NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Last week was the public’s revenge, as all seven favorites covered in the 1 p.m. ET window. The books were crushed, and sharps finally had a tough day after cashing in on underdogs for five straight weeks.

We all expected regression, but maybe not this quickly. The question is: Can the favorites do it again?

Well, in this edition of DFC’s NFL Best Bets column, I see two favorites I’d like to target on Sunday afternoon. Moreover, I’ve included a road dog and an under.

All four of these picks will take place at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, so make sure you get your bets in early and turn on Red Zone.

Let’s have a weekend!

New York Jets at New England Patriots Under 42.5 (-110)

- 1 p.m. ET Sunday

- Gillette Stadium Foxborough, MA

Nothing better than a Jets-Patriots under, which has hit in seven of the team’s last 10 meetings, including in Week 2 of this season.

While the Jets feature a horrendous secondary, the Patriots feature a slow-moving, methodical offense that prefers not to push the ball down the field. Plus, New England is still working with a patched-together offensive line, further hindering their offensive ability.

Meanwhile, Zach Wilson is back for another game against the New England secondary that picked him off four times in Week 2.

I’d expect more of the same for Wilson this Sunday, who should face a New England defense hungry to bounce back after two lackluster performances.

This total opened at 43 but dropped to 42.5 despite most of the tickets and money being on the over. We characterize that as reverse line movement, and it’s a signal worth tailing.

Just try and get this line before it moves to 42.

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 at Tennessee Titans

- 1 p.m. ET Sunday

- Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN

After backing the Chiefs last week, we’re once again buying back in on them.

The Washington secondary is atrocious, and the Football Team currently has one of the worst defenses in the league. However, Tennessee is almost as bad, and opposing quarterbacks have shredded the Titans this season.

The Chiefs also have a bottom-dweller defense, but they back it up with the best offense in the league. So, in a battle between two awful defenses, bet the better offense.

Apart from that amazing upset over Buffalo, Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been his usual self in recent weeks. And I wouldn’t expect Derrick Henry to keep up with Mahomes.

As such, I’ll be backing Kansas City to cover this number in a shootout. Personally, I think the Chiefs win by seven, so I’m playing this line up to -6.5.

Carolina Panthers -3 at New York Giants

- 1 p.m. ET Sunday

- MetLife Stadium, Rutherford, NJ

The Giants are banged up and led by a quarterback that’s 4-12 ATS as a starter at MetLife in his career. Daniel Jones is, surprisingly, a much worse quarterback in Rutherford than he is anywhere else.

As such, I’m ready to back the Carolina pass defense, which has been a strong unit so far this season. The Panthers rank fifth in PFF’s coverage grades and fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rates – both stats that don’t bode well for Jones.

Under pressure this season, Jones is completing just 54.4% of his passes for 6.1 yards per attempt while making two Big Time Throws to three Turnover Worthy Plays.

When Jones is blitzed, he becomes even more turnover-prone. And Carolina blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league (34.1%), mostly because Matt Rhule’s cornerbacks have been so good he can afford to dial it up and send extra men.

Sam Darnold and the offense aren’t good, but they won’t have to light it up to cover this number. I’d bet the Panthers up to -4.

Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens

- 1 p.m. ET Sunday

- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD

The Ravens have been playing some excellent football. Most recently, Baltimore rocked the loaded Chargers to the tune of 34-6.

That just means it’s time to sell high on the Ravens.

This line is an overreaction. 6.5 points is a ton of points in the NFL, but especially for a Bengals team that’s been excellent on defense. Cincinnati boasts a top-five defense via Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, a top-six scoring defense, and a top-four defense in rushing EPA per play. That’s a great formula against a rush-heavy Ravens team.

With a great defense and Joe Burrow under center, the Bengals like to muck these games up. Four of the Bengals’ first six games have been decided by a field goal or less, and there’s a very high chance Cinci keeps this game within a field goal.

Let’s also not forget how banged up the Ravens are, as their top four running backs are currently on the injury list.

If I’m catching six or more with the Bengals, I’m happily betting that.

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