NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Welcome back to another edition of our NFL best bets column.
I’ve written two of these articles so far, one in Week 2 and one in Week 4, and eight of my nine picks have gotten to the window.
This is a disgusting week of NFL action, and one of my least favorite slates we’ve had yet. However, there’s still plenty of value to be found, and I’ve identified four bets I love in Week 6.
I cover the full Sunday slate in this article, including two of the early games, one of the afternoon games, and the Sunday Night Football game.
So, read on and check out my four favorite bets for this Sunday’s NFL action.
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings) vs. Washington Football Team
- 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday
- FedEx Field, Landover, MD
It’s time to buy back on the Chiefs.
The Football Team was supposed to be this elite defense, and they would cruise to the NFC East title because of it. However, the Football Team is a liability, specifically in the passing game.
Washington’s defense ranks 29th in passing defense DVOA and 30th in PFF’s coverage grades. They’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to carve them up for almost 1,500 yards on a 65% completion rate, with a 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Behind their pathetic secondary, the Football team is allowing a whopping 31 points per game this season.
For all the struggles the Chiefs have had, they are still the best offense in the league, ranking first in offensive DVOA. Patrick Mahomes has already thrown for 16 touchdowns this season, completing almost 70% of his passes.
Andy Reid and Mahomes are going to carve up this fraudulent Washington defense. And while Taylor Heinicke has had his moments this season, his play has dropped off in recent weeks, and I don’t trust him to cover this number.
All-in-all, I think the Football Team is slightly overvalued, and I believe the Chiefs are undervalued following their pathetic start.
Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals under 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
This total has been bet down from 48.5 by sharps, and I’ve seen projections for this total in the 45-46 range.
I’ll trust the money and the projections here.
Neither Cincinnati nor Detroit hit this total in their past three games. Moreover, these teams are a combined 7-3 to the under this season.
While the Lions rank 12th in plays per game, they also rank 25th in offensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bengals may rank 16th in offensive DVOA, but they also rank 29th in plays per game.
These are two teams that enjoy mucking it up, and I believe there’s a lot of ways for this under to hit. I’ll happily lay my money at under 47 or better.
New England Patriots +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
The Cowboys’ defense is fraudulent.
They lead the league in interceptions, but Trevon Diggs’ turnover luck is going to regress eventually. And behind him is a defense that’s allowed the eighth-most yards and the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season.
Meanwhile, the Patriots drop back at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (65.6%), and Mac Jones has looked great with his limited opportunities. I think the Patriots have a great chance to put together long, sustained drives, and keep the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands.
Meanwhile, when the ball is in Prescott’s hands, he’s going up against a physical, elite Patriots secondary looking to bounce back after a pathetic showing in Houston.
This line was hovering around Dallas -4.5, but the sharps pushed it down to -3.5. I always love betting a home underdog, and especially one that the smart money is backing. I’ll take the Patriots at the points at Gillette on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
- Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
I’m sure everybody is very high on Geno Smith after his showing in the second half last week. However, how is going to hold up against an elite defense that’s had all week to prepare for him?
My guess: Smith won’t hold up at all.
This is a Steelers team that ranks fifth in PFF’s pressure grades and third in PFF’s rush defense grades. Plus, they dominate the trenches without sending extra men, as they blitz at the sixth-lowest rate but get pressure at the sixth-highest rate (per Pro-Football-Reference).
Smith is going to have a very tough time against this defense on primetime, especially after going just 2-for-8 with an interception under pressure last week against the Rams.
Big Ben looks completely washed up, but so does the Seattle defense, which ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and 25th in PFF’s coverage grades. The Steelers will be able to move the ball enough to cover this number.