NFL Week 3: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback play has been rather lackluster this season, as the lower names have been the ones thriving. The Bears are a team that have allowed 251 passing yards per game this season, and 23 points per game. Ben Roethlisberger's price tag has dropped significantly on DraftKings and FanDuel, but not Yahoo. Roethlisberger's play might not jump out at you, but his stats have been nearly identical for both weeks of the season. We have seen the drop in Le'Veon Bell's price as well, and many people will go back to the Bell train. Chicago is bottom five in opposing passer rating allowed, and were bottom ten in 2016. Throwing 35 and 36 times in both weeks has been appealing, and even on the road I am fine with using Roethlisberger.

I have yet to see what Matthew Stafford does on Monday Night Football, but I am not expecting much against this Giants defense that thrived against the pass last year. Stafford had a phenomenal Week 1, throwing 41 times, completing 71% of his passes, for 292 yards and four touchdowns. Detroit ranked third last year in passing play percentage (64.6%), and that style of offense will not change this year. The Falcons allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. Stafford being under $8,000 on FanDuel is a terrific bargain, even though it is $100 less than that mark. On DraftKings I do rank him over Roethlisberger at the same price. Yahoo, well like Roethlisberger, we are not getting the discount there. A Lions stack at early glance is enticing given this game should come out as one of the higher totals and opportunity for fantasy points.

This Browns-Colts game oddly is a featured one here in the Salary Exploitation. Not because these teams are good, but because the pricing is so low. One man's trash is another man's treasure, and that describes this game. DeShone Kizer has some flaws like any rookie will have. His game against Pittsburgh was impressive, completing 67% of his passes for 222 yards and a touchdown. He also added a rushing touchdown in that game, which is another threat he has. Kizer took a big step back against a Baltimore defense that is going to be one of the top rated defenses this season, and likely already are. He missed some of the game with a migraine, but that didn't stop him from turning the ball over four times. Kizer at these price tags should be worth a look, at the least. The Colts have allowed the third most passing yards through the first two weeks of 2017, behind New Orleans and New England. Unlike those two teams, they have allowed just two touchdowns through the air. This game looks ugly, but the potential for fantasy value is here.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook was rather unlucky in Week 2, getting down at the one after an overturned touchdown call, only to be vultured by their fullback. Cook only rushed the ball 12 times against Pittsburgh, but was efficient for 64 yards. We haven't seen much out of the passing game yet, but he has had eight targets through two weeks. The status of Sam Bradford puts a lot of instability on this Vikings offense, but game-flow should be better for Cook this week. He is a clear workhorse back, and his last week was really a floor for touches. At $6,500 on FanDuel, we have a really nice bargain. DraftKings ($5,900), definitely still in play. His Yahoo! price tag has come up a bit, where we still have some other guys in his range that could rival touches and have higher ceilings. Tampa Bay shut down the run game in Week 2, but that was expected with Chicago trailing from the get go. This week should be a little different, and while Tampa Bay is a top half defense, they allowed a casual 4.4 YPC last season, and a 117 rushing yards per game.

At this moment in time, we don't know if Rob Kelley will be available for Week 3. But early reports are broken ribs, so we can anticipate him being out. Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson saw the workload in Week 2 against the Rams. Perine dominate touches (22) to Thompson's (6), but Thompson dominated fantasy points with over 100 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. While Thompson's 61 yard long run helped, Washington gashed Los Angeles defense for 229 rushing yards. Both are similar prices this week across the industry, which are cheap. If Washington can keep pace in this game and even jump out to a lead, Perine could be a guy again to carry the workload. If Oakland jump out and put Washington is a pass-first approach, Thompson will see plenty of snaps as the pass-catching back. There is general risk with both of them, but this is a decent spot against an Oakland defense that was bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs last season.

Theo Riddick is going to continue to be a guy who sees 5-7 targets a week in a pass-first offense. I will avoid on FanDuel due to the non-PPR scoring, and the real no-need to go down to him here for his touches. DraftKings he makes for a better play. The same theme carried over to Week 2 against Green Bay, Montgomery was going to eat in the passing game. We have seen Cohen and Montgomery both do their damage against Atlanta through the air, given me no reason to keep away. Last year they allowed 109 receptions to backs, going for 870 yards and six touchdowns. Riddick is an interesting stacking partner with Stafford, as well as just a flex play.

We can also note that Le'Veon Bell is below $9,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings. He had 31 touches in Week 2, so it is safe to say the game plan is back for Bell in a favorable game-flow.

Wide Receivers

Back to this Colts-Browns game for a minute. Corey Coleman broke his hand in Week 2, and Cleveland found out Kenny Britt is useless and taking up payroll. Usually teams play their higher paid guys regardless, but Cleveland isn't going that route. Rashard Higgins played 76% of the snaps in Week 2, leading the Browns wide receivers. He finished with 11 targets, going seven for 95 yards. He is worth a look against this Colts secondary still missing Vontae Davis. On the other side of that one, T.Y. Hilton is plummeting in salary, and deservingly so. Hilton was bottled up by Patrick Peterson in Week 2, and was a product of the Scott Tolzein meltdown from Week 1. Jacoby Brissett gives me much more confidence in looking at the Colts weapons, who have two in play this week. Hilton is going to be a contrarian option given the overall look of the Colts offense. He was a top five fantasy scoring wide receiver last season, but of course that was mostly with Andrew Luck. Cleveland was torched Week 1 by Antonio Brown, and allowed two passing scores in a game where Baltimore ran the ball 32 times.

A.J. Green's price on FanDuel popped out at me this week, where it took the biggest hit from a team that hasn't scored a touchdown yet this year. Green Bay's secondary continues to be an area to target, and their offense will likely put Cincinnati in a spot where they need to throw. Green Bay ranked 28th against WR1s last season, and lack the elite corner type to be able to manage A.J. Green. Green has 18 targets over his first two weeks, but has only caught 10 of them.

Kendall Wright, Jermaine Kearse, and Jamison Crowder were a few other names that didn't make the cut but have been talked about in prior articles as cheap options. Keep an eye on the Green Bay WRs, as Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson both are hit with the questionable tag for Week 3.

Tight Ends

There is a lot adding up to playing Jack Doyle this week. Cleveland just allowed an 8-91-0 line to Benjamin Watson on eight targets, and allowed two Jesse James touchdowns in Week 1. The Browns allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season, and the most touchdowns caught by tight ends (13). Doyle caught all eight of his targets in Week 2, going to 79 yards. He saw just three targets in Week 1. His price tag is still down across all three sites, and he is going to be playable in all formats for me.

Eric Ebron was quiet in Week 1, and is someone I am keeping an eye on for tonight's game. He missed most of preseason with injuries, but was expected to take on a bigger role, especially in the red zone. If New York funnels targets to Ebron tonight, I will expect some of the same in Week 3. The Falcons allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. I do expect others to be on Doyle as well, so Ebron will make for a pivot at cheaper prices. Unless Ebron goes off tonight, then recency bias will take the ball there.

Defenses

The Carolina Panthers have scored 10 and 15 fantasy points through the first two weeks of the season, allowing just six total points. They have forced seven sacks, and continue to hold teams off the ball with their ground-and-pound style. Playing San Francisco and Buffalo helps, but this is a good defense. Carolina is an early GPP defense I am looking at this week, given the Saints offense has looked out of tune through the first two weeks. Willie Snead remains out of the lineup, serving his final week of the suspension, and clearly this is an offense that misses the speed of Brandin Cooks. At the moment, New Orleans are touchdown underdogs, and have an implied total just 1.5 points higher than Cleveland and Indy.

In terms of the high end options this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers is going to get a lot of the attention and deservingly so. Baltimore is in London, and there are not a ton of defenses I am in love with, despite it being a likely low week for scoring. They have played well through the first two weeks, as opponents also get a little credit here. Chicago is going to be a team to just load up on this year, and we saw the upside they can allow last week against the Bucs.