NFL Week 4: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

It is an ugly week at quarterback for this Main Slate, and we have Tom Brady sitting up top as the most expensive quarterback. A guy you should probably pay up for given how they are operating on offense this season. Looking at some cheap guys, Tyrod Taylor stands out to me, especially on DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel he is cheap, but with more lenient pricing, I don't dive into the same strategy on every site. Taylor isn't someone who is going to throw 35-40 times a game, but he is going to be efficient with his passing attempts. He has a completed 67% of his passes. He also has 24 rushing attempts in three games, just simply carrying eight rushing attempts in each. Atlanta is a team that should jump out ahead, and force Buffalo to pick up the pace on offense. Taylor carries a pretty decent floor in this game, and can give you some upside if that rushing touchdown comes.

Philip Rivers was downright awful this week against Kansas City, turning the ball over three times. He failed to find the end zone, but is averaging 253 passing yards per game, and has four scores on the season. This Eagles offense well apart late, and were put in some bad spots, but this secondary is still something I don't mind attacking. Especially when they are on the road. As far as mid-range options go, Ben Roethlisberger is on the road against Baltimore, Matthew Stafford is on the road against Minnesota, and a few others are in less than ideal spots. Rivers carries some upside with the multi-touchdown potential, and is likely going to be throwing 35+ times here.

I will make note on FanDuel, where the SNF game is still included in the Main Slate, Russell Wilson is under $7,900. A home matchup against Indy can certainly get Wilson to produce for a second week in a row. The offensive line also looked a lot better than previous weeks. Keep an eye on Doug Baldwin's status, given he had the groin injury late in the game. Also note, Tom Brady is $33 this week on Yahoo. That is the fifth most expensive QB. This essentially makes the above three useless to me there.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette faced two top ten rush defenses, and Houston for the first three weeks. He has carried a heavy workload in all three, and has found the end zone in each as well. Fournette has averaged four passing targets per game, and has carried the ball 17, 14 and 26 times in the first three weeks. Jacksonville is playing stout defense, which usually creates a positive game script for running backs. While this Miami game left a sour taste in our mouths, I am trusting the process and going back to the well here. He is reasonably priced on FanDuel and DraftKings, I won't call it a bargain, because this is probably where he should be priced. Yahoo he is the third most expensive back, and really priced up.

Cincinnati finally went with their talented rookie running back, Joe Mixon, and almost stole a game in Green Bay. He touched the ball 21 times, 18 on the ground for 62 yards. He will face a lesser run defense, as Cleveland create plus opportunities for opposing running backs. DraftKings was quick to bump up his salary a little bit, where on FanDuel we get a tremendous value of $5,600. If we can get 80 yards and a touchdown out of him, we have an excellent bargain, and the opportunity to pay up at other spots. I will go into more about Mixon in the Week 4 Target & Touches Report.

After having a huge workload in back-to-back weeks, Denver went a little bit heavier with Jamaal Charles. C.J. Anderson is still someone to keep an eye on, especially on DraftKings at $5,600. That is a really nice price for someone with this workload. Using him as an RB or FLEX play is the spot to go if you want exposure against this leaky Oakland run defense. Buffalo was a tough road matchup, but this is a better spot heading back home. Anderson has always been a better player at home. Since coming into the league, he has averaged 14.5 PPR points per game, compared to 10.4 PPR points on the road.

Wide Receivers

Marqise Lee is very well a FanDuel and DraftKings GPP dart, alongside Allen Hurns who has taken advantage of the Allen Robinson injury. Lee on Yahoo is overpriced, with so many better names in better spots around him. The Jets are still a team to fire up against, and that even means some potential wide receivers. We have seen some success come against them, including DeVante Parker and Michael Crabtree over the last two weeks. You will likely find Lee and Hurns lower owned, as many will just ride the Fournette train to victory this week.

At this point I don't really care who is under center for Minnesota. Adam Thielen continues to shine, even with Case Keenum. He has had 10, 6, 8 targets over three weeks, scoring double digit FanDuel points in all but the Pittsburgh game. Thielen will dodge the Darius Slay coverage, which means Stefon Diggs will likely deal with that. At his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings, and the PPR scoring, it continues to make sense to pencil him into your possible options.

Emmanuel Sanders price is creeping up, but not high enough to the point where I am dodging him. He has seen 6, 8, and 15 targets over the last three weeks, and has multi-touchdown upside. Oakland was a bottom ten pass defense last season, and are bottom ten so far this season. This Denver offense might be one to target this week, given the home matchup. If we get another big week out of Sanders, he might be reaching a territory where we think a little different about plugging him in.

Other notes from around the site. Brandin Cooks $22 on Yahoo, Jordan Matthews $3,900 on DK, and Martavis Bryant just $6,100 on FanDuel.

Tight Ends

It is pretty established that Charles Clay is going to be someone to look at in this offense. He has seen 18 targets in the first three weeks, and has caught two touchdowns. The price tag has crept up a little bit, but not enough to where we say that we aren't paying that much for Clay. Atlanta struggled with tight ends last season, and have shown spots of weakness still, although have been lucky to not give up more. Buffalo will likely be in a place where they need to throw, which means Clay should see another 6-7 target game.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins saw six targets in Week 3, returning from his two game suspension. That was tied for the most on this Jets team, with Robby Anderson. This isn't an ideal spot for anyone on the Jets, taking on what I believe to be one of the up and coming premier defenses. ASJ is essentially a bare minimum play this week, as tight ends dry up a little bit on the cheaper side. We know the talent is there, but off the field issues have kept him from being someone to touch on in fantasy.

Defenses

While these are not cheap defenses, they are in the mid-range and slightly cheaper than some of the more expensive options. Cincinnati get Cleveland on the road, who have looked awful the last few weeks. Their wide receiver core is in shambles after the loss of Corey Coleman, and this Cincinnati secondary is above average. The Bengals are also coming off of a six sack game against a battered Green Bay line. Cleveland are bottom ten in sacks allowed through three weeks.

Arizona is a team I believe took a step backwards defensively coming into this season, but there are still a ton of reasons to like Arizona in this spot. San Francisco has Carlos Hyde, and that is about it. Expect Patrick Peterson to take Pierre Garcon out of the game, which leaves Marquise Goodwin left. The Cardinals were a team that played better at home, which is normal for defenses. The 49ers have one of the lowest Week 4 totals on the board. One of the reasons I mention Arizona is that you are not shelling out premium dollars for a defense.