NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Due to injuries last week prices were all over the place. You were able to play super cheap value plays and stack any big boys you wanted too. People also got heavily payed off from one of Leveon Bell's last touches which was a long carry that put him over 100 yards. This week there is a lot of injury news which has semi impacted the lines as well. There are not near as many road favorites, but there are certainly favorable spots for many players. There are cheap players across the top DFS sites that allow you to compile big studs again. Vegas is giving away tips with thier lines as always and I'll lay it all out for you. Please feel free to view the line movement each day at the following link: DFC NFL Vegas Line Movement.
Houston @ Minnesota -6.5 O/U 40.5
This is by no means a fun game to target for DFS purposes, and little line movement throughout the week proves this theory correct. The line has shifted a fraction of a point towards Minny, but again not much at all since open. We are learning early on that targeting players vs. the Vikings is not wise, and this spot is disastrous for the Texans. On Minnesota's side McKinnon is way under-priced on DK and is getting a large volume of touches. His FanDuel price is not warranted though, but I do love playing RBs for teams favorited by about a TD, as they are expected to play most of the game with a lead. The most viable option form this game though is the MInnesota Defense. Expect this defense to be about 30% owned due to lack of other solid options on the slate, how well they've played to start the year, and the low price. It's a chalky play, but not worth fading in this spot. Play Minnesota
Minnesota Defense - FD Price $4,800 - DK Price $3,400
Tennessee @ Miami -3.5 O/U 43
No real important news or notes here except regarding Arian Foster being doubtful. These are two bad teams going head to head here, and the line has seen next to no movement since the jump. This total tells me though that Vegas expects somewhat of a stalemate here in this one. Lots of GPP flyers in this game as I expect everyone except Landry to be overlooked in this game. Landry is always safe, I just don't like how well the Titans have done against opponent #1 WRs. Tennessee plays are just tough to trust, however Murray's volume may be the best in the NFL. If I'm targeting anyone in this game though it is Ryan Tannehill. His price has come down and he gets Tennessee at home on a long week after last Thursday. I don't love Tannehill to smash records in this one, but his price is great considering him being home, and no real threat on the ground behind him.
Ryan Tannehill QB - FD Price $7,100 - DK Price $5,700
New England -10.5 @ Cleveland O/U 46.5
Long hail the return of Tom Brady. Boy did the books make you want to lay heavy juice on the road in this one. The spread hasn't moved much despite the public pounding the Patriots minus the points. I've said this before in previous articles, that winning by 10+ points on the road is not an easy task and it's asking a lot of Brady and that defense in his return. I do like the Browns to score about 14-17 as well, so you will need 4 TDs from the Pats. Very doable, but I don't like banking on that type of production offensively from one team when I'm betting them. With all that said, Brady will be a popular play come Sunday, and deservedly so. The Browns have been torched by mediocre QBs all year, and now they get a future hall of famer. I personally will be fading Brady in this spot due to lack of reps and I typically do not play QBs on the road in the NFL. I'm actually targeting Duke Johnson in this game. An RB that sees a heavy volume when playing from behind, and that's certainly the expectation in this game. He is low priced and I like this spot here for him at home coming off two straight games with at least 8 carries and 5 catches.
Duke Johnson RB - FD Price $5,300 - DK Price $4,100
N.Y. Jets @ Pittsburgh -7 PK O/U 48
Expect this game to be a heavily targeted one for DFS. While this line has seen next to no movement throughout the week, people love the Steelers at home. There is very good reason for this as the Steelers star players have become as safe as they come. Everyone is betting the Steelers yet the line is not moving much towards them. I cannot warrant playing Bell here for his price even though, he is as safe as they come. This is because the Jets are stingy on the ground and there are many cheaper RB options this week. Antonio Brown is a favorite play of mine and will of everyone else as well. I will actually be targeting Brandon Marshall everywhere in this game. No Decker means a high demand of targets for him in a game they'll be playing from behind. Fitzpatrick is sneaky too seeing how cheap he is everywhere after two awful performances, but Marshall is the play for me.
Brandon Marshall WR - FD Price $7,600 - DK Price $7,100
Washington @ Baltimore -3.5 O/U 45
Interesting game here as the total has dipped about 2 points since open, and could be due to some decent winds forecast in this game. The spread hasn't seen much movement, but The Ravens have just found ways to squeak out wins this season late. I actually like the Redskins in this spot due to, I expect them to have more urgency here. Cousins should be able to find spots in that Ravens secondary all game and I'm a fan of DeSean in this game. The bounce back spot is real for him and the Ravens secondary is certainly suspect. On the Ravens side, you can possibly trust Terrance West against the Redskins defense who gives up boats of points to RBs, but a potential time share scares me for his price. Don't mind the play at all, just know there is risk involved for the price. I will roll out Jackson comfortably in this game.
DeSean Jackson WR - FD Price $6,700 - DK Price $5,900
Philadelphia -3 @ Detroit O/U 46
The Eagles are getting pounded with money this week moving the line from 2 all the way to 3 which is a key number for sportsbooks. The total though has seen no jump in movement. the Eagles have had a great start to the year and come into this game off a bye week, while the Lions are riddled with offensive injuries. the most popular play on the slate may be Zach Ertz, who is making his return from injury. Priced very low on all sites, and expect his production to pickup right where it left off before his injury. As for Detroit, I really like Theo Riddick. The only back left behind him is Zach Zenner, so expect Theo to get a huge lift in this game as far as volume. Riddick has a nice floor for his price and I like this spot for him to get enough work to warrant playing. If he scores a TD he'll end up crushing value. If I'm only playing one from this game though, it's Zach Ertz.
Zach Ertz TE - FD Price $5,600 - DK Price $3,500
Chicago @ Indianapolis -4.5 O/U 48
This will be another popular game to target for DFS with two poor defenses going at it. This game has seen next to no line movement as this line does seem very accurate. Anytime the colts are home and favored, Andrew Luck is in play. He has had a rocky start, but certainly look for him to have a solid outing here. The guy I'm looking at here and who will be popular is Jordan Howard. He is still priced affordable on both sites and the Colts cannot stop RBs. Howard is a great between the tackles runner and though he's a rookie, is very, very, talented. Expect the Bears to keep pace in this one leaning on Howard not just running but catching passes as well. Play Howard with confidence.
Jordan Howard RB - FD Price $7,200 - DK Price $5,200
Atlanta @ Denver -5 O/U 47
Atlanta has looked great to start the year, but draws a real tough match-up heading to Denver. This line has actually moved a few point towards Atlanta since open, which shows how much confidence betters have in this Falcons team, but this is an awful spot for them off a huge week last week. I cannot warrant playing anyone against Denver especially in Denver, but on the other side of the ball there are options. Sanders has had a great start to the year and is still affordable on all sites, however I'll be rolling out C.J in my lineups anywhere I can afford him. He is priced lower than Bell everywhere and I believe offers a similar ceiling.The Falcons defense is not very good and will struggle here, but with the question marks at QB, expect Denver to lean heavily on C.J. 100 yards and a TD with a few catches is very probable for C.J in this spot.
C.J. Anderson RB - FD Price $8,000 - DK Price $6,900
Buffalo @ Los Angeles -1 O/U 39
Since open, this spread has moved to Rams -1 or a pickem at all sites. the total has also gone down as well. The is a gross game for fantasy purposes as these two teams have decent defenses and both primarily run the ball. This has the makings of a slow moving game with no real DFS gold. If I'm looking anywhere in this game it would be at Todd Gurley. Priced down form the first few weeks and has a decent match-up here at home, where they will lean on him heavily once again. Gurley had a great year last year, and hasn't really gotten going yet, but I like his chances to have a solid game here. His price is very favorable in this spot, so enjoy the price cut while it lasts on one of the NFL's best backs.
Todd Gurley RB - FD Price $7,600 - DK Price $6,500
San Diego @ Oakland -3.5 O/U 51
We've come to the fantasy darling match of the week. This will be the most targeted game by fellow DFSers and for good reason. Two teams that don't play defense and can run up the scoreboard. While the spread hasn't seen much movement, the total has gone down about a point since open which leaves some area for concern, but it is still the highest total on the board. Expect the Chargers to lean on Phillip Rivers in this spot as the Raiders cannot stop anything through the air. I don't like Gordon in this spot due to his lack of YPC, and playing in a game where the Chargers will lean more on the passing game to keep pace. My favorite play in this game though in in Oakland and it's Amari Cooper. Jason Verrett is out for the year and this opens up a huge opportunity for Cooper. People are actually starting to preach Crabtree over Cooper, but this is silly. Cooper is the #1 over there, and expect them to get him back heavily involved in the offense this Sunday.
Amari Cooper WR - FD Price $7,200 - DK Price $7,200
Cincinnati -2 @ Dallas O/U 45.5
This game has only seen slight movement towards the Bengals, but other than that next to nothing at all. This is not really a very target-able DFS game, but there are some cheap options that could pay off. On the Bengals side, it's tough to target players here. Dallas's defense has been decent and the Bengals have a lot of players involved on offense. I'll be staying away from them. On the Cowboys side, no Dez again means that WR core is in play again. Out of all the WRs, I prefer Brice Butler who play about 80% of the snaps last week, and expect a similar number this week. He is still near minimumu price on all sites, and expect the volume to be there for the potential for a big pay off.
Brice Butler WR - FD Price $5,100 - DK Price $3,500
N.Y. Giants @ Green-Bay -7 O/U 48
This is another game that has seen next to no line movement throughout the entire week. Green-Bay off of a bye and the Giants off a road lost to Minnesota where they looked very poor. Well, as you may know the NFL is a week to week league and I like the Giants to step up here in this one. Rodgers and crew will score points and we know this, but I expect the Giants to keep pace. they will do so by getting their diva WR heavily involved this week. #1 WRs have torched Green-Bay the past few weeks and Odell is in a prime spot to keep up this trend. Odell is coming off of an awful game, and with the Giants expected to be trailing, they will lean heavily on him in this spot. Expect a 10+ target type game from Odell with him going over 100 yards and a score or two. I prefer Odell over Jordy Nelson.