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NFL Salary Exploitation is a weekly piece based around finding the best and most egregious value-based plays from site-to-site. We'll be taking a look at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo!, deciphering where to look for the best values on a position-by-position basis. Some weeks will be more cash game plays and other will be more tournament based, it's simply how the sites adjust to injuries, news and other related materials that can shift snaps, match-ups and other research reliant variables.

Quarterbacks

PlayerOpponentDraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryYahoo! Salary
Jameis Winston@NO$5,800$7,700$29
Derek Carr@MIA- $7,800$30

The first note that needs to be made is the price of Deshaun Watson. After being underpriced for quite some time, he now enters as QB1 this week in pricing on all three sites. As he should be in a home matchup against Indy. Watson and the rest of the Houston Texans have been priced up to their own range this week, making them easier to fade if you want to be contrarian.

First, Jameis Winston needs to show that he is healthy enough to play this week, and play at the rate we know he can. The Saints secondary has been better than expected this season, but this game has the weapons to potentially turn into a shootout. If Winston sits, even more of a reason to play New Orleans defense, and it downgrades the wide receivers and tight end. Alex Smith, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan are three other intriguing mid-range options that standout as the bottom barrel quarterbacks have dried up rather quickly.

The Dolphins-Raiders game is only on FanDuel & Yahoo this week, which actually is a game I find some early value on. Derek Carr is priced as QB8 on FanDuel this week, and his stacking options are rather cheap as well. Amari Cooper is $6,900 on FanDuel, and Michael Crabtree is just $7,100. If you want a more contrarian move, Jared Cook is $5,500. Miami ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass, and Oakland is desperate for a win to get back on track.

Running Backs

PlayerOpponentDraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryYahoo! Salary
Devonta Freeman@CAR$6,600$7,100$28
Adrian PetersonSF$5,600$6,800$24

No LeSean McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, or Melvin Gordon this week due to byes or the Thursday game, but we are still loaded at running back. I am sure we will dance through another possible Ezekiel Elliot suspension, but the backs of Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, and Leonard Fournette have been just as good. We saw a big price jump for Mark Ingram finally, and Lamar Miller took a bump in price, which seemed to be universal for the Texans.

Devonta Freeman took a knock at the end of the Jets game, but is expected to be fine for Week 9. If not, Tevin Coleman offers up some upside at a discount price. Freeman is fairly cheap for someone who can put up 20+ fantasy points, coming in at these price tags this week. Carolina is a stout run defense, so I get the pricing being down because of that, but he is an early look for a GPP play.

Arizona was dreadful in London, and are coming off a Bye Week where they will need to play Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Cardinals get a 49ers team that was already bad, and injuries have made them worse. They have allowed eight total touchdowns in the last five weeks, and 25th in DVOA against the rush. Adrian Peterson's price is at least worth a look this week in what should be a positive game-script.

Wide Receivers

PlayerOpponentDraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryYahoo! Salary
Jeremy Maclin@TEN$4,000$6,300$15
T.Y. Hilton@HOU$4,900$6,600$20
Demaryius Thomas@PHI$6,000$6,700$21

Jeremy Maclin isn't much of a play for me on FanDuel this week with some other options within a few hundred dollars, but on Yahoo and DraftKings he makes for a decent WR3. Baltimore's passing game isn't one to target, but Maclin's yardage upside isn't the best, but he can manage 12-16 DK points which is would be decent at his price tag. You can also look at the Seattle wideouts again this week, as Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson still are cheap.

If you are playing the Houston stack, both T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are cheap game theory plays who should get 8+ targets this week, even if it isn't the most ideal spot. Both are extremely cheap correlation plays if Indy can manage some garbage time touchdowns.

The Eagles secondary has limited damage over the last few weeks, but are bottom half in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season, and Demaryius Thomas with a healthy Emmanuel Sanders are potential options this week in the mid-range, and should come in for lower ownership.

Tight Ends

PlayerOpponentDraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryYahoo! Salary
Vernon Davis@SEA$4,100$5,400$15
Tyler Kroft@JAX$3,900$5,500$16

Jordan Reed is on the doubtful side for Week 9, which makes sense given he was somewhat chalky in Week 8 and managed to leave the game early. Niles Paul also was out, leaving Vernon Davis as the lone tight end this week, and he as been featured in the offense even with healthy bodies in front of him. He isn't quite a steal at these prices, but is on the cheaper side.

Tyler Kroft will go overlooked this week, as Cincinnati takes on a tough Jacksonville defense. We could see Kroft pickup a few extra targets this week, and the Jaguars have allowed the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Defenses

PlayerOpponentDraftKings SalaryFanDuel SalaryYahoo! Salary
Baltimore Ravens@TEN$2,900$4,700$17
Los Angeles Rams@NYG$3,100$4,800$18

I will say that I am disappointed we didn't get Tennessee at a value this week given they have been up and down defensively, but I will look at Baltimore who have some time to get healthy and rested. Tennessee has allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and they have looked like a mess on the offensive side more times than not. Baltimore is a top five scoring defense this season, yet are not priced as it.

Los Angeles could provide a low owned pivot away from some of the more expensive popular defenses this week, and the Giants have managed to give us let downs for streaming against them. I still don't mind attacking this Giants team, and the Rams defense have scored the 4th most fantays points per game this season.



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