NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Week 2 saw the Packers post a solid total in a loss to the Falcons (although Jordy Nelson went down early with an injury, resulting in a nice goose egg). The Matt Ryan/Julio Jones combo didn't exactly light the world on fire as we anticipated, but adding Devonta Freeman into that mix gave you a nice final score for your stacks. The Raiders stack may have just paid off big time for you if you played Michael Crabtree over Amari Cooper, and the Chargers paid off nicely, although their score wasn't massive by and means. Let's move on to Week 3 and dive into some top stacks:
Top Stack 1
Raiders @ Redskins - Team Total 28.75
|
Name |
Position |
FanDuel Salary |
DraftKings Salary |
Estimated Ownership % |
Projected Points |
| Derek Carr | QB | $8,400 | $6,800 | 10-15 | 19.03 (DK), 18.93 (FD) |
| Marshawn Lynch | RB | $6,700 | $6,000 | 10-15 | 13.16 (DK), 12.16 (FD) |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | $7,700 | $7,400 | 15-20 | 16.40 (DK), 13.55 (FD) |
| Jared Cook | TE | $5,200 | $3,100 | 5-10 | 9.28 (DK), 7.48 (FD) |
The Silver and Black have the highest team total this week, tied with the Patriots at a monstrous 28.75. Coming off a week where we saw Carr and Crabtree hook up for a trio of scores, you can expect both of them to garner plenty of ownership. However, a full stack may be the way to go in this one, as you can incorporate Lynch and Cook into a full Raiders stack in this one. Amari Cooper makes for an elite pivot off Crabtree (although it seems likely that Cooper will see plenty of Josh Norman), who is likely to see a massive boost in ownership this week. The Redskins have allowed 344 YPG this season, which is the 7th-highest amount of any team in the league. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 20th against the pass thus far in 2017. This stack has plenty of appeal, and while you'll have to eat some chalk here, this stack owns plenty of GPP-winning upside.
Top Stack 2
Packers vs Bengals - Team Total 27.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $9,300 | $7,300 | 10-15 | 20.95 (DK), 10.85 (FD) | |
Ty Montgomery | WR | $7,200 | $6,900 | 20-25 | 16.53 (DK), 14.98 (FD) |
Davante Adams | RB | $6,800 | $5,600 | 5-10 | 13.35 (DK), 11.10 (FD) |
Have you ever loved someone (or something) unconditionally, only to have that person (or entity) continuously let you down and disappoint you? Welcome to my life as a Cincinnati Bengals fan. Although I have some strange feeling that the Orange and Black find a way to pull off a miracle upset here (they ARE the only NFL team that Rodgers has never beaten), that doesn't mean that the defense won't serve up a few points along the way. With Jordy Nelson (likely to play) and Randall Cobb (still questionable) both likely less than 100%, a stack with Adams in place of one or both of them would put you in a nice contrarian spot that will still give you exposure to this high total. Clearly my bias regarding the potential outcome could have clouded my vision, but I'm still all aboard the Pack Stack in GPPs.
Contrarian Stack
Chiefs @ Chargers - Team Total 25.25
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
Alex Smith | QB | $7,400 | $5,900 | 0-5 | 15.58 (DK), 15.48 (FD) |
Kareem Hunt | RB | $8,300 | $8,000 | 15-20 | 17.60 (DK), 15.90 (FD) |
WR | $7,300 | $6,600 | 0-5 | 15.65 (DK), 12.75 (FD) | |
| Travis Kelce | TE | $7,100 | $6,000 | 5-10 | 16.18 (DK), 13.48 (FD) |
Of course rookie phenom Kareem Hunt will see plenty of ownership this week, and for good reason. He has totaled a ridiculous 355 yards and four scores from scrimmage already this season, and now draws a Rams defense that FO ranks 20th against the run in this young season. On the flip side, FO ranks them 3rd against the pass, which could make things difficult on Alex Smith and company. Fortunately, Vegas is a fan of the Chiefs in this one, as their team total of just over 25 points is one of the highest on the slate. The Rams have faced the travesty that is the Colts offense and then a struggling Redskins offense so far this season, and I'm expecting the new-look, explosive Kansas City offense to put up big numbers at low ownership here. a full four-man stack may just be a little bit of overkill here, but a Hunt/Hill/Smith stack will gain you exposure to every touchdown this offense scores. With key cog Eric Berry lost for the season, we can also expect the Chiefs to serve up some points, which raises the floor and ceiling for each of these players.
Value Stack
Panthers vs Saints - Team Total 25.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $8,100 | $6,600 | 0.5 | 18.22 (DK), 18.03 (FD) | |
Kelvin Benjamin | WR | $6,600 | $6,700 | 5-10 | 13.30 (DK), 11.05 (FD) |
Ed Dickson | TE | $4,500 | $2,700 | 15-20 | 7.78 (DK), 6.43 (FD) |
While it looks like Cam Newton is still banged up, and Ed Dickson will be a very chalky TE play, this stack still may see very little ownership, despite a dream matchup against a Saints defense that is the worst in the NFL once again this season, as they have allowed over 500 YPG over their first two contests. The Panthers managed just 9 points against the Bills last week, but a matchup against the Saints generally cures whatever is ailing a struggling offense. Despite his early struggles, Benjamin has still hauled in seven of 13 targets on the season for 102 yards. He hasn't found the end zone yet, but my money is on him finding paydirt against this pathetic defensive unit this week.
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