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Week 12 sets up with now two games on Thursday as the Steelers-Ravens game was moved to Sunday due to covid reasons. This is a loaded week with enticing matchups and a lot of high scoring games as usual. There are some larger favorites not not a ton of convincing ones where you feel safe going that route. I expect some chaos this week, as if the first 11 weeks haven't brought you any. This season continues to be unpredictable but there are a lot of spreads here leaning towards team that have not had a good track record of covering or being reliable options.

Game

Spread

Over/Under

Texans at Lions

Texans -3

51.5

Washington at Cowboys

Cowboys -3

46

Ravens at Steelers

Steelers -5.5

44.5

Raiders at Falcons

Raiders -3

55.5

Cardinals at Patriots

Cardinals -2.5

49.5

Giants at Bengals

Giants -5.5

42.5

Browns at Jaguars

Browns -6.5

49

Panthers at Vikings

Vikings -4

48.5

Titans at Colts

Colts -3.5

51

Chargers at Bills

Bills -5.5

53.5

Dolphins at Jets

Dolphins -7

44.5

Saints at Broncos

Broncos -5.5

43.5

49ers at Rams

Rams -7

45

Chiefs at Buccaneers

Chiefs -3.5

56

Bears at Packers

Packers -8.5

45

Seahawks at Eagles

Eagles +5.5

50.5

HOU @ DET

With Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola ruled out on the offensive side and Jeff Okudah on the defensive side, there is not a lot of hope for the Lions this week. As bad as the Houston defense is, it is hard to see the Lions being able to put up points in this one. Matthew Stafford is also not 100% healthy either. The Texans also are a major mismatch on offense with Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller against this secondary.

WAS @ DAL

Both Washington and Dallas are coming off big wins this week and despite each team having three wins, this is a battle for the NFC east. Andy Dalton looked better last week and Alex Smith under center gives Washington a less turnover prone quarterback. Both defenses have struggled this season but Dallas is certainly the lesser defense. However, Dallas is sitting with plenty of strong skill position players. Dallas should take the win here and the small spread gives me more confidence.

BAL @ PIT

These are certainly two teams heading in opposite directions this season, as Pittsburgh are the only undefeated team left and Baltimore has struggled offensively. They are also the team that caused this push back with plenty of names potentially out. Pittsburgh continues to make the most sense here and are dominating on both sides of the ball. I can't see Baltimore finding their form this week.

LV @ ATL

Las Vegas travels to Atlanta after a tough loss against the Chiefs. Atlanta laid a dud on offense after the bye week and this defense let Taysom Hill have a field day. Julio Jones is a game-time decision and Matt Ryan has not played well with him off the field. The Raiders are one of the more improved teams on the season and Atlanta is just a team I don't trust down the stretch to be ultra competitive.

ARI @ NE

This feels like an odd game for the Cardinals who are still a young team that can struggle in these spots. Kliff Kingsbury is also someone I am not a fan of given the play calling at times this season. New England's defense has fallen off from last year and if the Cardinals can jump to a lead, it is hard to see this group being able to put up points in bunches. Murray will have to be careful with the turnovers this week but the Cardinals are the better team.

NYG @ CIN

With Joe Burrow out, this Cincinnati team is now in shambles. The offensive line has collapsed all season long but Burrow was masking that most weeks. Joe Mixon remains out and Brandon Allen will make the start. The Giants are coming off a bye and are in the thick of the NFC East and need a win. New York's defense isn't bad and Daniel Jones can do well against a weaker defense.

CLE @ JAX

While Cleveland won't have any weather to aid their defense this week they do face Mike Glennon. The Browns are touchdown favorites and face a bad Jacksonville defense. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can dominate this game on the ground. This feels like a weird one as the Browns really haven't had an even game in a while and Denzel Ward out hurts their pass defense.

CAR @ MIN

Carolina and Minnesota are two intriguing teams this season because they have better potential than what their record shows. The Vikings are slight favorites here but hard to really trust them after a loss against the Cowboys. This has sneaky back and forth potential to where I like the over more than I do picking the spreads of either of these teams. The passing games can be mismatches against both secondaries.

TEN @ IND

We saw this matchup a few weeks ago where the Colts took care of business and both teams are coming off big wins this week. These two are the AFC South favorites and the Colts are favorites this week as expected. The Colts defense has been an x-factor most weeks but will have their hands full. The Titans defense on the other hand is closer to being a bottom ten one and Indy gets the bump for me.

LAC @ BUF

This is one of the more exciting games of the week with the Chargers facing the Bills. Justin Herbert is on a historic pace for a rookie and Josh Allen has taken a major step forward this year. We also get to see a couple of thriving wide receivers with Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs. I like the Bills to cover here but I like the over as well with these two offenses clicking and the defenses not being as good as expected this season.

MIA @ NYJ

Miami failed to take care of business on the road last week and they travel to the Jets, who are certainly a lesser team. Miami is a far better team and I expect them to bounce back this week. However, Joe Flacco has at least made this offense competent enough for a potential cover. That was the case last week, so I am a bit concerned here and would find other games.

NO @ DEN

We are now onto the second week of the Taysom Hill experiment. New Orleans are large favorites this week and I don't love that for betting on the spread. Denver has been decent at covering the spread this week because Drew Lock is delivering late in garbage time to pull games close. If Hill has struggles this week, this is going to be a tight game, but I think the over is actually the play here as the Saints secondary isn't one I trust.

SF @ LAR

The 49ers are coming off a late week bye and the Rams won a close game against the Bucs. This feels like a trap game for the Rams as the 49ers are starting to get some skill position players back. Jared Goff is also a walking magic eight ball where you don't know what you are going to get. I am staying away from this one, as I think Nick Mullens is actually a better option for San Francisco than Jimmy Garoppolo.

KC @ TB

Whenever you can get the Chiefs at this type of spread you gotta take it. Tom Brady is not someone built to face some pressure and the Chiefs can bring it. Kansas City will also air it out and beat them with Mahomes and a strong receiving core. The Tampa secondary is easier to attack compared to run defense. Chiefs all day as they are the best team in the league and superior to any NFC team by a large margin.

CHI @ GB

Green Bay is back at home after an overtime loss against the Colts. They are large favorites against the Bears, which isn't that surprising given the Bears offense is atrocious. The only thing that can save the Bears is the defense just playing a lights out game but the Packers are back at full health and I can't see that happening.

SEA @ PHI

Seattle has played well for the most part this season even with their recent hiccups. Philadelphia on the other hand has been awful most of the year and Carson Wentz has not looked good under center. While Seattle has struggled against the pass, I wonder if he see a tighter game from them and get back to the run game with Chris Carson as the Eagles defense has been beatable a bit of late.



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