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It is a mini-bye week, which features an early-start London game. The line movement has been minimal, and after there were fewer surprises in Week 3, do we have another upset special ahead this Sunday?

Will Fantasy Ever Meet Reality?

The fantasy value of the Philadelphia Eagles skilled players soared leading into the season, as it looked as if Sam Bradford, his receiving corps, and the backfield were all poised to excel in Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense.

Entering their tilt in Week 4, Philadelphia sits at a 23.5 team total, which is actually down two points from opening. The Eagles are receiving 68 percent of the spread wagers and 85 percent backing on the moneyline.

Washington enters with the eight-ranked scoring defense (19.7 points allowed per game) and the second-ranked yardage defense (277.3 yards allowed per game), and they currently sit as 3-point underdogs at home.The public clearly expects Philadelphia to win the game, but the dwindling over/under total should highlight the lack of confidence in what once looked like a promising offense. Tournament players take note.

Given the success of the Washington defense to date, overexposure to the Eagles offense is ill-advised. There is still sneaky upside in a few playmakers, though. Washington is without cornerback DeAngelo Hall (toe) and linebacker Perry Riley (calf), and cornerback Chris Culliver (knee) practiced sparingly all week.

Simply put, assuming the Eagles have underachieved to date offensively, and Washington has overachieved to a degree, the perfect storm could be in the works for a Philadelphia offensive outburst with Washington down a few key cogs on defense.

A Continuing Trend

The Arizona Cardinals aren't receiving a lot of love from the bookmakers this season. They haven't received significant chalk yet and now own a point differential of 77 through three games.

Yes, Arizona has outscored opponents by 77 points through their first three games. To put it into perspective, only 11 other teams have scored 77 points, and the Cardinals sit atop the league with 126.

In Week 4, they're only receiving seven-point chalk at home to a scuffling offense, and the 25th-ranked rush defense in the league. And the St. Louis Rams enter the divisional contest with just 22 points over their past two games, a note not lost in Denny Carter's slate breakdown.

Carson Palmer enters the game with a 16-2 record over his past 18 outings, and he hasn't lost at University of Phoenix Stadium since Week 16 of 2013. Though, he hasn't lost on the road since then, either.

There is always slight concern when divisional opponents meet. The Cardinals are expected to have Andre Ellington (knee) back, though, which should offset the loss of John Brown (shoulder), if the wideout doesn't suit up.

If Brown is out or limited, it could turn Michael Floyd into a flier for daily contests Sunday. Larry Fitzgerald isn't going to score multiple touchdowns every week. Although, catching 23 of 28 targets through the first three weeks makes Fitzgerald a high-floor option.

Quick Hitters

Homecoming: Much has been made, at least among the talking heads, about Aaron Rodgers returning to California. Bettors are in, too, as Green Bay is receiving 75 percent of the spread action and 92 percent of the moneyline. However, the spread has actually shrunk. Expect it to grow well above a touchdown closer to game time.

Lucky or Busty?: Speculation has swirled around Andrew Luck heading into his dreamy matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Don't over think it, folks. The Colts are hefty favorites, Luck is expected to play, and he has averaged 283.7 vertical yards with 10 passing touchdowns and two rushing scores through six career games against Jacksonville.

Teddy in Mile High: The team total for the Minnesota Vikings has dropped below 18 points, which is actually higher than the average allowed by the Denver Broncos (16.3 points per game). Expect Teddy Bridgewater to have trouble with the ferocious pass rush and league-best pass defense.

* Public betting trends are from Sportsbook Spy.





Comments
zachsgotmoxy
I was on Denver as a sleeper defense and now I am really on them. Thanks again for the information.
JasonG4s
No Andrew Luck today really changes how I view the Colts offense. I also like Yeldon a lot now. Indy team total dropped quite a bit. Great article Neil!