NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Colts (-2.5) vs Titans
After losing money for the third consecutive week, this is a signature “get right” week for the Vegas sports books. The Titans come into this one riding high off two big, emotional wins against the Chiefs and Bills, currying a lot of public favor in the process. Though on the surface it seems like the Titans should be favored in this one, the Colts at -2.5 are 100 percent the sharp side. The Colts have owned the Titans historically, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings, even with average-to-below average quarterback play in many of those games. Layer in that the Colts season rides on this game — a loss puts them at 3-5 with no chance at the tiebreaker in division — and you can expect Frank Reich to pull no punches in this one. The fact of the matter is, this Colts team, who outplayed the Ravens two weeks ago, isn’t as bad as their record says while this Titans team, who benefited greatly from a missed field goal in Seattle and a Josh Allen slip, isn’t quite as good as their record says.
Jaguars (+3.5) at Seattle
This is an ugly one, but the Jags are the side to be on. As much as Urban Meyer has fumbled the bag on a PR level as an NFL coach, the team appears to be getting better with each game and is significantly undervalued heading into this week. They led the Cardinals at halftime in week 3, had Cincinnati on the ropes in Cincy a few weeks ago, and just picked up their first win of the season in London last week. Meanwhile, this Seahawks organization has slowly fallen into disarray. Geno Smith continues to make baffling decisions with two costly turnovers in three games, and the defense is straight up bad, ranking second worst in the NFL in yards per game. With the hook over three points here, I like the Jags to cover in a low scoring affair.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) vs Cleveland
As an underdog against a team with an equal-or-better record past week 3, Mike Tomlin teams are an astounding 28-7-1 against the spread. Cleveland’s greatest strength right now is their offensive line and the rushing attack it supports. What’s the one thing the Steelers are excellent at right now? Getting after quarterbacks and slowing teams down in the running game. With Kareem Hunt sidelined and Nick Chubb still nursing a calf injury, the Steelers will have a much easier time slowing down the Browns — giving their jurassic offense the breathing room it desperately needs. In a divisional matchup that the Steelers have owned historically, three points is simply too much to give up. In another low scoring affair, I love the Steelers to cover and possibly win outright.
Chiefs (-9.5) vs NYG
The one consistent thing about the Chiefs this season has been their ability to dismantle teams from the NFC East. Similar to the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles, this New York Giants squad has some players on defense, but no one capable of slowing down the firepower of the Chiefs. Despite their record, this is still an elite Chiefs offense that is going to put up points and the onus is going to fall on Daniel Jones to keep pace. For a Chiefs defense that has struggled to get after the quarterback all season, this Giants team is a perfect matchup. With the second lowest rated offensive line in football right now, the Giants are going to have their hands full putting up points on the road in primetime. The only thing standing in the way of the Chiefs in this game is themselves, and, if they don’t turn the ball over, I like them in a landslide.
Saints (+4.5) vs Buccaneers
The difference between playing at home and on the road for this Buccaneers team this season is night and day. At home, they’ve looked unstoppable, winning by an average of 22 points a game. On the road, however, the last three outings include squeaking out a win against a weak Patriots roster, failing to cover against an erratic Eagles team, and losing by 10 to the Rams. Sean Payton and the Saints organization has had this team’s number historically, sweeping them in the regular season last year and winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. Between Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams, the Saints have the personnel in the defensive backfield to hang with some of Tampa’s offensive weapons. I like both teams to score in the mid to upper twenties in this one, in a game that will be decided by a field goal or less.