NFL Week 8: Salary Exploitation

NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz is in a great spot this week, as another NFC East quarterback will look to thrive against a bottom five San Francisco secondary. DraftKings and Yahoo priced Wentz up quite a bit as he sits QB3 or higher on both. He is priced QB7 on FanDuel this week, which is way too low. The fact you can pair him and Alshon Jeffery together for $14,200 is an easy decision when making lineups this week. Also adding in $6,100 for LeGarrette Blount in a full stack is just $20,300. That is 33% of your salary.

Indianapolis just lost Malik Hooker for the season, who has been excellent for Indy this season. They already had a subpar pass defense, but things could actually get worse. Andy Dalton is on the cheaper side this week, with much of the Cincinnati offense, outside of A.J. Green. Dalton has had a pretty brutal schedule to start the season, but has done well in spots where you would expect him to. Dalton makes sense as a below $6,000 quarterback on DraftKings if you are going that route. $27 on FanDuel isn't bad either.

Philip Rivers, C.J. Beathard, and Josh McCown still haven't moved much on all three sites, so they pop up on my radar as fas as mis-priced guys this week.

Running Backs

DraftKings went about their business and priced up Mark Ingram to RB4 this week, while he is RB6 on FanDuel, and RB10 on Yahoo. Ingram has 47 rushing attempts and ten targets since Adrian Peterson has left town. FanDuel he makes a ton of sense as your RB2 if you have a desire to pay up at both spots, otherwise this is a position of value again. Alvin Kamara at $5,900 on DraftKings is where you can make a hedge. Kamara has seen 19 rushing attempts and ten targets since Peterson left. Ingram is still way too cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo.

Free Joe Mixon this week? Please, for the love of everything that is fantasy football. His touches have been 21, 21, 15, and then down to just 10 last week against the Steelers. Indy's rush defense hasn't been bad this season, but they are providing a lot of fantasy points to opposing backs based on game script. They were also gashed by Tennessee which inflated their stats. Mixon is dirt cheap this week if you want to roll the dice.

The Philadelphia onslaught is going to be popular this week, and why wouldn't they at these prices. LeGarrette Blount is cheap on all three sites this week and has seen 16, 14, and 14, rushing attempts over the last three games. Blount is rushing for 5.6 YPC this season and should see some positive red zone usage this week against San Francisco.

Wide Receivers

I talked above about Alshon Jeffery who is really cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo this week. DraftKings has the Eagles priced up to where they should be. Not that I don't like them there this week, it is just the points per dollar return is far greater on FanDuel and Yahoo. This is a prime spot for Jeffery, who has had four brutal matchups in a row against top ten cornerbacks.

DeSean Jackson has not seen less than six targets in a game this season, and leads the league in average depth of target (20.6). Teams are clearly looking at Mike Evans to try and take away, which has forced the tight ends and Jackson to pick up more of the slack. Jackson is still cheap and a game where he puts together 100+ yards and a touchdown is coming.

8+ targets in each of the last five weeks for Devin Funchess has him on my radar for a matchup against Tampa Bay, who has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Funchess is at a reasonable salary on all three sits, and look for Carolina to rebound after a dreadful performance against Chicago.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry time seems to be here finally, who has seen 20 targets over the last three weeks. He gets a decent matchup against the Patriots, and he should be in a positive game script keeping pace with this New England offense. The Patriots are allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Henry should be a trusted fantasy tight end moving forward if he isn't already.

I get that this Colts offense isn't fantasy friendly, but I do believe we can look at a cheap Jack Doyle this week. Doyle has seen 7, 11, and 7 targets over the last three weeks, and Cincinnati ranks 22nd in DVOA against tight ends. While you may not like the Colts offense, I am willing to look to Doyle if in need of some extra cash.

Defenses

On FanDuel and Yahoo, Pittsburgh is in the Main Slates against a Detroit team that is missing Golden Tate. I worry about the weapons available for Matthew Stafford, especially going up against one of the top pass defenses right now. The Steelers defense have allowed less than 20 points to opposing offenses only this season in all but one game. They come in moderately priced this week.

Even in a down game for Buffalo allowing 27 points, they still managed seven fantasy points. This marks the first time they have been below eight fantasy points this season. Oakland travels to Buffalo this week, which is a tough place to play coming from the west coast. We have seen a lot of wonky games for teams coming here. Buffalo is a GPP defense for me given Oakland's offense can still cause problems for anyone.