Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Divisional Round

Elite Plays

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

The Steelers allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers during the regular season. The Broncos wide outs already torched Pittsburgh's secondary once this year in Week 15 with Brock Osweiler starting at quarterback. Emmanuel Sanders was the star wide receiver in that game catching 10 of 16 targets for 181 yards receiving and a touchdown. His outburst and lower salary should net him an ownership rate that's at least equal to that of Thomas, and while he's a strong play in his own right, I prefer DT. Thomas was no slouch against Pittsburgh and caught five of 12 targets for 61 yards and a pair of scores. Peyton Manning's arm strength is lackluster, and DT is one of the best receivers in the game after the catch. That alone bumps Thomas above Sanders in my evaluation.

There's another reason to like Thomas better, though. Pro Football Focus (PFF) projects Sanders to draw William Gay in coverage. PFF graded Gay as the 39th best cornerback in the league this year. DT gets a much more favorable matchup with Antwon Blake. Blake graded out 115th at the cornerback position. From just a coverage standpoint, PFF graded Blake as the eighth worst cornerback. That's a dream matchup for Thomas. According to Football Outsiders (FO), Pittsburgh ranked 27th defending number-one receivers. Get plenty of shares of DT in cash games and GPPs this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,100

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 30-40%

DraftKings - $7,000

Cash: 45-55%

GPP: 35-45%

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

Josh Norman is in the discussion for top cover cornerback in the NFL, but Doug Baldwin isn't your typical number-one receiver. Baldwin plays the bulk of his snaps from the slot as opposed to lined up outside. That means one of two things should happen this weekend. One possibility is that Norman doesn't shadow Baldwin for the entirety of the game and instead takes away blossoming rookie wide out Tyler Lockett on the outside. The other possibility is that Norman moves into the slot to shadow Baldwin frequently. However, defending a receiver from the slot is a different animal than defending an outside receiver with the aid of the sideline as something of an extra defender. With the full field to work with, Norman's task would be more difficult defending Baldwin from the slot. Either scenario keeps Baldwin ranked among the elite wide outs for me this week. PFF's matchup grades shows Cortland Finnegan defending Baldwin from the slot, and Finnegan nets a below average starter grade.

The top wide out for the Seahawks caught at least one touchdown in six of the team's last eight regular season games, and he picked up where he left off at the end of the year nabbing a touchdown grab in the Wild Card Round. Since the team's Week 9 bye, Baldwin has caught five or more passes in eight of nine games and bested 40 yards receiving in each game. The 40 yard receiving threshold isn't exactly attention grabbing, but coupled with his nose for the end zone, it sets the floor quite high for the Stanford product. He's also not a bank-breaking investment at under $7,000 on DraftKings and checking in outside the top-five priced wide receivers at FanDuel.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,400

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $6,800

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

Value Plays

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver, but it was Michael Floyd who often emerged as the top dog down the stretch. He bested 100 yards receiving for his first time in 2015 in Week 8, just before the team's bye week. He would go on to best 100 yards receiving four more times in his last eight games played. He was awful in the Week 17 blowout loss to the Seahawks, but the offense as a whole was, so he should be awarded a pass. Against Green Bay in Week 16, Floyd battered their secondary for six receptions for 111 yards receiving.

If you view Floyd as the new number-one receiver for the Cardinals, it's worth noting that the Packers ranked 22nd defending number-one receivers during the regular season, per FO. Sam Shields is in the NFL's concussion protocol, but if he's cleared for this weekend's game, PFF projects him to defend John Brown leaving the worst of their nickel corners, Damarious Randall, matched up with Floyd. Randall ranked 59th at cornerback, according to PFF. The rookie cornerback checks in at 5-foot-11 and 196 pounds. He cedes four inches and 24 pounds to Floyd. The size disparity could make Floyd a great red-zone target for Carson Palmer. Floyd is one of my favorite wide receiver selections at any price point, and I'll comfortable use him in all game types.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,500

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $5,400

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

Julian Edelman is trending in the right direction to play this weekend. His return would provide the Patriots a needed boost in the passing attack. Yes, it would bump Danny Amendola down the pass-catching pecking order, but a New England offense that's capable of moving the ball raises all ships in the passing attack. Gamers who use Amendola can also take solace in the fact two of his best games during the regular season were produced with Edelman healthy. In Week 6 the former Ram caught seven passes for 105 yards and in Week 7 he caught eight for 86 yards and a score, so we've seen the two play well together.

Amendola isn't a big touchdown threat. He caught just three this year and has 13 touchdown receptions in 84 games played (34 starts). The slot wide out is a reliable pass catcher who allows Tom Brady to treat the short passing game as an alternative to running the ball. Amendola caught five or more passes in seven of 14 games this year, and his value is a bit greater at DraftKings than at FanDuel thanks to the full-point PPR scoring at the former. He's still a solid play at FanDuel, though, and the salary relief he provides at both sites has a great deal of value as well.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,200

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $5,500

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

GPP Plays

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald checks in as the fifth most expensive wide receiver at DraftKings and the third most expensive wide receiver at FanDuel. Being priced near the top of the heap, and ahead of Emmanuel Sanders on both sites, should suppress his ownership a bit. His pedestrian numbers down the stretch and the emergence of Floyd as arguably the number-one receiver for the Cardinals should also depress his ownership a bit. That's perfect for GPPs.

At 32-years old, Fitz likely benefited more than his receiver teammates from the bye week and some extra rest. In the last five games of the year, Fitz's high-water mark for receiving yards was 55 (Week 13 and Week 17). That said, he did end the year on a two-game touchdown streak, and he caught five or more passes in 13 of 16 games. Like Floyd, he has a big size advantage over the cornerback PFF projects him to draw in coverage. Casey Hayward ranked 21st at cornerback, per PFF, but he's just 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds, and Fitz towers over him at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds. The size advantage was exploited when these two teams met in Week 16, and Fitz hauled in a three-yard touchdown grab. The red zone will be an area Palmer will have his pick of receivers to play jump ball with, and Fitz is one of those receivers.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,900

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $6,500

GPP: 10-20%

Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers

Devin Funchess isn't even listed in the three-receiver set for Carolina on PFF. Instead, he's behind Ted Ginn Jr. (who is banged up, but the team is hopeful he'll play), Corey "Philly" Brown and Jerricho Cotchery. In Week 16, Funchess played just 15 offensive snaps and trailed the trio in snaps played. In Week 17, though, with Ginn Jr. out, he led the position with 54 offensive snaps played and made the most of the playing time leading the team in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and receiving yards (120) while catching a touchdown. Funchess rookie season got off to a slow start, but his production grew in the second half, and his PFF receiving grade sharply rose, too. He caught four of his five touchdown grabs in the last eight games of the year, and his other touchdown grab was caught in the last game of the first half of the season. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, he's a big red-zone target at the least. If Ginn Jr. is forced to miss this game, Funchess' floor is raised by a bump in playing time, but if Ginn Jr. plays, the rookie remains in play as a low-salary, low-owned touchdown threat.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,300

GPP: 0-10%

DraftKings - $3,400

GPP: 0-10%