NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Last week was showed us with various players that you could have the right spot/price for them, but that still doesn't mean they come through for you. McKinnon was highly touted across the industry and the spot couldn't get much better. A 4K player who got 20+ touches was still the right play regardless of the outcome. DeAndre Washington was still the right play at near min price regardless of his outcome. All I'm saying here is just because plays don't work out doesn't mean your system is flawed. Those were two good situations, that just didn't come through. This does go back to the large benefit in pivoting off of chalky plays in a small percentage of your lineups, ans it could pay serious dividends. This week is certainly different than all he rest seeing as it's filled with large favorites across the board. There are 7 games this week that carry a spread of 5 or more points. These types of weeks leave options all over the place. I will break down what free information Vegas's lines are offering to the public. Please feel free to view the line movement each day at the following link: DFC NFL Vegas Line Movement.
Cincinnati @ New England -9 O/U 47.5
Boy did NE look good with Brady back. While, the match-up was a bit of a cupcake, on the road left some thinking it could be a trap situation to target players. Anyway, this week NE is back home and this line has shown near no line movement from open. This line is a bit padded in my opinion because of Cinci's big loss and NE's big win. I feel this spread should be 7 at the most, and they are giving you two extra free points here. With that said NE should be able to put up points fairly easy in this game, I just also expect Cinci to score here as well. I love the idea of Cinci playing from behind all game and targeting the passing weapons, but just can't find any value guys I like in this spot. On NE's side, there are plenty of mouths to feed on that offense, that it makes it quite difficult to land on players. I don't love any options here, but if I had to pick a player in this game it would be Edelman. Edelman saw plenty of looks last week with Brady back and his price is still affordable based on his volume. With the big TEs garnering plenty of attention this week, I expect Edelman to out perform exceptions in this spot. Don't love the play, but he will be grossly under owned in this spot.
Julian Edelman WR - FD Price $7,200 - DK Price $6,800
Baltimore @ N.Y. Giants -3 O/U 45
The total on this game is actually trending in the up direction, which is always a positive note for DFSers. Line opened at 43.5 and is now 545 at most spots. The spread hasn't seen any movement at all though, as it remains at 3. Seeing the Giants are favored here, make me want to like Odell in this spot, but I just cannot trust this Giants team anymore. I loved them last week in that Green-Bay game and they completely flat lined on me. The giants are too difficult to predict for comfort, but should be able to move the ball against the shaky Baltimore defense. On the Raven, side news has broke about Steve Smith being doubtful, and insert Kamar Aiken into fantasy relevance once again. The Giants severely struggle with slot WRs, and Aiken lives over there. He is minimum price in a not so overall appealing game, but the volume should be there, and he allows you to fit in other studs. Really like Aiken in this spot, and he figures to be a popular option on all slates.
Kamar Aiken WR - FD Price $5,200 - DK Price $3,000
Carolina -3 @ New Orleans O/U 53.5
This very well may be people's favorite game to target of the entire season. As for line movement, the only thing of note is a small 1/2 point move up to 53.5 from 53, but nothing else worth noting from Vegas. Cam's is expected to make a full return on Sunday, though has not yet been cleared while this was being written. It would be shocking if he doesn't play though. He makes for a huge play in this game, as he crushes it in the dome. A game that's expected to be competitive, and points the norm, you have to love Cam in this spot. Any starters is viable in GPPs in this game, but the safest bet is Cam. Don't get cute and pay down for QB this week in cash games to fit other guys in. Take your 25-30 points from Cam and build your lineup around him.There is no sense in me writing up each and every specific player here, as I mentioned they are all in play. It is worth noting though, that Ingram is a solid discount on FD this week to give you NO exposure. Regardless Cam is the play.
Cam Newton QB - FD Price $8,900 - DK Price $8,100
Pittsburgh -7 @ Miami O/U 48.5
Oh the Steelers on the road typically makes people's stomachs turn. Before I get into that, this total has jumped a point from open, and has been hovering between 7 and 7.5 throughout the week. Big Ben's home/road splits are some of the biggest the NFL has to offer. It kills me to see that ESPN has him as the #1 QB on their QB ranks for the week. Based on line movement, sharps clearly expect points to be the norm here, but this line is remaining at 7, even with how bad Miami looks. I can this is a real trap spot for the Steelers. While I expect, the Steelers to score often, I certainly expect their defense to be a let down here. I don't have to tell you that Bell and Brown are in play every week, but if it helps I prefer Bell in this spot over Brown. I know Wheaton is out and Coates may be as well, which may lead to huge volume for Brown, but Bell's usage should be even higher than it's been. If Ben struggles as he often does on the road, they will turn to Bell all game. Bell is the best play in this game, but I will write up a different guy in this spot as Bell and Brown are always obvious. One of my favorite plays of the day is Jarvis Landry. I love targeting wideouts vs. Pitt and Landry should see plenty of volume coming off a poor showing last week. Expected to play from behind, Landry will see all the looks he can handle, and I like him to go over 100 yards with a TD here. His price is down on both sites as well, so enjoy the discount, so you can play the other studs in this game with him.
Jarvis Landry WR - FD Price $6,900 - DK Price $6,800
Jacksonville @ Chicago -1.5 O/U 45.5
This line has seen some interesting movement to say the least. The total has gone down almost 2 points since open and the Bears are down to a 1.5 favorite from 2.5. Money is being bet on the under and Jacksonville which is just strange to me. Anyway, the Jaguars have a tough offense to trust. Allen Robinson hasn't exceeded 72 yards in a game all season. Allen Hurns is TD reliant for value and there is still somewhat of a committee in the backfield. I just don't like this spot for players even though it appears sharps like this spot for the Jaguars to upset. On the Bears side of things, the player that will probably be the highest owned on the slate plays for the Bears. This is Cameron Meredith. He stepped right in and has filled the spot far better than expected for Kevin White. Brian Hoyer seems to just love throwing to the right side of the field and Cameron Meredith is reeking all the benefits. He is still priced very low on all sites, and expect to see him in your opponents lineups. You can pivot to Royal to be different, but keep in mind how tilting it will be watching Meredith owners pass you by if he has a big game again. Play Meredith for the match-up and for protection against the projected massive ownership. Jordan Howard is a fine player, but there are other RBs, that I'll be focusing on this week. Any other week, I would have a lot of Howard exposure, but I prefer other RBs this week over him.
Cameron Meredith WR - FD Price $5,400 - DK Price $4,100
San Francisco @ Buffalo -9 O/U 44
The Buffalo Bills are the chalk said no one ever... until now. This total has only gone down a 1/2 point since open but has seen a two point movement towards the Bills bringing them up to a 9 point favorite. On the 49ers side, I could see the argument for Carlos Hyde on DK as his price still seems a bit low, but there are way too many RB options to be comfortable paying down for him on the road as a 9 point underdog. The options are really endless on Buffalo's side as far as team stacks go. Taylor, McCoy, Woods, Clay are all in play here on both sites, but certainly who I'll be heavily targeting is McCoy. No less than 19 touches all year, with a plus match-up at home, McCoy should have himself a game. you can certainly play him with confidence and pound for pound he's my second favorite RB play behind Bell. I will also have Charles Clay exposure especially on DK, just due to how low his price his in a game where he'll see his targets.Taylor's price is real appetizing on DK, but as mentioned earlier, I won't be convinced off of Cam Newton. McCoy is my guy here.
LeSean McCoy RB - FD Price $8,200 - DK Price $6,900
Los Angeles @ Detroit -3 O/U 43.5
As crazy as this may sound, this game has had 0 line movement all week. This game must be getting bet evenly and that's fine. This is not a fun game to target for DFS in my opinion. I don't like the Rams offense at all, and this match-up doesn't exactly light off fireworks for me either. Detroit is dealing with injuries though which could project well for others. Riddick, and Ebron are out, which means others will see more options in the passing game. Even though the RB situation could be something to look into, I don't like the splitting carries between Washington and Forsett as something to try to exploit. The guy you should be looking into here is Marvin Jones. Coming off a few tough games, he comes back home, and the Rams starting corner is out among many other injuries that defense is dealing with. Expect Marvin Jones to get back on track here. His price will scare many away, but I like him more on both sites than any player within 200-300 of him at WR.
Marvin Jones WR - FD Price $7,700 - DK Price $7,200
Cleveland @ Tennessee -7 O/U 43.5
Tennessee being a 7 point favorite is not something I expected to see all year. This line has seen a dip in the total of one point since open, but other than that, there is really no Vegas line movements news here. I cannot target any guys on Cleveland as this team is an all around mess and Tennessee's defense is a bit better than people think. On the other side, the recipe for the Browns all year has been target QBs against them. However, I expect many to instead target Murray in this spot. While, I think Murray is a fine option, I will not have much exposure to him this week. I don't like his price, and a lot of his points have come from catching passes while playing from behind. A sheer lock for 20 touches, makes him in play against almost anyone, but even with a plus match-up here, I'll be looking elsewhere. there are many RBs on this slate, and it's pick your poison. Instead, in this game, I'll be target Delanie Walker. Not sure if you've seen recently but TEs just crush the Browns. See Jordan Reed two weeks ago and Gronk/Bennett last week. I'll be comfortably rolling out Walker at TE as one of my overall favorite plays on the slate.
Delanie Walker TE - FD Price $6,700 - DK Price $5,500
Philadelphia -3 @ Washington O/U 44.5
The total on this game hasn't budged since open, but the spread has moved from 2 to 3 in favor of the Eagles. I actually think this is a tough game for Philly to win even though they are favored. I like the Redskins as a home dog to win outright in this game even the the line movement says otherwise. I don't feel the Redskins are getting enough respect here, and I think they show up here and get a win at home. As for players to choose from as options, the Redskins and Eagles have plenty of mouths to feed and it's tough to predict which player to run out in a given week. I will be fading this game completely, and don't feel any player is viable for cash lineups.
Kansas City -1 @ Oakland O/U 47
The weather in this game is supposed to be awful. As for Vegas movement, it's worth noting that Oakland opened as a 1 point favorite and now KC is a one point favorite. People just love the semi-narrative of Andy Reid's record off of bye weeks I guess. That or the bad weather plays to KC's strength more than Oakland. The rain doesn't bother me as much as it relates to passing offenses like Oakland's but the wind is a scary thing. They are calling for 20mph winds and this would be hell to throw in. I really don't feel comfortable even mentioning players in this game due to the poor weather and shaky RB situations on both teams. if the weather calms down, then Maclin/Cooper are certainly in play, but this doesn't look to be the case.
Atlanta @ Seattle -6 O/U 46
The weather here is expected to be very similar as the Oakland game. This game has seen no line movement at all but with poor weather, this virtually eliminates me from trusting any passing options on both sides. The difference with this game is the RB situation is a bit more clear on Seattle. Christine Michael, has a great spot to have a big game. He is a nice pivot from the other chalk RBs. With bad weather, he should see plenty of touches and have himself a good game against a defense susceptible to the ground game. This is another scenario though, if the weather clears up, that Wilson/Baldwin is a solid contrarian stack with many people staying away from the weather issues.
Christine Michael RB - FD Price $7,400 - DK Price $6,800
Dallas @ Green-Bay -4 O/U 47.5
The total on this game has seen a full point move in the up direction, but hasn't seen much spread movement at all. This total is actually higher than I expected it to be. I know that both teams score, but Dallas is pretty good on defense and the Packers defense is the best against the run which Dallas does best. This is actually a tough game to target for DFS because of this reason. A lot of question marks on Green-Bay's RB situation this week, which could make Randall Cobb and interesting play. He could be the guy getting touches in the backfield if Starks and Lacy cannot play. The Cowboys WR options could be targeted against GB here, but it's tough to trust them individually. If I'm playing anyone in this spot it would be Randall Cobb, but I really don't love the play. I know this total is high, but I see this being a more controlled pace game and going under this total.
Randall Cobb WR - FD Price $7,000 - DK Price $6,000
Indianapolis @ Houston -3 O/U 48.5
These Sunday night game certainly haven't lacked DFS options the past few weeks. While this spread hasn't seen much movement at all this week, the total has jumped tow points since open. This is interesting because being the Sunday Night game the heaviest money comes in on this game late Sunday. This early movement certainly indicates to me that this total could even hit 50 before game time tomorrow night. It's no surprise that this game has a high total with the Colts bad defense and the Texans defense under performing. As for DFS options, there are plenty here, but Lamar Miller has to be your guy. I get it 0 TDs this season, and had a bad showing last week. Thing was they got down early and were forced to play catch-up. This week Miller should get back to his normal allotment of carries and gets a dream match-up here. Miller is my 3rd favorite back this week with taking price into consideration. Obviously TY Hilton is in play as always, but I'd prefer other alternatives on the slate. I'm also not planning on tossing a coin to see if it's a Will Fuller week or DeAndre Hopkins week either. I'll be confidently playing Miller throughout my lineups.
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