NFL Week 10: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

In a week where early thought process is to load up at RB, Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be thrown into a starting situation against his former team, but that is not the reason to play him. His price tags across all three sites are dirt cheap. Now the Mike Evans news throws a wrench into things, but there is still an appeals process to go, which in my opinion should get him reinstated this week. New York ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass, and Fitzpatrick won't have to do much in terms of production to hit value, and this isn't particularly a strong passing week anyway.

Eli Manning and the Giants are well, not good. I get that, and neither is the 49ers defense. In fact this game is so ugly that fantasy production might actually come out of it. It is like adding two negatives, and you get a positive. Or this game is 15-to-9 and I am completely wrong. The 49ers are allowing a hefty amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and despite missing weapons, the Giants should be viable at their price tags.

Running Backs

28 targets over the last three weeks for Carlos Hyde those are very notable numbers for a running back, and especially one who gathers 12-15 rushing attempts even in games where they are down. Hyde is still too cheap on FanDuel, where he just managed 17 fantasy points without scoring a touchdown. New York ranks 24th in DVOA against the rush, and 22nd against pass-catching backs. After allowing over 50+ points to the Rams, I doubt those numbers are going up. Hyde is reasonably priced elsewhere, and is one of the few 49ers you can trust, although I like their wideouts this week.

Jerick McKinnon has some pricing discrepancies this week. The full priced PPR site of DraftKings has him appropriately priced, scoring over 20+ fantasy points in three of four weeks. He has done the same on FanDuel, yet still is below $7,000. On the road against Washington isn't an optimal spot, but ranking 11th in DVOA against the run, and 18th against pass-catching backs, but he will be overlooked.

Wide Receivers

Health has derailed the rookie season of Corey Davis but we should take note of him. Still super cheap across the industry, he is a GPP dart throw, against Cincinnati, who rank 27th in DVOA against deep routes. Davis fits that category, and is a boom-or-bust threat this week. At these price tags, you get enough out of the rest of the guys, and take a 5.4 fantasy point game from your WR3, you are not dead.

Josh McCown has gotten a little expensive, after being a value QB for a while now, but not anymore. Instead I will look to their wideouts, who are now without Jeremy Kerley for a few games. Guys like Jermaine Kearse, and red-hot Robby Anderson are now guys I have more interest in due to wanting exposure. Tampa Bay boasts one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Jets should already be considered in your lineup process given their performances this year.

Both Aldrick Robinson and Marquise Goodwin saw eight Week 9 targets, and combined for just four catches. Not appealing, but the volume is worth a look given the punt price tags. New York has also been dreadful against the pass, despite coming into this season really high on my pass defense rankings. A punt WR3 spot isn't a bad option this week, and these two are considerations.

Tight Ends

Chalk Hunter Henry was a big letdown against New England, and now his price tags have come back down. Henry is worth a look on a weak TE week, and he is at cheaper prices. Jacksonville gets a lot of passes funneled down to tight ends given their CB play this season. 7.1 attempts have gone to them this season.

Despite producing at a reasonable rate, Kyle Rudolph sits at these price tags where you can feel good about getting 7-8 targets per game and a decent 6-8 fantasy point floor, with room for more. If you don't want to pay up in the high tier one section this week, Washington ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends.

Defenses

A few cheaper defenses popped up on my radar early on this week, and Chicago is a notable one to start. They have been excellent at home this season, allowing 15.8 points per game, compared to 27 on the road. On a short week with Brett Hundley under center, this should be a low scoring affair, and Chicago's defense ranks 15th in DVOA against the run, and 10th against the pass. At cheaper prices they are worth a shot.

Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton may have put up numbers against Houston, but Pittsburgh's defense has played well and can overpower the Indy offensive line. Pittsburgh is pretty cheap still on FanDuel, but are priced up inside the top three of defenses this week. Indy has allowed 35 sacks this season, which is the most in the NFL, and allow the most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.