NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 9

Running Backs

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Devonta Freeman - In a slate with limited top priced options Devonta Freeman once again tops the charts as the safest play of the week. In the Falcons week eight loss to Tampa Freeman ran the ball 21 times for 88 yards and added 43 yards receiving on eight targets. Freeman has now been held scoreless in his last two weeks after racking up nine touchdowns the previous four. Expect Freeman to turn things around when the Falcons face a 49ers team that is giving up 123 yards on the ground per game and over 400 in total defense. The best take away from week eight is that fellow running back Tevin Coleman only saw three total carries, showing Freeman is in fact the bell cow.

Chris Ivory - Ivory had a disappointing performance in week eight, but we can chalk that up to the Jets going down early and having their quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick being knocked out of the game. The Jets offense never got going with Geno Smith under center and brought back a lot of bad memories of how Ivory was used last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is rumored to have torn ligaments in his non-throwing hand, an injury the quarterback could be able to play through. Regardless who starts for the Jets Sunday against Jacksonville, they are going to have to make Chris Ivory the headline of the offense to stay competitive. The Jaguars just have a middle of a mill defense and should receive the volume to be a safe play this week. Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are questionable, so keep an eye on this situation. The best case for Ivory's value is for Fitzpatrick to play.

LeSean McCoy - With a London game followed by a bye week, we haven't got the opportunity to talk about the Bills much these past two weeks. In McCoy's last two starts he has averaged 18 carries per game, carrying the ball for 68 and 90 yards across the two games. McCoy has only found the end zone twice so far this season, but also missed two weeks due to a hamstring injury. The extra week of rest from the bye is certainly beneficial for McCoy, as he will enter week nine fully healthy arguably for the first time this season. Next up for McCoy and the Bills is a Dolphins team ranked 26th in the NFL in rush defense and McCoy's price is near $1,500 cheaper than where it started the season.

Darren McFadden - With no real passing threat in Dallas, McFadden was leaned on heavily last Sunday, running the ball 20 times an seeing eight targets in the passing game. McFadden didn't get much going on the ground against a stout Seattle defense, only averaging 3.2 yards per carry. However McFadden did heavy damage in the passing game hauling in six passes for 49 yards. With a price of only $4,300 McFadden should see an amount of volume that greatly outweighs his price point.

Jeremy Langford - This play depends mostly on the health of Matt Forte and the projections are made with the assumption that Forte will not play this week. Forte left last Sunday's game against the Vikings in the third quarter and most reports are calling it an MCL injury. If he was to miss the game rookie Jeremy Langford would most likely get the start. The rookie out of Michigan State gets a dream matchup with San Diego this week, a defense that has given up a 100 yard rusher in six of their last seven games.

Wide Receivers

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Demaryius Thomas - With the big play names like Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins, a name that has been swept under the rug a bit is Demaryius Thomas. I guess sometimes it's best when people aren't really talking about you or touting you, but Thomas is quietly having one of the most consistent fantasy seasons. If Thomas had more than one touchdown on the season he would be posting fantasy numbers that would price him in the lower $9,000 level on DraftKings. Thomas has only fell under double digits once this year in targets and is averaging near 13 targets a game and 100 yard receiving. Touchdown's are a thing that become very hard to project in fantasy football as with a talent like Thomas they are going to come naturally. Regardless, being priced as the eighth most expensive wide receiver in a matchup against the 30th ranked pass defense seems too good to pass up.

Alshon Jeffery - I have a feeling this is going to be the last week to play Alshon Jeffery at a great discount. I am a bit surprised that DraftKings hasn't greatly risen his price yet, raising it only $300 more than last week. In week one Jeffery was priced as an elite talent at $8,300, which in my opinion is a fair price for him. Jeffery then missed four weeks with an injury, dropping it to $6,400 upon return. In Jeffery's two weeks back he has posted 30.6 and 31.7 fantasy point performances, averaging 13 targets and 125 yards. Jeffery is an elite talent, who sees an elite volume in targets, and posts elite fantasy numbers. The fact that he was under 20% owned in week eight is baffling to me, so take advantage of the price while you can.

Jarvis Landry - Typically I like to target players on an upward trend or a player that is sticking to a consistent trend. Landry at this point is playing in a bit of a downtrend when it comes solely to targets. After averaging 12 targets a game over the first four weeks of the season, Landry has only seen averages of six targets the past three weeks. The brightside to Landry is that he plays the ball in multiple ways whether it be in the passing game, running game, or even punt return game. Regardless of Landry's downtrend in targets, his fantasy production is still up to pace as he has yet to drop below double digits in fantasy points this season. Next up for Dolphins is a struggling Bills secondary. He is a big play receiver who tends to go under owned week to week.

Martavis Bryant - With the Steelers losing star running back Le'Veon Bell for the season the rest of the offense is going to see a slight uptick in production. The Steelers will still lean heavy on DeAngelo Williams in the running game, but I don't think the volume Bell handles will directly translate to Williams. Bryant was a heavily owned player in week eight that disappointed, catching only four passes for 49 yards. However Bryant did see nine targets and is averaging that same number over the three games he has played this season. The Steelers face the Raiders this week, a team that features the third best rushing defense in the league, but the 30th ranked pass defense. At $5,500 you are paying the most you have this season for Bryant, but I still think he comes at a pretty good value. Also coming off of a 8.9 fantasy point performance should drop his percentage owned by a little bit.

Robert Woods - With Sammy Watkins questionable and Percy Harvin doubtful, Robert Woods could once again be in line for a WR1 workload. Back in week seven Woods saw an incredible 13 targets, turning that into nine catches and 84 yards. Woods benefited from a previous chemistry with EJ Manuel as his quarterback but it seems Tyrod Taylor will be back this week. Regardless who is at the helm, targeting a number one wide out in an offense for $3,500 is never a bad thing. Keep an eye on Sammy Watkin's status throughout the week as if he was active it would drop Wood's production a bit.

Tight End

(E=Elite, S=Safe, C=Contrarian, V=Value)

Rob Gronkowski - Week in and week out when Rob Gronkowski is on the slate odds are he is going to be the top overall play. This week is no different as we get him off of back to back 100 yard performances with a touchdown in each. Over the past two weeks Gronk is averaging 28.5 fantasy points per contest and has seen weekly target totals of 16 and 9. On the season Gronk has yet to fall below 50 yards and is averaging a touchdown per game.

Antonio Gates - After missing week seven due to a knee injury, Gates returned to the field catching four passes for 56 yards. Gates played a limited number of snaps as he was still being worked back from his knee and it's best not to rush the aging talent. The Chargers lost Keenan Allen this week to what could be a long term injury, so Gates will be an even more valuable and leaned upon asset in the pass happy Chargers offense.

Jordan Reed - The Redskins had a bye in week eight, but back in week seven Jordan Reed returned to the field in a big way. Reed was targeted 13 times and caught 11 of them for 72 yards and two touchdowns, including the winning one. When completely healthy this season Reed has put together high-end TE1 numbers, averaging near seven receptions a game for 75 yards. In five games this season Reed is averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game on DraftKings. Redskins face a tough Patriots team this week, but knowing that they will likely be playing from behind means the ball will be in the air more than the ground.

Benjamin Watson - Watson lead the Saints in week eight catching 9-of-10 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. It's now the second time in three weeks that Watson has led the Saints in targets and yardage. Watson has been riding a pretty cheap salary all season, just now finally getting the price bump up to $4,000. This is a play that is still susceptible to putting up a dud, but it is hard to argue with the recent numbers he is putting up. Over the past four weeks Watson is averaging 22 fantasy points per game. Up next is a matchup against a tough Titans pass defense, but one that may benefit Watson as the Titans rank in the lower third of the league in defense against tight end.

Heath Miller - I wrote up Miller last week saying that he could be a huge boom or bust player with Ben Roethlisberger back at quarterback. With the price tag of $2,700, Miller possessed the ultimate GPP value mixed with just the right amount of upside for me to roll out across several lineups. All hopes came to fruition on Sunday when Miller caught ten passes for 105 yards on a season high 13 targets for the veteran tight end. The Steelers lost star running back Le'Veon bell this week, which may open up a few more targets for Miller in the passing game as Roethlisberger may look to throw the ball a bit more the rest of the season. Besides Miller's basement dwelling $2,700 price tag, he also faces a Raiders team this week that has given up eight touchdowns to tight ends so far this year. Miller is not only a low priced value option this week, he is also one of the highest projected tight ends on this week's slate. Miller gets an elite tag this week and will be a mainstay in every one of my lineups.