NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
The Fall air never felt crisper than it does this year as God has blessed us with another football season. The 2021-2022 season could be the most anticipated season yet as crowds are allowed back into stadiums after a year off because of the COVID-19 restrictions. This year has all of the theater and dramatics a typical NFL year has, but it’s cranked up to a different level with the energy of crowds, fantasy football, and gamblers across the nation tuning in to every game every week. The offenses will want to put on a show, while the defenses want to cause the fumble or interception that wins the game. The talent and product on the field are the best it has been in a while so let’s take a look at some of my best bets to kick off the new season.
(-4) Ravens vs Raiders
All the Ravens do is beat people down in Week 1. In their past five Week 1 games, the Ravens are 5-0 and have a scoring differential of +151. Last year, they beat the brakes off a pretty good Browns team, 38-6. All Harbaugh and the Ravens know how to do is win and win in a dominant manner.
The Raiders are not too shabby in their Week 1 matchups as they are 4-1 in their last five Week 1 matchups with a scoring differential of +3. In their Week 1 matchup last year, Las Vegas narrowly escaped with the victory when they beat a bad Panthers team.
I’m giving the edge to the Ravens in this matchup not only because they were the 2nd ranked defense and the 18th ranked offense, but because of the tradition and precedent of the Ravens humiliating their Week 1 foe. The Raiders should put up a fight as they were the 8th ranked offense last year, but they were also the 30th ranked defense, which will be too much to overcome against a well-coached and talented Baltimore squad.
(-2.5) Broncos vs Giants
All Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater knows how to do is cover spreads. Bridgewater is 35-13-1 ATS as a starter for the Vikings, Saints, and Panthers and 11-7 in his last 18 starts. Bridgewater is also phenomenal as an underdog as he is 23-4 in such a role. Fading Teddy Two Gloves is a bad idea for bettors as he has made people a fortune in his career. And he should make supporters more money this year as he has a great team around him.
Why I chose the Broncos in this matchup and not the Giants is not only the magic of Teddy Bridgewater but also because of the Swiss cheese Giants offensive line. The Giants allowed a sack on 8.8% of drop backs last season, which ranked 31st in the NFL, and I think the star-studded Broncos defensive line, led by a fresh off an injury Von Miller, will eat them and Daniel Jones for breakfast.
Jets vs Panthers (-5)
I am only placing a huge wager on the Panthers because it’s the Sam Darnold and Robby Anderson revenge game. The Jets almost wasted the talents of these two players and it’s time for them to pay. Apart from that, the Panthers are an overall better and more cohesive team than the Jets.
The Jets have a new coach, new quarterback, new skill players, and new schemes on offense and defense. That’s too much change for a team to overcome, especially so early in the season, and the Panthers seem to be turning their ship around as they are building to something great under second-year coach Matt Rhule.
This game should be frisky, but in the end, I think that the Panthers have the better players and a better idea of how they want to play so they end up with the win and cover.
Cowboys vs Buccaneers: Over 51.1 pts
What’s a better way to kick off an NFL season than with a shootout that would make the cowboys of the old Wild West jealous. These are two of the most explosive offenses from last season and I don’t think they will skip a beat this season.
Before Cowboys QB Dak Prescott missed the last 10 games of the season due to an ankle injury, the Dallas offense was humming as Prescott was bombing the opposing defense at 422.5 yards a game. Star RB, Ezekiel Elliot, was even playing well as he was averaging 60.7 yards a game on the ground before Prescott’s injury. In the five-game span before Prescott’s injury, Dallas was averaging 32.6, so yeah this team was an offensive juggernaut.
On the flip side, Tom Brady did it again as he led his new team to a modest 7th overall offensive ranking in his first season with the Buccaneers. Both of these teams just have too much firepower on offense that makes slowing them down immensely difficult. Take the over and enjoy a touchdown-heavy football game.
Vikings vs Bengals: Over 48 pts
These offenses are awesome and these defenses stink. That’s all you need to know about this game. Need more proof? Fine, last year the Vikings were the 4th best offense and the 4th worst defense. The Bengals were the 4th worst offense and the 11th worst defense, but the offensive numbers are skewed since star rookie QB Joe Burrow went down in the middle of the season due to a knee injury. Under Burrow, the Bengals averaged 22.6 points per game, which is much better than their 19.4 points per game average at the end of the season.
This game has too much offense to contain as the Vikings have Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, while the Bengals have Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Most of these are household names and these should put on a spectacular show in the first week of the 2021-2022 season.
Bears vs Rams: Under 44.5 pts
The data shows to take the under in this matchup. Yes, I know a lot of things have changed for both teams, but after looking at the game logs between these two, you’re going to be glad you didn’t take the over. In their last three matchups, the finals scores have been 6-15, 7-17, and 10-24. So what I’m really saying is that the final points totals have been 21, 24, and 34, or well below the 44.5 set line.
Yes, I know that QB Matthew Stafford is familiar with crushing the Bears and is now the star quarterback for the Rams, but I don’t know. I just think that the scary good Bears’ defense just has Sean McVay and the high-powered Rams offense figured out. Sometimes, you just run into a bad matchup and this is what I think is going on with McVay and the Rams. In the end, I think the Rams win, but more relying on their #1 ranked defense shutting down the anemic offense QB Andy Dalton is leading in Chicago.
Eagles (+155) vs Falcons
This game is going to be about who has the ball last. Both these teams have young star-skill players on offense and absolutely dreadful defenses.
In Atlanta, rookie TE Kyle Pitts is supposed to fill the Julio Jones-sized hole in their hearts along with star WR Calvin Ridley and RB Mike Davis.
In Philly, Jalen Hurts is the man in charge and he will be throwing to a host of weapons that includes star rookie WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, RB Miles Sanders, and TE Dallas Goedert.
This game will be a back and forth game with points lighting up the scoreboard every quarter. In the end, I think the history of Atlanta choking will come back to haunt them and they will make a mistake that will lead to the Eagles winning the game. Ride with the Eagles Week 1 as they are one of the more likely underdogs to pull off the upset.