Week 10 NFL Lines & Odds: Matchup Predictions

Week 10 is setting up to be a big week for division rivals. The Bengals travel to Pittsburgh in a game that could be another cover for Joe Burrow. The Buccaneers travel to Carolina, while the Seahawks have to bounce back against the Rams. We also have an intriguing game between the Bills and Cardinals as two offenses are expected to put up monster points with an over/under set at 56. Seven games are sitting 50 or higher and that remains high given that the Falcons and Chiefs are also two teams on bye this week. The largest spread belongs to Green Bay this week, while a majority of games are within three.

IND @ TEN

This is the battle for the division right here as the Texans and Jaguars struggled out of the gates. Both of these teams are near opposites as the Colts play defensive minded football and have little to give offensively, where the Titans are the opposite. That seems to be the issue for the Colts moving forward if they give up some points, the offense struggles to keep up or try and make it a game. As long as Philip Rivers is under center, I will continue to fade the Colts in these types of games. While I like the Colts defense to show up, the Titans defense is good enough to hold them to a minimum. The over/under of 48.5 is a bit high on a short week, and I am looking at the under.

HOU @ CLE

Cleveland has a schedule over the next few weeks where they can really make it easy on themselves for being in the playoff picture. It starts this week against Houston. They are 2-6 and have struggled defensively, but Deshaun Watson is the reason this group isn't winless. Houston is 1-7 ATS this season and one of the worst teams in the league. Offensively they will be in this game because the Browns secondary is still a question mark but it is hard to see Houston slowing down this offense that will get Nick Chubb and Austin Hooper back. -3 is a solid spread for hammering the Browns here.

WAS @ DET

Both teams are coming off disappointing performances in Week 9, and both teams have been fine against the spread. Detroit come in as favorites and this offense continues to be very lackluster without Kenny Golladay. It is hard to trust them against what has been a solid Washington defense this season. As the Lions continue to feed Adrian Peterson, I am not sure any sane person can rely on them to cover a spread. Washington will likely roll out Alex Smith this week and giving Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin touches will be the key to a victory.

JAX @ GB

Green Bay come in as two-touchdown favorites this week and the Jaguars covered against the Texans but the Packers have a better pass defense. Generally I stay away from spreads this large, but Green Bay is 6-2 and getting back healthy bodies this week. Aaron Jones and Davante Adams will be able to have a field day and Jacksonville rolling out a quarterback making his second start against a better secondary. This should be a cake walk for the Packers.

PHI @ NYG

Another lovely NFC East battle, although the Eagles are finally getting a bit healthy. Miles Sanders is set to return this week, and both Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor added to the passing game before the bye. I understand oddsmakers not giving the Eagles a -4.5 or -5 line here so if you can buy the point or find this one at 3, I will roll with that. This is a good matchup for the Eagles to build some second half momentum off the bye.

TB @ CAR

Tampa is coming off a game to forget and the Panthers played the Chiefs very tough on the road. Carolina continues to be one of the more impressive teams despite a 3-6 record. They are 5-4 ATS this season while Tampa Bay is 4-5. We should see another close game this week, and the Panthers pass defense has been better than expected. This is an awfully high total where if we get some of those stalling drives, the under could hit. Both Carolina and Tampa have been around .500 when it comes to over/under this season.

DEN @ LV

Denver and Las Vegas are both 5-3 this season ATS. This is a tough game to predict and especially with the Raiders being given a five point spread. Denver is certainly better than their record indicates and this one should be a close game. Denver's has had a tough schedule this season but have held their own. With the Raiders defense still being below average, this offense should keep pace and defensively they can match up a bit better against Las Vegas compared to Atlanta this week. Denver is a team that I like to cover.

LAC @ MIA

This Miami team is strong and the 5-3 record shows only a part of that. They have faced one of the toughest schedules this season and have come out on top in five of eight games and marched into Arizona last week to pull off a terrific win. Tua has looked great and the defense has been fantastic. Both rookie quarterbacks look awesome. Miami as -2.5 favorites is a strong number for them. Any larger is where I would get a bit more uncomfortable. They are 6-2 ATS this season and sit at +11.1, which is the best in the league.

BUF @ ARI

Arizona gets another home game against an AFC East opponent and Buffalo is coming off a win against the NFC West division leaders. Both Arizona and Buffalo have been decent against the spread. Buffalo has been a terrific over team while the Cardinals are 2-6 on the over. This has had a lot to do with some of their opponents. This game has shootout written all over it and I rather attack the over instead of the spread.

SEA @ LAR

Seattle struggled on the road last week and while they head back west, they are still on the road against the Rams. Los Angeles is fresh off a bye and are 4-4 ATS this season, while Seattle is 5-3. Offensively we can give an edge to Seattle but the defenses are in complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Seattle's defense is the biggest issue and for the Rams it is the inconsistencies of the offense. Wilson losing back-to-back weeks is tough to get behind but this defense is unlikely to slow down a good receiving core. I think Goff plays well enough to pull this one out and create some chaos in the NFC West.

SF @ NO

San Francisco gets a little bit healthier this week but the Saints got healthy last week and put a spanking on the Buccaneers on the road. The Saints are a solid bet at home but nearly ten point favorites is not a number I love. The 50 point over/under is a solid one to hit the over on. Nick Mullens has shown the ability to put some drives together and Brandon Aiyuk coming back and possibly Deebo Samuel will help. New Orleans will put up their share of points as well.

CIN @ PIT

Cincinnati has been one of the best spread teams this season sitting at 6-2 ATS. Pittsburgh is 6-2 as well but the offense continues to be up and down. Cincinnati has played very well this season and will get Joe Mixon back this week. I will continue to back Joe Burrow and this offense to cover, especially with the Steelers offense not really being a big threat. Ben Roethlisberger is also on the covid list which we need to monitor, he was a negative but considered close contact. I would get on the Bengals line now.

BAL @ NE

Baltimore continues to fail to wow us after a strong season last year. Offensively they have taken a major step back and the offensive line injuries have now hit like so many other teams. On the other side I expected the Patriots offense to struggle and I can't see them getting it together against this Ravens defense. The Patriots defense has also taken a step back. While Baltimore hasn't looked great, I expect them to cover against a bottom tier team here.

MIN @ CHI

Minnesota are road favorites here, and that was a bit of a surprise. I know Chicago has been struggling, but Minnesota is not a team defensively that can shut down an opponent anymore, even the Bears. Chicago's defense has a very good secondary that can shut down Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins is also not a reliable arm. Dalvin has been a machine but Chicago will at least be able to make him work. The Bears being dogs here was a big surprise and I will take them to cover.

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