NFL Week 15: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

Case Keenum gets a Cincinnati defense that has lost some bodies over the last few weeks, and currently rank 19th in DVOA against the pass. Keenum is fairly priced on DraftKings and FanDuel this week, where he should be of service again at lower ownership. He has two touchdowns in each of the last three games, and has some rushing upside as well. He is a bit overpriced on Yahoo this week.

Things have quietly have turned around in San Francisco, as Jimmy Garoppolo continues to play well. His price has come up a bit, but he is in play for me against a Tennessee secondary that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Garoppolo has thrown 33 and 37 times in the first two games under center, totaling over 600 yards. At home this week, he should be worth a look.

Nick Foles will fill in for the unfortunate Carson Wentz injury going forward, and at bare minimum on FanDuel, I am willing to take some shots with Foles at home. New York ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass, and if Zach Ertz comes back, Foles will have a damn good arsenal of weapons to throw to. We have seen Foles play well before, which is why there is some hope that Philly can keep pace.

Running Backs

Because Kenyan Drake played on Monday night, the price tags will be cheap for at least another week. He is coming off strong two 20+ fantasy point weeks in a row and has seen 11 targets and 48 rushing attempts in those two games. Miami is set up this week against Buffalo, who are still bleeding fantasy points to running backs. Buffalo ranks 24th in DVOA against the run, and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

If you are trying to punt at running back this week, Adrian Peterson's injury has cleared way for Kerwynn Williams at near bare-minimum. Williams is getting a bulk of the carries, but there is one thing to note. He doesn't see a ton of passing targets, and short-yardage situations could also escape him. He has 36 rushing attempts over the last two games, totaling 160 yards. Over the last five weeks, Washington is bottom five in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.

Wide Receivers

Even with Robert Woods coming back this week, the Rams wide receivers are in play for me, and that includes Sammy Watkins. He is still fairly cheap for a guy scoring three straight touchdowns, and Seattle is allowing the second most fantasy points to wide receivers over the last three weeks. Injuries have taken a toll both secondaries this week, so a possible shootout can be considered.

With Aaron Rodgers looking likely to return this week, the Green Bay wide receivers are going to be more in play moving forward. It is a tough task on the road against Carolina, but they have been struggling in the passing game of late. Randall Cobb is cheap and while it has been a down year, he gets the same matchup as Adam Thielen did last week. Cobb isn't Thielen, but at these prices we should consider him as a WR3. \

Marquise Goodwin is coming up in price after back-to-back strong weeks with Jimmy G. under center. Goodwin has seen 20 targets with him under center, catching 14 of them for over 200 yards. Prices are up, but I am here to tell you that he is still in play.

Tight Ends

This is one of the more dreadful weeks at tight end, and is looking clearly like a pay up one with Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz in good spot. Vernon Davis is back on the map for me this week, getting an Arizona defense that is middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Davis is more of a DK or Y play this week at those prices, and after a few down weeks, he went back to seven targets last week. With Jordan Reed done for the year, Davis will see large snaps again for the rest of the season.

Defenses

New York will bring in Bryce Petty to go up against the Saints defense in the SuperDome this week, which is a tough task. The Saints defense has been excellent this season, and with Josh McCown done for the year, he was the glue holding that offense together. DraftKings and Yahoo have the Saints priced up this week, while they are a slightly better bargain on FanDuel. 39, 46. 18