Week 9 NFL Lines & Odds: Matchup Predictions

Week 9 is already looking better given that weather isn't going to have an effect on half the games like last week. We also have a lot of close games and enticing matchups across the board. There are a few looming blowouts projected like Kansas City and Pittsburgh. There are once again an immense amount of totals over 50 with eight games. Some of the most eye-catching lines this week are the Baltimore Ravens sitting as 2.5 point favorites against the Colts. Baltimore has had a tough stretch, but the Colts have beaten up on lesser opponents. I am not sold on this group, especially Philip Rivers. The other is the Cardinals as four-point favorites at home with a rookie quarterback making the second start. The defense won't have the day it did against the Rams to help out.

GB @ SF

In two of the last three games the Packers have failed to show up. They are also dealing with their top two running backs out, although the 49ers are missing about half their offense as this point. George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Deebo Samuel will be out this week and for most of the next few weeks. The Packers should be able to control this game still, although Nick Mullens has shown to move the ball a bit better than Jimmy Garoppolo at times. If San Francisco has any shot at this game it will be throwing the kitchen sink at Davante Adams. The 50.5 is the more surprising number for me here. The 49ers offense has been hit hard with injuries, and their defense has still limited offenses this season despite their injuries.

DEN @ ATL

Denver is 5-2 ATS this season and has had some very close losses against the best teams in the league. They are not a team to be slept on. Atlanta will miss Calvin Ridley this week but still have one of the better passing attacks in football. Denver has a chance to put up some numbers this week. They have gotten a bit healthier on the offensive side with Fant and Hamler back, and there is a good chance Tim Patrick is back this week as well. Against this Atlanta secondary, they should be able to keep pace. Atlanta is 3-5 ATS this season and not a team I can trust.

SEA @ BUF

I believe this is one of those games that would be different in a normal Buffalo environment. But it is still a road game in Buffalo. Seattle is the favorites, and this likely has something to do with the Bills struggling a bit over their last few games. However, this Seattle secondary continues to struggle, and I expect the combination of Allen-Diggs-Brown to put up numbers. I like this group to match Seattle's offense, and this game is one where I like the over on despite these teams having some name value for being good defenses over the years.

CHI @ TEN

Tennessee is coming off a bad loss to Cincinnati and now have lost two in a row. They will get the Bears this week, who are struggling against the better opponents of the NFL. Oddsmakers are expecting the Titans to bounce back as they are near touchdown favorites at home. This is a bit odd given they just struggled to move the ball against the Bengals defense, and the Bears have played tight games all year long with their defense being inside the top ten. Even with the Bears offense being slow-moving, I still expect this to be a close one and for them to cover.

BAL @ IND

As mentioned above, this is a game that stood out to me. I fully expect the Ravens to win this week and cover a modest 2.5 point spread. Baltimore's defense is going to be a problem for Philip Rivers and this lackluster group of skill position players around him. Lamar Jackson gets a defense that hardly blitzes, and this bodes well for him. I expect Jackson to have a better week and Baltimore to pull ahead on this one.

CAR @ KC

Patrick Mahomes put on a show last week, and we should buckle up for the second half because he is going to put up some wild numbers against some of the defenses remaining on his schedule. The Chiefs are 11 point favorites this week, and while I like this Panthers group, the Chiefs will be too much for this young defense. They will also be able to run the ball well against one of the poorer run defenses in the league. Carolina has an offense capable of putting up some numbers on the right week, but I find the Chiefs will be too much for them to cover.

DET @ MIN

Minnesota and Detroit both play in the bottom third of the league in plays per game this season. The Lions and Vikings both should go heavily on the ground in this one, and I don't really find the over/under to be reflective of that. With two teams that you never know which one is going to show up, I rather bank on both offenses having lackluster days through the air and just hammering the opposing run defenses that have both struggled this season. Minnesota is running the ball 49% of the time this season, and I expect that to be the case this week.

NYG @ WSH

These NFC East games are brutal to try and figure out, but Washington and New York have done a solid job at covering the spread. Now they face each other for the second time in a few weeks. It was a -1.5 spread for the Giants with a 42 over/under. The under hit, and the Giants won 20-19. These two teams are pretty even, both averaging under 20 points per game on the offensive side, have horrid quarterback play, and respectable defenses. New York has taken the last three meetings by an average score of 28-19.

HOU @ JAX

Houston are touchdown favorites in this one, and with the Jaguars rolling out a quarterback for his first start ever in the absence of Gardner Minshew, I am banking on Houston running away with this one. Deshaun Watson keeps his leading man Will Fuller despite the trade rumors. Defensively they have not been good this season, but a matchup here with this group can help that. I also look at them over and find it to be a bit too high. This has more to do with the Jaguars offense hitting a snag this week where the Texans will put up their numbers, but Jacksonville is going to need to hit three touchdowns for the over to hit if Houston scores 30 still.

LV @ LAC

The Chargers have blown games in an Atlanta-like fashion this season and deserve far better than their 2-5 record suggests. The Chargers have been underdogs in most of those games with the spread and have still resulted in a 5-2 record ATS. The Raiders are 4-3 on the season as both teams have certainly played solid football this season. This one comes down defensively for me, and I find the Chargers defense will be better about holding off this Raiders offense. Las Vegas' defense has struggled most of the season, and the Chargers are putting up big numbers with Herbert under center.

PIT @ DAL

With Andy Dalton ruled out this week, now due to covid, the Cowboys offense will have to face the number one defense in the league. This is a recipe for disaster, and it has led to the Steelers being two-touchdown favorites on the road. Dallas is also dealing with offensive line issues, and with Pittsburgh at full health, they have a lot of weapons to put up big numbers against this group. Generally, I stay away from spreads this large, but Pittsburgh is just overwhelmingly a better team right now.

MIA @ ARI

Arizona will welcome Tua and the Dolphins this week, who just lost Myles Gaskin to an MCL injury. This is a blow to the rushing attack but also a reliable weapon out of the backfield in the passing game. This was another spread that caught my eye when it was first released as Arizona has a chance for six wins and at home against a rookie quarterback. Tua didn't have to do much this week with the defense and special teams taking over. He will face a pretty good pass rush and a defense that has had its moments this season. Arizona's offense should fire away against this defense and cover the spread.

NO @ TB

This is the second time these two teams have faced this season, as both teams looked like they had 40-year-old quarterbacks in the first meeting. The Buccaneers struggled for a majority of the game this week against the Giants, and both teams have a major wide receiver questionable for this week. Given the Buccaneers can keep Alvin Kamara in check on the ground, it will be tough to do in the passing game. Public money is on the Buccaneers covering here, but I am not too sure given the Saints to have been grinding out games, and this Buccaneers team has shown inconsistencies at a time on the offensive side.

NE @ NYJ

The Patriots are 9-1 against the Jets in the last ten games, but just 5-4-1 ATS. The under has hit in seven of the last ten as these two offenses have been dreadful this season. This is definitely not an entertaining game to finish up the week. Any other year I'd bank on the Patriots covering here, but it just doesn't feel right given the Pats are now 2-5 and look like a team with no interest in winning games. It would also be comical for the Patriots to try and allow the Jets to get a win under their belt as we move into draft order positioning.

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