Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 5

Elite Plays

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

Jones paces wide receivers in receptions with 38, and he's tied for the lead in receiving yards with 478. He's combined volume volume with efficiency. Jones has been targeted 48 times and leads receivers who've received 25% or more of their team's targets in yards per reception (YPRR) with 3.51, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). It's a scary combination, and it makes him the best fantasy receiver at the moment. He's priced like the best as the most expensive option at both sites, but a soft matchup with the Redskins secondary sans DeAngelo Hall provides him a cathedral high ceiling.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,200

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $9,200

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 25-35%

Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

Allen's sophomore slump is becoming a distant memory with each passing week. According to PFF, he's tied for fourth in targets (46) among wide receivers. He's turned his heavy usage into 33 receptions for 387 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Like Jones, his excellent start isn't simply a product of volume, it's also the product of efficiency. Allen ranks ninth with 2.43 YPRR. Both of the starting cornerbacks for the Steelers net a negative coverage score at PFF, and predictably, that means the Steelers rank poorly in pass coverage there (27th). Football Outsiders (FO) is less critical of their work and grades them 16th in pass defense. Both Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd left the Week 4 contest with injuries, and if either one or both are unable to suit up this weekend, Allen's usage could get a slight bump from its already silly level.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,700

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $7,200

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 15-25%

Value Plays

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs

Maclin opened the season with 109 yards receiving on nine receptions through the first two games of the year, and then it all clicked for him and Alex Smith. In Week 3, he went off for eight receptions for 141 yards receiving and a touchdown. Much of that production came in garbage time, but he impressively followed that game up with 11 receptions for 148 yards receiving in Week 4. Sticking with the theme for the first two highlighted receivers, he ranks well in targets and YPRR and has blended volume and efficiency brilliantly. The Bears have allowed just 759 yards passing through four games, but they've surrendered 10 touchdown passes while forcing just two interceptions. Chicago has also struggled to generate a pass rush with only six sacks, and that should keep Smith upright and airing it out the Chiefs' big offseason acquisition. His price is a value relative to his production at FanDuel, but it's an absolute steal at DraftKings.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,900

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $6,000

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars

On FanDuel, my preference is to pay the extra $200 to roster his teammate Allen Robinson, but on DraftKings, a $1,000 discount to spin down to Hurns is hard to pass up. Hurns didn't practice Wednesday, so his playing status will need to be monitored heading into the weekend. As long as he's healthy enough to play, the Bucs will have their hands full. Hurns leads the Jaguars in receptions (22) and is second in targets and receiving yards (314) while adding two touchdown grabs for good measure. The second-year wide out has been consistent besting 60 yards receiving in all four games this year, and he's totaled 186 yards and both of his touchdowns this year on 13 receptions over the last two weeks.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,100

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $4,500

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 10-20%

GPP Plays

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans has to be thrilled to no longer face a secondary featuring the top rated cover corner in the league this year, Josh Norman. Vincent Jackson gobbled up the bulk of the targets in Week 3 with 15, but Evans still garnered a reasonable amount of attention from Jameis Winston with eight targets. The Texas A&M product has been targeted 28 times in only three games. He's not performing at the level we saw in his rookie season, but last year he demonstrated he's a special talent. The Jaguars don't have a secondary capable of keeping Evans in check if Winston opts to throttle down his targets to V-Jax and look the second-year wide outs way more often this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,500

GPP: 0-10%

DraftKings - $6,100

GPP: 5-15%

Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles

The Saints pass defense is horrendous. PFF ranks them last in pass coverage and FO ranks them last in pass defense. They've yielded a league worst 8.8 net yards per pass attempt, according to Pro-Football Reference, and they've coughed up seven touchdowns while intercepting zero passes. Matthews is Sam Bradford's favorite pass catcher, and Bradford is coming off of his best game with Chip Kelly and the Eagles. Toss in the sizable over/under total and the Eagles status as betting favorites, and all arrows point upward for Matthews.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,800

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $6,400

GPP: 10-20%

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bryant is a DraftKings special since there are plenty of excellent alternatives in his price range at FanDuel. On DraftKings, though, his sub-$4,000 cap hit is absurdly low considering how dynamic Bryant was in his rookie season. Last year, he ranked third with 2.75 YPRR among wide out who received a minimum of 25% of their team's targets. Bryant is a height, weight and speed matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and he used his physical gifts masterfully last year. This season, he's yet to play a game due to a four-game suspension. Bryan isn't without risk since his snap count could be limited as he gets back into game shape, and he could have rust to shake off. However, he's worth the dice roll in GPPs at DK thanks to his likely low ownership, low cost and high ceiling that comes from his ability to make big plays and stand out in the red zone.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,100

GPP: < 3%

DraftKings - $3,800

GPP: 0-5%

Leonard Hankerson, Atlanta Falcons

Roddy White has been lost this season despite being on the field for more snaps than any other wide receiver for the Falcons, and Hankerson has surpassed him as the Matt Ryan's second favorite receiver. He's made the most of playing opposite Julio Jones and totaled 17 receptions for 241 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Last week, he broke the 100 yard threshold reeling in six passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. He offers a nice combination of size (6-foot-2 and 211 pounds) and speed (4.43 40-yard dash at the 2011 NFL Draft Combine) that makes him a deep threat. He failed to blossom in his time with the Redskins, and this week, he'll have an opportunity to stick it to his former employer. As I noted in Jones' write-up, the Redskins are a below average pass defense without their top cornerback. What I didn't note in his write-up is Ryan has a substantial home/road split for his career in which he's played much better at home. The entire offense gets a lift when Ryan is at home, and that includes Hankerson.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,000

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings - $4,000

GPP: 0-5%