NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Those looking for insight into the importance of line movement can check back to last week's take. In Week 2, it is straight to the action. Make sure to check out the Line Movement Tool and all the goodies that come with it.
Heisman Showdown: Part Deux
Week 1 couldn't have gone differently for the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, as Marcus Mariota's debut was jaw-dropping, and Cleveland was bullied by the New York Jets.
Amazingly, the line came out with Cleveland as 3.5-point home favorites Sunday. It quickly moved to the Titans as 1-point road favorites by Monday, and at one point this week, Tennessee even was sporting 2-point chalk.
What is important for our fantasy purposes is the low over/under total, which hasn't budged. The public is backing Tennessee on both the moneyline (78 percent) and the spread (79 percent), but the point total is receiving nearly equal love on each side -- 55 percent in favor of the over.
Johnny Manziel will make his third career start for Cleveland, and he has fantasy appeal for his potential groundwork. However, with a cast of weapons of mass insignificance at his disposal, he checks out as the ultimate desperation-contrarian start. There isn't a lot to like about the Cleveland running game, either, especially if Duke Johnson works into the mix more.
Tennessee's pass catchers face a tall task with the Browns allowing just 11 touchdowns through air at home last season, and Kendall Wright facing off against shut-down-corner Joe Haden. Note, C.D. Carter's stat drop on Haden's weak Week 1, though.
Delanie Walker is questionable with a hand injury, too, which shouldn't impact his status for the game, but it may limit his upside Sunday. So, Mariota checks out as a touch of a gamble, but there certainly isn't anything wrong with the cap hit.
After Chris Ivory gashed Cleveland for 4.6 yards per carry and two scores, Bishop Sankey should yield a profit on his RB2 price tag Sunday. It might not make you comfortable, but Terrance West and Dexter McCluster shouldn't cut into his workload enough to fret Sankey's cap-friendly salary.
Cards dealing in the Windy City again?
Our interest here, again, lies in the over/under, as it has climbed two points since opening at 45, and it has received 76 percent of pubic backing. Arizona's front-seven stuffed the run game of the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, but they allowed 355 yards through the air.
Enter Jay Cutler's reckless abandon, and a potential shootout looms. While Matt Forte could have trouble padding his rushing statistics, he'll do just fine in the passing game and stands to have another large fantasy showing. You'll just have to spend up to roster him.
Alshon Jeffery has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, so expect Marquess Wilson to see more looks in the vertical game. Wilson presents huge value in the daily racket and opens up cap wiggle room to spend at other positions. There are no sleepers in 2015, though, so his ownership percent could skyrocket by game time.
The Green Bay Packers averaged 4.43 yards per tout on the ground, and Aaron Rodgers completed 18-of-23 passes (78.3 percent). And while the Cardinals might not have the same efficiency, they may offer more home run potential. The Packers only attempted three passes of over 25 yards, whereas Arizona attempted nine deep balls of at least 25 yards in Week 1.
Carson Palmer, John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald are all high-floor plays Sunday, and they all offer huge upside relative to their mid-range salaries. Similarly, for those who have the stomach, Chris Johnson is expected to be the bell-cow back, and Chicago is porous against the rush.
Weekend high: The Philadelphia Eagles are up to 5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, and this tilt has the highest over/under total at 55. Philadelphia coughed up a comeback win last week, and Dallas, opportunistically, took what was given. Beware of Dallas trying to slow this game down and eat clock, but their defense will bend, break and surrender ample points -- both real and fake -- to the Philly playmakers.
(Up the) road game: The Jacksonville Jaguars turned the ball over three times and returned nine points in Week 1, and now face the dangerous Miami Dolphins who sleepwalked to victory against the Washington Redskins last week. Miami opened as 4.5-point favorites and are now receiving 6-point chalk. Lamar Miller won't be on a pitch count in Week 2.
Meadowlands shootout: The Atlanta Flacons and New York Giants check out as the second-highest over/under total at 51 points, which is up a point from opening. Neither defense is intimidating, and both quarterbacks have the weapons and ability to return contest-winning fantasy point totals. Don't be surprised if this is the highest-scoring game on the Week 2 docket.
Saints vs. Pirates: The New Orleans Saints are the biggest favorites of the week opening at a 10.5-point favor. The line sits at 9.5-point chalk with a 47.5 over/under now. The backward movement is meaningful because 93 percent of the moneyline wagers are on the Saints. We're all expecting a large day from Drew Brees, but plenty of sharp money is also projecting a large point total from Jamies Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.