Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 6

Elite Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Hopkins has blossomed into a full-blown stud at wide receiver this year in the absence of Andre Johnson. The Clemson product is the most targeted wide out in the game (75), and he's turned his looks into the second most receptions (42), the most receiving yards (578) and three touchdowns. It hasn't mattered who is under center for the Texans, Hopkins has been the focal point of the passing game. The change to Brian Hoyer should prove beneficial, though, as he's played considerably better than Ryan Mallett. Hopkins should be a staple of cash games rosters this week against a soft Jaguars pass defense that ranks 21st defending number-one wide receivers, per Football Outsiders (FO), and his sky-high ceiling makes him a strong GPP play too.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $8,500

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $7,700

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 20-30%

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

No team has a higher over/under total than the Patriots (32.5 points) this week, and investing in a monstrous total like that elevates your team's floor and ceiling. Tom Brady is playing football at arguably the highest level of his career, and there's no question who his top pass catching options are, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman (and to a lesser extent, Dion Lewis). The Colts rank 23rd defending number-one wide receivers, per FO, and they've been blasted for 286.8 yards passing allowed per game while surrendering eight touchdowns and tallying only six sacks. If Brady is allowed to stay upright -- and the lack of a pass rush from the Colts suggests he will -- he'll pick them apart, and Edelman will have a big hand Tom Terrific's success.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,900

Cash: 25-35%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $7,600

Cash: 30-35%

GPP: 25-35%

Value Plays

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars

You'll need to monitor Hurns' status entering the weekend since he's nicked up and didn't practice Wednesday, but the club took a cautious approach with him during practices last week, so it isn't that alarming just yet. The number-two wide out for the Jags is coming off of back-to-back 116 receiving yard efforts in which he reached the end zone. For the year, he leads his club in receptions (27) and receiving yards (430). He's reached or exceeded 60 yards receiving in all five games played, and he's reeled in four or more receptions in four of five games. Hurns has been both a model of consistency and a big-time fantasy point scorer. In addition to monitoring his health, though, you'll need to keep tabs on the health of starting quarterback Blake Bortles. Indications are that he'll give it a go this week, but if the club is forced to turn to Chad Henne, Hurns' stock takes a hit, and he'll only be a GPP dice roll at that point.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,500

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $5,000

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 0-10%

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens

Aiken has surprised this year emerging as the Ravens' number-two wide receiver behind Steve Smith Sr. In his second season with the Ravens, he's bested 75 yards receiving in three of five contests and played well in Smith's absence last week tallying four receptions for 78 yards receiving. He does, however, have a pair of duds on his resume this year with one game in which he caught one pass for negative one yard and another where he caught no passes. There's risk in using Aiken, but the matchup is dreamy and his price is right whether Smith returns this week or not. The 49ers rank 30th in pass defense at FO and 32nd in pass coverage at PFF. They also rank 28th defending number-two wide receivers and 29th defending number-one wide receivers, per FO. In other words, Aiken isn't going to draw a lock down corner if Smith is out again.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,000

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings - $4,300

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

GPP Plays

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

Beckham is being held out of practice on Thursday, but the Giants don't play until Monday night, so it may merely be precautionary and the club taking an opportunity to squeeze in an extra day of rest for the ailing wide receiver. Hamstrings can be tricky, but there doesn't seem to be a great deal of concern about OBJ's availability this week. As long as he remains on track to play this week, a showdown with the division rival Eagles creates a high ceiling for the second-year stud wide receiver. The Eagles rank 28th defending number-one receivers, according to FO, and oddsmakers project this game to be a shootout with a game over/under total of 49 points and a spread of just four points favoring the Eagles. Even in a season some are unfairly labeling disappointing from Beckham, he cracks the top-10 among wide receivers in receiving yards (428) and touchdown grabs (three) and ranks tied for 11th in receptions (31). He's far and away the top pass catching option for the Giants, and Eli Manning should reasonably be expected to target his number-one pass catcher 8-to-10 (or more) times.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,100

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $8,900

GPP: 20-30%

Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

Allen isn't a sure-thing, and the return of Antonio Gates in Week 5 relegated the third-year wide receiver to second fiddle in the passing attack. That said, the Chargers are a pass-happy team that's attempted 194 passes compared to just 124 rush attempts. Don't expect the scale to tip closer to a balanced offense this week. The Chargers are double-digit road underdogs against the Aaron Rodgers led Packers, so Philip Rivers will be tasked with trying to keep up. Allen has shaken off his sophomore slump and ripped off 39 receptions on 56 targets for 444 yards receiving and three scores. He ranks third among wide receivers in receptions, fourth in targets, seventh in yardage and tied for ninth in touchdown grabs. He's played like a legitimate number-one, but as I noted, he'll have to share the wealth a bit with Gates. His floor isn't as high as some of his wide receiver peers, but his ceiling is roughly as high as anyone else can claim at the position.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,700

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $7,600

GPP: 5-15%

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Fitz has turned back the clock this season working in beautiful music making harmony with Carson Palmer. The former Pitt Panther leads receivers in touchdown grabs (six), and he ranks seventh in receptions (35) and fifth in receiving yards (490). His production has come despite ranking just tied for 19th among wide receivers in targets (44). His efficiency has resulted in him leading wide receivers who've seen a minimum of 25% of their team's targets with 3.18 YPRR, per PFF. The Cardinals are road favorites at Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have struggled mightily in pass coverage. PFF grades them as the second worst team in pass coverage. The Steelers haven't yielded an eye-popping amount of passing yardage, but they've surrendered nine touchdown grabs while forcing just three interceptions. Fitz should enjoy his return to the city in which he played his college ball.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,500

GPP: 20-25%

DraftKings - $7,000

GPP: 20-25%

Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens

As I noted in Kamar Aiken's write-up, the 49ers are completely lost defending the pass this season. Smith was a limited practice participant on Wednesday, and he's trending in the right direction for playing this weekend. Smith is grossly underpriced at DraftKings and priced with some wiggle room to provide a positive return on investment at FanDuel, too. Even after missing last week's game, Smith is far and away the leader on the Ravens in receptions (29), targets (47) and receiving yards (373) while tying for the team lead in touchdown receptions (two). There aren't many players who can boast such a distinct edge over their competition for touches, and the potential for an extreme volume of work makes Smith a very high-ceiling option against the giving 49ers' secondary. I also expect gamers to have some reservations about using Smith at less than 100%, so his low ownership will be desirable as well.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,700

GPP: 2-8%

DraftKings - $6,100

GPP: 5-10%