NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are looking ahead at week 3 to find the elite matchups for wide receivers against corners. Using Pro Football Focus's ratings as a base, we are able to get an advanced look at what matchups we can take advantage of. Defense against opposing WR's is grabbed from FootballOutsiders. They matchups are broken down into the top tier matchups, middle tier matchups, and matchups to fade. Now the opposing cornerback may not always be on the highlighted receiver, but this is a look at who the highlighted receiver will likely see most of the game. Not every number one cornerback covers the opposing team's wide receiver. They usually stay on their side of the field, and on occasion can shadow a number one. I will continue to edit it during the week, if there is given news of a switch in matchups. Blown coverage equals great matchups, zone coverages suggest they are toss-ups, and lockdown coverage is pretty self explanatory.
Note: For those playing the Monday night slates can fire away with all receivers.
|Kelvin Benjamin||B||$7,200||$7,800||Trae Waynes||F||A-|
|Randall Cobb||C||$7,300||$7,100||Quandre Diggs||F||B|
|Jarvis Landry||C+||$6,600||$7,000||Tramon Williams||F||B|
|Stefon Diggs||A-||$5,100||$6,400||James Bradberry||C-||A|
|Amari Cooper||C||$7,700||$7,700||Jason McCourty||F||B+|
|Antonio Brown||A||$9,600||$9,500||Nolan Carroll||F-||A+|
|Mike Evans||C+||$7,000||$8,000||Coty Sensabaugh||F||B+|
Kelvin Benjamin - Kelvin Benjamin has shown no setback from the injury so far in 2016, with three receiving touchdowns already on the season. He has the third highest receiving grade, per PFF. I like the Minnesota defense quite a bit, but the one-on-one matchup bodes well for Benjamin. He is a mismatch for most corners at 6'5, and has five inches on Trae Waynes. Minnesota ranks 14th against WR1's this season, per Football Outsiders.
Randall Cobb - With Jordy Nelson in a tough individual matchup with Darius Slay, I might be looking to pivot towards Randall Cobb. Green Bay has the highest total on the main slate (Non-MNF). Cobb is fairly cheap in consideration to the 10 wideouts above him. He has caught 12-of-18 targets from Rodgers this season, and has the advantage against slot corner Quandre Diggs.
Jarvis Landry - I am keeping a close eye on this situation as Joe Haden will cover one of the two wideouts in Miami I want to deploy. Haden looks to be drawing DeVante Parker at the moment, which would mean that Landry has Tramon Williams. Cleveland ranks 24th against opposing WR1, and Landry is seeing his usual amount of targets (23). Even on a .5 reception site like FanDuel, Landry is in play. Update: Joe Haden is Questionable.
Stefon Diggs - You are likely going to see ownership skyrocket for Stefon Diggs this week, because his prices did not. He has seen 21 targets this season, catching 16. This Carolina secondary actually ranked in the bottom five coming in per PFF. At the moment, Diggs has the highest PFF grade of any receiver, and takes on James Bradberry.
Amari Cooper - I love some Amari Cooper this week, going up against a Tennessee secondary that is simply not a good one. All three of their corners are below average in PFF grading, and rank 27th against opposing WR1, allowing 110.5 yards per game so far this season. Cooper will draw a friendly matchup with Jason McCourty.
Antonio Brown - The best wide receiver in the game versus Nolan Carroll. You know what to do.
Mike Evans - Mike Evans is certainly an excellent GPP play this week, and has been pelted with targets so far this season (24). Only catching 11 of them isn't efficient, but the volume is there. Trumaine Johnson is the bigger corner, but Coty Sensabaugh looks to be who he is matched up with. Evans has the advantage on both if he sees the time on Johnson.
|Larry Fitzgerald||B+||$6,900||$7,600||Nickell Robey||C||B|
|Alshon Jeffery||C+||$8,000||$7,900||Brandon Carr||C+||C+|
|Dez Bryant||C||$8,400||$7,900||Tracy Porter||D+||C+|
|T.Y. Hilton||C||$6,800||$7,400||Brandon Flowers||B-||C|
|Allen Robinson||F||$7,500||$7,900||Jimmy Smith||C-||C|
|Tajae Sharpe||C-||$4,700||$5,800||Sean Smith||F||C|
Larry Fitzgerald - We saw this last year with Larry Fitzgerald where touchdowns came in bunches, and he already has four. Drawing slot-corner Nickell Robey gives him a slight advantage. We saw the Jets receiving core torch this secondary on Thursday night football. Fitz isn't a cash game play for me, but GPP's he is a low-owned swerve off of others in the price range. PFF currently has him as the second highest graded wideout.
Alshon Jeffery - Both Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Carr have been fairly average so far this season, but the difference between the two is that we know Jeffery's ceiling. With Brian Hoyer under center, this actually might improve Jeffery. The price tag isn't great, but the ownership will be lower than last week's.
Dez Bryant - Staying in this same game, Dez Bryant will draw an easier matchup than last week against Tracy Porter. The targets doubled in week 2 with 12, as he caught six of them in a tougher matchup than week 1. If he has another double-digit target game against Porter, there is certainly some upside.
T.Y. Hilton - This is going to be a collective effort by the San Diego secondary, who actually is not that bad. Hilton will see some Brandon Flowers in the slot, and will likely see some Jason Verrett as well. Hilton has the most targets among wideouts this season, but draws a tough individual matchup. I still believe he can pay off his price tag, and there are worse matchups to fade. Him and Dorsett bring some caution, but overall it will be about moving them around.
Allen Robinson - Allen Robinson has a receiving grade around Greg Salas and Devin Funchess. Yeah, that is not good. He had tough matchups with Sam Shields and Jason Verrett, but now will draw an easier corner in Jimmy Smith. The Baltimore corner ranks 42nd in coverage grades, and was a guy we picked on last year. If Robinson was graded higher he would be in the blown coverage.
Tajae Sharpe - Sean Smith has been abysmal in Oakland, and right now it is a concern. We have seen Smith very solid at times, but at the moment, not so much. Oakland is allowing 133 yards per game to opposing WR1, and rank 31st against them. This might be a hinge week for the Oakland defense, as I can see both sides of the coin happening. Sharpe is certainly in play based on what we have seen in 2016, but if 2015 Smith shows up, it will be a bit tougher.
|Sammy Watkins||C||$6,100||$6,900||Patrick Peterson||B||D|
|A.J. Green||B-||$8,100||$8,300||Aqib Talib||C+||C-|
|Jordy Nelson||C||$7,400||$8,300||Darius Slay||B-||C-|
|Phillip Dorsett||C||$4,400||$6,000||Jason Verrett||C+||D+|
|DeVante Parker||C+||$4,900||$6,200||Joe Haden||B||C-|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||C||$9,100||$8,900||Josh Norman||A-||D|
Sammy Watkins - Sammy Watkins did not practice Thursday, and is already hobbled as it is. Now toss in Patrick Peterson on him, and you will get an instant fade for me. You can do the same, or believe I just jinxed the situation. Peterson is usually a corner I stay away from, ranking inside the top ten.
A.J. Green - Aqib Talib can certainly make some mistakes on defense, but overall this is a downgrade for A.J. Green against this secondary. I will be going to the Robinson, Cooper, Cobb range or paying up for Brown. Denver is holding opposing WR1 to just 66 yards per game this season.
Jordy Nelson - Probably the only part of the defense I look at for Detroit is Darius Slay, who ranks 13th, per PFF. He will see Jordy Nelson, which is a bit of a stalemate for both. I am not ruling out Nelson, but know the floor is a bit lower in this matchup.
Phillip Dorsett - See Hilton above.
DeVante Parker - As mentioned above with Landry, if Parker sees Joe Haden, it is a tougher matchup for him than any of the other receivers in Miami. I still like Parker quite a bit regardless of who he goes up against, because we have seen Haden look very average before. For the price, it helps a bit more as well. Update: Joe Haden is Questionable.
Odell Beckham Jr. - Josh Norman vs. OBJ Round 2. The ceiling is certainly lowered here this week, and I will be avoiding OBJ for the most part. Maybe one lineup to be super contrarian. Norman is the highest graded corner to start 2016, but Washington's overall defense hasn't been good against the pass. There is a chance that continues this week, but I think you are looking at the secondary options more here.