NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Week 1 is finally here! With the Tampa Bay/Miami game being postponed to Week 11, we actually start off with a smaller slate of games than usual. There are plenty of high team totals, high expectations, and reasons for optimism as we kick off the 2017 season, so let's dive in and talk about some of the top stacks for Week 2 NFL action:
Top Stack 1
Packers @ Falcons - Team Total 25.75
|
Name |
Position |
FanDuel Salary |
DraftKings Salary |
Estimated Ownership % |
Projected Points |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | $9,100 | $7,400 | 10-15 | 21.74 (DK), 21.64 (FD) |
| Ty Montgomery | RB | $6,500 | $5,800 | 35-40 | 13.46 (DK), 11.76 (FD) |
| Jordy Nelson | WR | $8,100 | $7,900 | 15-20 | 17.73 (DK), 14.58 (FD) |
| Davante Adams | WR | $6,700 | $5,600 | 5-10 | 13.40 (DK), 11.00 (FD) |
Vegas expects this Packers/Falcons tilt to be one of the highest scoring games of the week, and many DFS players agree. This one has a massive total of 54.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate, and the Packers own an implied team total of nearly 26 points. The great news for this stack is that Rodgers and company love to throw the ball, as evidenced by the team throwing on 64.68% of offensive plays in 2016, second-highest in the league. Both Adams and Nelson ranked in the top 8 in snap counts among WR in Week 1, and teammate Ty Montgomery led all RB with 74 snaps in Week 1, which led to 23 total touches, including four targets, which he caught all of for 39 yards. Nelson found the end zone against a tough Seahawks secondary, and on the heels of a league-leading total in 2016, he seems primed for yet another big season. The Falcons ranked 22nd in 2016 in terms of DVOA against the pass, and although the Falcons steamrolled the Pack in the postseason last year, Rodgers still posted a solid 287/3 line. This game has massive upside, and a full stack here isn't out of the question. Don't forget about some exposure to Randall Cobb as well.
Top Stack 2
Falcons vs Packers - Team Total 28.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $8,200 | $7,500 | 10-15 | 20.03 (DK), 19.93 (FD) | |
Julio Jones | WR | $8,800 | $9,200 | 20-25 | 19.31 (DK), 16.06 (FD) |
Devonta Freeman | RB | $8,100 | $7,300 | 5-10 | 16.99 (DK), 15.14 (FD) |
Yep. You guessed it. My next favorite stack is the other side of this game, as this huge total could lead to a shootout. What Jones did to this Packer defense in the playoffs last season should be illegal. He hauled in nine passes for 180 yards and a pair of scores, and coming off a disappointing Week 1, he looks poised to break out against the Packers in Week 2. Matt Ryan figures to be a chalky option as well, perhaps even the highest owned QB, Regardless, the Ryan/Jones duo is one with quite possibly the highest ceiling on this slate, and one that I'll have plenty of exposure to. Freeman makes for a nice addition here, as his pass-catching ability adds to his upside as well. He only saw two targets last week, but that may just drive down his ownership even more. If this game is as high-scoring as we all expect, then I absolutely expect Freeman to surpass the 14 touches he saw last week. The Packers ranked 23rd against the pass in 2016, and this passing attack is as electric as they come. I'll be fading Austin Hooper in my stacks, as his lack of targets last week seems to be a trend, and it isn't likely that the Packers will forget to cover him on an 88-yard score the way that the Bears did last week. Honorable mention for this stack spot is both sides of the New England/New Orleans game, which should see plenty of fireworks as well.
Contrarian Stack
Raiders vs Jets - Team Total 28.25
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $8,300 | $7,200 | 5-10 | 18.82 (DK), 18.72 (FD) | |
Marshawn Lynch | RB | $7,200 | $6,000 | 5-10 | 14.32 (DK), 13.27 (FD) |
Amari Cooper | WR | $7,900 | $8,100 | 0-5 | 16.18 (DK), 13.28 (FD) |
Based on their Vegas total, this shouldn't be a contrarian option at all. However, the Raiders are a monster -14 favorite, which should lead to some lower ownerships among full stacks of this offense. The Jets are an absolute mess on both sides of the ball, and Oakland is coming off of an impressive opening win over a tough Titans team. Lynch himself has monster upside in a potential blowout, as he turned back the clock with 92 total yards on 19 touches in Week 1. Cooper also saw a ridiculous 13 targets in that contest, as Carr was looking to get his huge target involved early and often. Cooper ended with just a 5-62-1 line, but that volume of targets tells us once again that his ceiling and floor are both elite. Look for this offense to rack up points in a hurry in this one.
Value Stack
Chargers vs Dolphins - Team Total 24.25
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $7,000 | $5,800 | 5-10 | 18.30 (DK), 18.10 (FD) | |
Melvin Gordon | RB | $7,600 | $7,000 | 10-15 | 16.92 (DK), 15.22 (FD) |
Keenan Allen | WR | $7,100 | $5,800 | 15-20 | 14.28 (DK), 11.43 (FD) |
The (Los Angeles) Charger offense got off to a decent start last week when you factor in their tough matchup agains the Broncos. Allen and Gordon combined for 16 targets, and they each caught a touchdown pass. Rivers threw for just 192 yards, but found the end zone three times in a close loss. The Dolphins ranked 25th in DVOA against the pass last season, per Football Outsiders, and this is a very beatable defense. This trio of players can be rostered for just $18,600 on DraftKings this week, and own plenty of upside. Tyrell Williams is one more potential target to include in your stacks, and I'm all aboard this underrated offensive attack in Week 2.
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