you are looking for safe and consistent, then Eric Decker is the mainstay of both of those words. In his last four contests he has averaged six receptions for 75 yards, finding the end zone three times. His ceiling is a bit limited by Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has turned the New York offense into multi-dimensional threat. This week the Jets take on the 32nd ranked passing defense of Oakland. For $5,300 Decker makes for a pretty safe cash game option.

Michael Crabtree - With the top level play of rookie Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree's current play has been a bit over-shadowed. He hasn't set the world on fire or anything, but is averaging near eight targets a game and 15 fantasy points. This week the Raiders will take on the Jets stifling defense, which may bode well for Crabtree. With the Jets sporting the best rush defense in the league, Latavius Murray may not be much of a factor in this game. And with Darrell Revis on Amari Cooper, the process of elimination leaves Crabtree as the best offensive weapon without an 'impossible' matchup. His price is right for a GPP dart and could pay off for the price tag of only $4,700.

Michael Floyd - After being a complete non-factor in the first four weeks of the season, Floyd has now posted back to back weeks with a touchdown and over 50 yards. Floyd didn't see his price jump at all since the Cardinals played on Monday night, so his price remained at $3,500. With an average of 15 fantasy points over his last two games, I can see Floyd being a decently high owned value play when the Cardinals face the Browns in week eight.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Jason Witten - With Matt Cassel making his first start for the Cowboys, he leaned heavily on tight end Jason Witten as he ended as the leader in receptions, targets, and yards for the Cowboys. Dallas has a tough matchup on paper with the Seahawks in week eight, but the Seahawks have actually give up the second most points to tight ends this season. Through seven weeks Seattle has given up five touchdowns to tight ends and roughly 11.9 fantasy points per game.

Martellus Bennett - In terms of strict fantasy points, Bennett hasn't had the greatest season of all tight ends. He is only averaging about 12.5 fantasy points per game, but he remains one of the most targeted tight ends in football. Upon the return of Alshon Jeffery to the Bears, Bennett still tied with Jeffery in targets with 11. The Bears had a bye last week and face the Vikings this week, a team that ranks in the lower third in defense against tight ends. Bennett has seen double digit targets in his last three games, and is second in the NFL for targets by a tight end.

Gary Barnidge - Barnidge's streak of four straight games with a touchdown came to an end on Sunday but he still managed to put together a 100 yard performance. In Barnidge's last five games he has yet to fall below 18 fantasy points, with topping 25 twice. I don't think anyone thought we would get to the point of calling Gary Barnidge elite, but albeit it's hard to label his production as anything else. If Josh McCown misses time, you may need to think a bit more about Barnidge, as the chemistry with Manziel isn't quite the same.

Richard Rodgers - Rodgers is a player a bit dependant on touchdowns, but with Aaron Rodgers as quarterback you can't discount anyone in the passing game. Over the past three games for the Packers Rodgers has seen targets of 8, 6, and 5. So far on the 2015 season Rodgers is averaging just a shade under ten fantasy points per game. The Packers face the Broncos this week in a tough matchup, which could have Aaron Rodgers looking Richard Rodgers way a few extra times if Denver adds extra attention to Randall Cobb and James Jones.

Heath Miller - Since the injury to Ben Roethlisberger, Heath Miller has been used as more of a blocker than a receiver, trying to buy extra time for Mike Vick and Landry Jones. With Roethlisberger slated to return this week, Miller may return to his role of old as a pass catching threat and favorite target. Miller's price has dropped to $2,700 and though there is no direct guarantee that Miller automatically returns to a pass catching role, the price makes it worth the risk in a GPP lineup.