Treading The Lines: NFL Week 4

Last week was filled with cheap options across the board, which allowed you to basically pick any studs. This week is a bit different, with not near as many cheap chalky plays, but quite a few road favorites which certainly spices the pot. Many of these small road favorites are often viewed as trap lines to bettors due to the small road favorite team are typically much better teams on paper then their road opponents. Home/Road games are an even bigger factor than most think and Vegas knows it. Just look at most players splits in the NFL. The majority have far better home numbers than road. Multiply this by the 11 guys on offense and defense, and you'll quickly see how teams perform better in their own house. Overall, you'll notice I don't like going out of my way to target road players, but this week it seems borderline necessary to own a few even in cash games. Evaluating Vegas lines should always be one of your first stops before roster construction and I'll break down each game with line movement below. Also, please feel free to view the line movement each day at the following link: DFC NFL Vegas Line Movement

Cleveland @ Washington -7.5 O/U 46.5

Not that this is a surprise to anyone, but the Browns have become the early team to target weekly in DFS. Team Defense, QBs, WR, RBs, and even TEs have been in play each week against the Browns. The total for this game has seen the line move only a full point with the spread seeing a full point movement towards the Redskins. The thing that worries me here is I don't think the Redskins are a TD better better than any team in the NFL, but Vegas has to inflate these Browns lines to get equal money from both sides. I like points to be scored in this one, and on the Browns side Terrell Pryor is quite a speculative play. He is priced so cheap on DK, while FD has certainly given his price a bump, but regardless he will see good ownership on both sites. As for the Redskins, every starter is in play. I don't feel right stacking the Redskins here, but you should certainly mix and match players from here in GPPs for exposure as big games could be looming for someone. Kirk Cousins is the safest bet in this game though, as the Redskins love to air it out.

Kirk Cousins QB - FD Price $7,600 - DK Price $6,500

Buffalo @ New England -6.5 O/U 43.5

This line took some time to pop up around Vegas, but opened at 6.5 when it appeared that Garoppolo would play. The total has seen basically no line movement, since open though. NE appears to be a well oiled machine, with Brady and without him, proving Belichick and staff's worth to that franchise. Buffalo coming into town shouldn't stop them from being undefeated, but I want nothing to do with Buffalo players in this game. Since the NE offense is also a bit of a toss-up these days, I don't exactly love anyone on their team either. Blount is worth a GPP shot on DK, but is just not a fun running back to own in DFS because of his 0 involvement in the passing game. I actually like the NE defense in this spot. I think many people will be flocking to the Redskins defense on FD and HOU Defense on DK, and NE has similar opposing team totals and has looked great to start the year. Priced lower than the two on FD and right in between Washington and Houston on DK, I like the Pats as a contrarian defense play.

New England Defense - FD Price $4,500 - DK Price $3,300

Seattle -2.5 @ NY Jets O/U 40

This game has seen next to no line movement over the course of the week thus far. Overall, this is a very ugly game to target for DFS purposes. You have Seattle traveling east and the Jets who have been struggling. Even if you vision the Jets bouncing back in this spot after an awful performance last week, it's not like they will pile on numbers against Seattle here. I like the Jets to stay competitive and win straight up here, but this just has the making of a 7-10 type of game, so I'll be avoiding. I don't want to overpay for Seattle's defense on the road, and the Jets defense is not easy to trust especially with many low cost defenses that could be rolled out this week.

Carolina -3 @ Atlanta PK O/U 50

A good ole division rivalry game with two good offenses in this one. The line on this game has seen next to no line movement, but is still projected as one of the highest totals on the slate. You have a perfect scenario here of the Panthers who looked awful last week going against the Falcons who looked so good on Monday night. This is a spot where I love to target Panther players. Cam Newton looked awful against Minnesota but still went for about 2x value on both sites. Cam's road splits aren't as good as home splits, and I rarely roaster a road QB in NFL DFS, but this is a great spot for him. However, in this game the player to target is Greg Olsen. He sees a ton of work, and couldn't ask for a better match-up here. The Panthers will need to score here to keep pace with the Falcons on the road, so expect Cam to get his play-makers involved. On Atlanta's side with the RB committee, it's tough to trust anything on the ground against the Panthers. Julio is still priced very high, and the Panthers aren't exactly a cupcake match-up either. I will stick with Greg Olsen in this spot even with his pricey tag to come through for value.

Greg Olsen TE - FD Price $7,900 - DK Price $6,000

Detroit -3 @ Chicago O/U 47.5

We have another game that has a solid chance at fantasy goodness here. This total has moved up two points at some places since open, but the 3 point spread has remained in tact in favor of the Lions. There are various plays in this game, but I'll cut to the chase here. Jordan Howard may be the highest owned cash game player on the slate. His price is crazy low, and he will be the bell cow for the Bears. This is not a plus match-up for him, but the price is way to low for the projected opportunity. I do expect Stafford to see 10+% ownership and people to wrongly jump on the Marvin Jones train even though his price is above comfort. Zach Miller is worth a look as well, seeing how well he performed last week with little to no price rise.

Jordan Howard RB - FD Price $4,800 - DK Price $3,000

Tennessee @ Houston -4.5 O/U 40.5

Wow have the Titans under-performed expectation this year. Not to say they were supposed to be a powerhouse, but they have looked awful to start the year. This entire line has seen next to no line movement throughout the week even with JJ Watt's injury news coming after open. I cannot target anyone on the Titans here, and Houston surprisingly has quite a few mouths to feed offensively this year. The only play I feel comfortable with here is Houston's defense. Lamar Miller is not priced ideally and the Titans haven't been bad against the run. Hopkins and Fuller aren't priced cheap either, so I'll stick with the Houston defense which figure to be a popular play this week.

Houston Defense D - FD Price $4,900 - DK Price $3,200

Oakland @ Baltimore -3.5 O/U 46.5

This game has seen next to no line movement throughout the week, except for recently the total going down a half point. This is a sneaky game to have exposure too due to how poor Oakland is on defense and how Oakland can score with almost anyone on most weeks. Oakland traveling east and playing early makes them a tough team to target here, but as for the Ravens, you can take some shots. I still cannot trust the running game for the Ravens, along with Steve Smith. The aged veteran seems to be back to form after last week, but he is really tough to trust still at this point. I'll be looking to target Mike Wallace here as he as a good shot at beating the sketchy Oakland secondary for a TD or two. His price is affordable and the match-up won't get much better for him.

Mike Wallace WR - FD Price $6,700 - DK Price $5,200

Denver -3 @ Tampa Bay O/U 44

The total for this game has seen a drop of abouta point and a half, but the three point spread has remained in tact. I don't like either team in this spot to be honest. This has the making of a very low scoring game with Denver stuck coming east off a great game. Tampa looked very good on offense last week, and I certainly expect them to regress in this match-up. Sanders off a hot week may be liked by others, but as mentioned I really don't like this spot for both teams. I will be doing a complete fade on this game.

Cameron Artis-Payne RB - FD Price $4,800 - DK Price $3,000

Dallas -2 @ San Francisco O/U 45

This big news from this game is the lack of Dez Bryant suiting up for Sunday. This news moved the total down one point and tightened the spread between these teams from 3 down to 2.San Francisco should be able to keep pace with Dallas here and it's tough not to like Hyde on DK for 4200. He is 2600 more on Fanduel, so enjoy the cost savings on DK for a player that shoulders most of the load for the Niners. For Dallas, with no Dez expect Beasley to be quite a popular play. His workload may not see a huge increase, but he will offer a solid floor for his price with no Dez. Dak and Beasley have had a solid connection early on and he is a great punt play for Sunday.

Cole Beasley WR - FD Price $5,200 - DK Price $3,900

New Orleans @ San Diego -4 O/U 53.5

The fantasy goodness game of the week lies right here. Each week the big fantasy game will typically include the Saints as they are awful on defense and score against everyone. As per usual with these types of game, every starter is targetable, but for cash games just lock in Melvin Gordon. He will be very high owned, as he should be with this type of match-up. For GPPs, you can certainly fade and stack Rivers with a Chargers WR or vice versa with the Saints, but Gordon has the prime match-up here and is still priced affordable.

Melvin Gordon RB - FD Price $7,600. DK Price - $6,300

Los Angeles @ Arizona -8 O/U 46

I've mentioned this in articles in the past here and I'll mention it again. I love when teams play each-other coming off complete opposite public perception weeks. The Rams looked great on offense last week, and the Cardinals looked quite the opposite. Well, the Cardinals are back home and the Rams are on the road in this spot. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot for the Cardinals here and I really think they perform very well. I actually hate all Rams players in this game, due to the volatile nature of the NFL and this is just an awful spot for them on the road. I think a Palmer/Fitzgerald/Johnson stack is a nice one for GPPs, as all could have huge games, but I'll be targeting Palmer here the most. I love David Johnson, but there are various other RBs for cheaper that offer high floors as well. The QB position isn't as reassuring tomorrow, and I like Palmer to bounce back in a huge way. His price took a hit on both sites, and enjoy the discount. Play him with confidence.

Carson Palmer QB - FD Price $8,000 - DK Price $6,300

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh -5 O/U 47

The total on this game is actually higher than I expected, but hasn't seen much movement since open. I do think though that people will see what KC did to the Jets at home and assume this defense is back to it's last season ways, but I'm not sold just yet. They looked poor in their first two game, and have an overrated secondary in my opinion. This defense can be exploited and was quite a bit in the first two weeks. I think Pitt moves the ball well in this one and with Bell back, this team just got more lethal on offense. With the cost savings that these sites are offering this week, I think you should give yourself a good exposure to Antonio Brown again. I understand you aren't getting him for a discount, but he offers the highest floor of all WRs in the league, and at home he is almost always in play. Find a way to fit him into your lineup this week, as the high priced WRs aside form him do not have ideal match-ups.

Antonio Brown WR - FD Price $9,400 - DK Price $9,700