NFL Week 5: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott came out and had another impressive week against the Rams. In what turned out to be a shootout, Prescott tossed three touchdowns and 252 yards. He has nine total touchdowns this season, one of them coming on the ground. He has also been around 2.3 rushing fantasy points per game, which is just a little addition to what has been a friendly floor. He managed to put up 17 fantasy points on the road at Denver and against New York. On DraftKings, he is the third most expensive quarterback, and maybe deservingly so on this week. FanDuel, he is the sixth most expensive, and below $8,000. Last year at Lambeau, Prescott tossed three touchdowns and 247 passing yards. In their playoff rematch, he tossed 302 yards and three touchdowns. Green Bay's secondary continues to be an area of weakness, and Prescott is a cheaper option in what should be a game with plenty of fantasy points.

After a beatdown in Seattle, Indianapolis will head back home to a slightly easier matchup against San Francisco. They rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, and head on the road which usually results in a drop-off in defensive play. Jacoby Brissett went off in his last home game against Cleveland. San Francisco is allowing 24 points per game, and 240 passing yards per game this season. Brissett is an interesting cheap option, who brings plenty of upside with his legs. He had the two touchdown week against Cleveland on the ground, and rushed for 33 yards against Seattle. This Colts offense will be usable in the right matchups without Andrew Luck, who might be back soon. While you have Brian Hoyer on the other end in this one, and Jay Cutler in a good spot, yet neither are trustworthy options. That word can be thrown around for a lot of quarterbacks this season, and especially here in the bottom tier of Week 5.

Running Backs

The Eagles running game was one to look at last week against the Chargers, who continue to be gashed on the ground. Wendall Smallwood found the end zone, alongside 79 total yards. He had four catches on six targets, which is notable for DraftKings scoring. Smallwood hardly moved in salary this week, and will take on what used to be a good Arizona defense. They also have struggled away from home over the last few years, and west coast teams traveling east is always a spot to take advantage. LeGarrette Blount had 156 total yards, with a majority of it coming on the 68-yard run. Him and Smallwood both will have pretty split touches, hovering in the 15-20 range depending on game-script.

DeMarco Murray was someone who was consistently over $8,000 it seemed last year, and has dropped this season quite a bit. Why? Well he has yet to go over 15 rushing attempts in a game, as Derrick Henry steals some, but also somewhat more of a focus on the passing game. I would not be surprised to see Tennessee get back to their roots this week. Murray has been successful with the touches he has received, averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season. He has also caught six of his eight targets, but for only 28 total receiving yards. If Marcus Mariota is out this week, I will give a big bump to Murray, and even Henry. Murray is worth a look at the FLEX or RB2 spot at the moment, especially with the discount price tags.

Given it is only Monday, we have an assortment of injuries that will be updated throughout the week. At the moment, Ty Montgomery, Carlos Hyde, and Matt Forte have the questionable tags with cheap backups in the waiting. Bilal Powell put up a monster game against Jacksonville, and gets a road matchup against Cleveland. His price changed slightly, and not enough to really think about others around him. Aaron Jones would fill-in for Montgomery, but it seems he is the likely one to play out of this group. Matt Breida saw nine attempts and three targets in the Week 4 loss, who gets a strong matchup against Indy if he can see 15+ touches.

Wide Receivers

I would be shocked if Davante Adams played this week, but regardless, Randall Cobb is someone I am looking at. DraftKings did a tremendous job at pricing up wide receivers this week, as you can tell by the DeVante Parker price tag as well. Both are extremely better values over on FanDuel and Yahoo this week, but Cobb is okay on DraftKings with the PPR scoring. Cobb missed Week 3, but has been a double-digit fantasy point scorer in all three games this season. Without Adams, Cobb and Jordy Nelson should see a bulk of the opportunities in the passing game, and maybe some Martellus Bennett.

Tennessee continues to get decimated through the air, and we saw it once again with Houston in Week 4. Unfortunately Miami is rolling off of two horrific offensive performances in positive matchups. This will now be the third week in the row. Parker has seen 4, 8, 6 targets this season, and is averaging 76.7 yards per game. Parker continues to be the big playmaker in the Dolphins offense. Parker is 20th in aDOT (15.4) among active wide receivers. Parker, like Cobb, is playable on DraftKings but FanDuel and Yahoo are where we are looking.

Okay, I know. Nelson Agholor isn't a sexy option in our game, outside of that solid Week 1 where nobody was on him. Agholor has only seen 3, 3, and 4 targets since that first week against Washington. WR2s against Arizona are somewhere to look this week, and moving forward. They are allowing seven passing targets per game to WR2s and 7.3 to WR2s. If you are wondering why, it is because Patrick Peterson is hardly targeted and locks in on WR1s. Zach Ertz is still going to get his targets, but Agholor may see a shift upwards this week.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram has seen 11, 7, and 7 targets over the last three weeks, and has locked himself into this offense. In fact, he has as many targets as Rob Gronkwoski this season. He is tied for third in receptions, and is still cheap across the board. The Chargers rank 31st in DVOA against TEs this season, and allowed 5 for 81 last week to Ertz. Tight end is extremely weak, and I will be looking to get some savings.

Cleveland has been god awful against tight ends this season, just slightly worse than the Giants. I talked about Austin Seferian-Jenkins last week, who finished with 46 yards on four receptions. Cleveland has allowed a combined 31-286-4 line to tight ends this season. Tyler Kroft and Jesse James were two tight ends who caught multiple touchdowns against the Browns this season. Benjamin Watson also had eight catches for 91 yards. Overall it hasn't been an impressive group against Cleveland.

Defenses

Baltimore is averaging 159 passing yards per game, and are struggling to get much going on offense, averaging 15 points per game. They head on the road to Oakland, which isn't a good place to play heading back from England the week before and struggling at home last week against Pittsburgh. Baltimore is in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Oakland is a decent punt defense at first glance this week.

Philadelphia has really struggled over the last three weeks, allowing over 700 yards over the last two weeks through the air. The secondary is a continuous issue, but they get an Arizona passing attack that lacks any real firepower with Carson Palmer under center. The Cardinals are averaging less points per game than the Jets through four weeks, and are allowing the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The Eagles aren't badly priced, and defenses this week are fairly lackluster.