NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are already into Week 6 and there are a few teams on bye. The Chargers, Raiders, Saints, and Seahawks are all off, and at the moment there will be no other changes to the schedule. Denver and New England got pushed back this week and the Chiefs/Bills game was pushed to Monday Night Football creating another double-header. Which personally, I am all for these Monday doubleheaders. Looking at Week 6 there were a few spreads that popped out at me. The Colts being over a touchdown favorite given the injuries and current play from Philip Rivers was a bit surprising. Miami is a monster favorite, and while the Jets are by far the worst team in the league, I cannot think of the last time Miami was more than a touchdown favorite.
Week 6 Games
|Texans @ Titans||TEN -2|
|Bengals @ Colts||IND -7.5||46.5|
|Falcons @ Vikings||MIN -3.5||54.5|
|Broncos @ Patriots||NE -9||45.5|
|Washington @ Giants||NYG -3||43|
|Ravens @ Eagles||BAL -7.5||46.5|
|Browns @ Steelers||PIT -3.5||51|
|Bears @ Panthers||CAR -2.5||44|
|Lions @ Jaguars||DET -3.5||54|
|Jets @ Dolphins||MIA -8.5||48|
|Packers @ Buccaneers||GB -1.5||54.5|
|Rams @ 49ers||LAR -3.5||50.5|
|Chiefs @ Bills|
|Cardinals @ Cowboys||ARI -2.5||54.5|
HOU @ TEN
The last few weeks have been extremely rocky for Tennessee with their schedule over the last few weeks. They still need to play against Buffalo on Tuesday and will welcome Houston in Week 6. The Texans were a team expected to challenge in the AFC South and while that could be possible, their offensive line and defense has not been up to par. As for the Titans, we will see how they react after a strong start to the season but a tough few weeks of not practicing and having an abnormal schedule. Tennessee are two-point favorites, but that might change later in the week.
CIN @ IND
There are a few teams I feel that are overvalued, and Indianapolis is one of them. The defense looks better than expected, partially because they have had the luxury of facing some bottom ten offenses to start the season. While Cincinnati is not a top offense they have shown to be able to move the ball and have a good set of playmakers. Joe Burrow is also doing a great job given the fact his offensive line is giving him very little protection. The Bengals being +7.5 is intriguing as I can see this one being a close one. Cincinnati's defense ranks in the bottom ten, but this Colts offense just isn't built to beat teams by a few scores.
ATL @ MIN
Both teams have combined for a 1-9 record in this game and have done it in a similar fashion. The defenses need a complete revamp while the offenses have been extremely inconsistent. Minnesota also had an Atlanta-like collapse against Seattle where they were well in control for most of the game. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS this season and their margin of losses have been by over a touchdown. Dalvin Cook is unlikely to play this week, although that doesn't change much for me as Alexander Mattison has proven he can step right in and produce big numbers. Minnesota is 3-2 ATS this season and I do like them to cover this week.
DEN @ NE
New England hasn't been their dominant self and that wasn't to be expected. This was a game that should have happened last week and a lot changes with it being pushed up to Week 6. Drew Lock and Cam Newton now are fully expected to be the starters where that was unclear for Week 5. New England is 2-2 ATS this season and Denver is 3-1, as they have lost a ton of close games. The line reflects Cam Newton being back under center as they are nine point favorites. This is till a bit too high for my liking but I don't exactly trust Denver to cover either.
WAS @ NYG
There are not many NFC East games I want to continue watching, but especially this one. The over/under is set at 43 and the Giants are favored by -3. Daniel Jones has not been someone to trust in any sort of game, let alone where the Giants are favored. As for Washington, the offensive line continues to be in shambles and they have now played three quarterbacks in the last two games. I expect this to be a low scoring affair with a lot of sloppy football being played. However, I like Washington's defense a bit more and the Giants offensive line has been just as bad. Washington should be able to cover, and even pull off a road win.
BAL @ PHI
While the Ravens are 4-1 this season they have not been as convincing on the offensive side compared to last season. The under has also been a huge hit for them at 4-1 and I could see the under hitting again. Baltimore's defense continues to play lights out football, and the Philadelphia offense just isn't getting it done. The Eagles are also 1-4 ATS. This Philadelphia team is just flat out bad from top to bottom and it will be tough for them to contend against one of the league's best, even at home. I would certainly buy a half point if possible or see if you can find this at -6.5 or -7.
CLE @ PIT
The over/under of 51 was a bit high for me on this one, although given the amount of overs this year it isn't a surprise to see oddsmakers start to jack up the totals. This is certainly a test of opinions because the Browns offense has been playing well, but against lesser defenses. They will now face a top three defense this week that matches up really well with them. It is a great spot for Pittsburgh this week to put their mark on who is really challenging for the AFC North title. I am actually glad this one game in a bit lower than expected as Pittsburgh could have been 4.5 or 5.5 point favorites this week.
CHI @ CAR
Carolina was one that stuck out to me this week because they have played very well to start the season and could have been a 4-1 team. Chicago on the other hand are an overrated 4-1 team. Chicago's defense is the only thing that can come away with a win this week as the offense continues to perform at a subpar level for most of the game. I like the Panthers offense quite a bit here. Public money here is on the Chicago spread and the over. I do like the over here but I like the Panthers to cover.
NYJ @ MIA
You know how you know you are the worst team in the league? You are eight point dogs against the Dolphins and the public is hammering the Dolphins spread. The Jets have failed to cover a single spread this season and their average margin of loss is 17.2. Miami is 3-2 ATS this season and they are coming off a game where they destroyed the 49ers. I weirdly agree with the public here that Miami can put up another big performance against the Jets. The state of that team is just in complete shambles.
GB @ TB
This is by far the most exciting game on the Sunday slate as the Packers take on the Buccaneers. The Packers have dominated this season at 4-0 but are also 4-0 ATS. Tampa is 2-3 ATS but 3-2 on the season. Green Bay is averaging 38 points per game so far this season while Tampa is averaging 27.8. This is going to be interesting because Tampa has been terrific against the run over the past season and a half, while Green Bay will need the ground game to thrive still. I still trust Green Bay to cover in this one but we might actually see a shocking under. Green Bay's defense is capable of shutting down the Tampa Bay weapons.
LAR @ SF
These two teams are at completely different stages from where they were last season at this time. San Francisco's defense is essentially all out on IR and the offense has been going through quarterback struggles. While some was injury related, Jimmy Garoppolo was benched this past week. Give me the Rams here, I am not expecting a bounce back week from San Francisco, and the Rams defense is way too good. Aaron Donald will be a problem again for another weak offensive line.
KC @ BUF
This is one of the most exciting games on the slate as the Bills will welcome the Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off of a tough loss against the Raiders and are just three-point favorites against the Bills. While I like what Buffalo has done, an empty Buffalo stadium against the Chiefs isn't as much of a home advantage as what it could have been. I do like the over here as both offenses should smash in this one, but the Chiefs are a team that should cover the spread.
ARI @ DAL
An over/under of 54.5 was set this week with two teams that have struggled defensively but offensively have put up a ton of points. The Dak Prescott injury does change some things, but Andy Dalton is fully capable of leading this offense given the amount of weapons around him. Arizona has not played all that well offensively and Kyler Murray is turning the ball over way too much. I like the Cowboys to rally around last week's events and play well this week. I am a big fan of the over here two as both defenses should allow a ton of points.
NFL Week 6 FAQ
How Can I Bet On Football?
If you are a resident within one of these states: NY, NJ, PA, NH, PA, RI, WV, OR, IN, IA, NV, AR, DE, MS, NM, you can legally bet on the NFL. Sportsbooks are available, and some of them also offer mobile betting.
What Are Opening Lines?
Opening lines are the very first lines put out to the public by oddsmakers. They are put out early, and then adjustments will be made. Getting in on opening lines is where bettors can have an advantage before the lines change.
When Does Week 6 Start?
Week 6 starts on October 18th, 2020. There is no Thursday night game this week as the NFL has shuffled around scheduling due to postponements of games.
What Is A Game Total?
A total set for a game is the set number. You can bet the over or under on for total points. If a game is set at 54.5, you can bet either over or under the total combined points between the two teams.
Why Do Lines Change?
Lines can change for various reasons. If there is an injury leading up to the game that has a major effect on the potential outcome, the line will adjust based on the news. Weather is another reason why it can change.