Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 1

Elite Plays

Julio Jones (WR), Atlanta Falcons

Jones takes on the Eagles weak secondary this week and makes for my top play quite easily. There is always a ton of talk about the Eagles playing fast, but much less about how it also forces their opponents to play faster and thus, rack up more plays than they usually do. The Falcons were already expected to play pretty fast, so this becomes a dream matchup. New OC Kyle Shanahan has always forced the issue with his top wide receiver when running an offense, meaning Jones should be a target monster playing the X position. The Eagles have a solid No. 1 corner in Byron Maxwell, but Jones should move around the field enough to get plenty of looks against others.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 30-35%

GPP: 20-25%

DraftKings

Cash: 35-40%

GPP: 25-30%

Jordan Matthews (WR), Philadelphia Eagles

If you're already starting to see a pattern here, it's not just a coincidence. I'll be highlighting wide receivers both in high over/under games, and Eagles games all year, so expect to see a ton of Jordan Matthews in this column all year. Matthews had a breakout rookie year last season and expect the Eagles to use him a ton this year. Matthews played a ton out of the slot last year and we saw what Sam Bradford has done with guys with much less physical talent like Danny Amendola in that role in the past. This feels like a perfect match against a weak Falcons secondary.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 20-25%

Value Plays

Davante Adams (WR), Green Bay Packers

Adams is fully expected to be the most popular play of Week 1. He's taking over for Jordy Nelson in an explosive offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. There is very little not to like here at his price. He's not going to be Nelson, but if he can give us 70-80% of that this week, he's a steal and that certainly seems attainable. The Packers are a top-5 Vegas line for Week 1 and the Bears defense ranked in the bottom-5 against the pass last season with arguably a better group than they have heading into this season.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 30-40%

DraftKings

Cash: 50-60%

GPP: 35-45%

Stevie Johnson (WR), San Diego Chargers

Johnson has been a pretty quiet fantasy performer since his days in Buffalo, but he's emerged in a better situation than he's been in for quite a while. He joined San Diego as the third option at wideout, but quickly passed the aging Malcolm Floyd to become a starter. Philip Rivers values good route runners maybe more than any quarterback in the league and Johnson is just that. With Antonio Gates suspended, he will be looking for another consistent receiver to target after Keenan Allen and Johnson should emerge as that guy at a great price.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 10-20%

GPP Plays

John Brown (WR), Arizona Cardinals

Brown is being hyped as more than a GPP play some places and it's hard to argue with that, but I don't trust him to receive a massive amount of snaps or targets unless Michael Floyd sits out, which we won't know for sure until later in the week. However, Brown has shown immense chemistry with Carson Palmer and has been working all over the field in the preseason. We saw Brown put together some great outings last year that show off his upside. With both Keenan Lewis and Jarius Byrd already ruled out for the Saints, they'll be very thin in the secondary making this a dream play.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings

GPP: 15-25%

Charles Johnson (WR), Minnesota Vikings

With the return of Adrian Peterson, Johnson is likely to be overlooked quite a bit. The 49ers defense is a depleted unit after the loss of several key players on that side of the ball. Last year, they struggled to contain the pass giving up almost two touchdowns a game through the air, while they dominated the ground game. That likely won't happen this year, but their pass defense will remain weak. Johnson and Bridgewater will continue to have greater chemistry now that they are in the second year of Norv Turner's offense. Johnson has a ton of upside as both a PPR option and red-zone threat.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

GPP: 5-15%