Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 7

Elite Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Hopkins' breakout took place last year, but his ascension to stardom is happening before our eyes this season. He's leading the league in targets (90) and receiving yards (726) while ranking second in receptions (52) and tied for third (among wide receivers) in touchdown grabs (five). That's a whole lot of dominance through the first six weeks of the season. His season low in receptions is five (Week 2), and other than that contest, he's caught eight or more passes in the other five and has a stretch of four straight games eclipsing 100 yards receiving. They don't get much more reliable than Nuk, and his ceiling is sky high as well. The Miami Dolphins don't appear to be equipped to keep Hopkins in check, as Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 30th defending number-one wide receivers.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,200

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 20-30%

DraftKings - $8,600

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 25-35%

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

At some point this year, Fitzgerald's salary will catch up to his production. We haven't gotten to that point yet. He remains a bargain, and that's not going to slip past gamers since he has a dreamy matchup this week. The Ravens have surrendered the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, according to Pro-Football Reference. It's not like Fitz has needed soft matchups to pile up numbers this year, either. He's tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions (six), fifth in receptions (43) and fourth in receiving yards (583). He's fallen short of 60 yards receiving in just one contest, and he made up for his 58 yards receiving by hauling in five passes, including a touchdown. He's caught seven or more passes and bested 85 yards receiving in five of six games played this year. Like Hopkins, Fitz has been incredibly consistent and brings a high floor and high ceiling to the table this week. He'll be a popular stack option with his affordable, talented quarterback, Carson Palmer.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,800

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 25-35%

DraftKings - $7,400

Cash: 40-50%

GPP: 25-35%

Value Plays

Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts

All ships rise in the Colts' offense with the return of a healthy Andrew Luck. In his return, Luck aired the ball out 50 times in the rematch of the AFC Championship Game in Week 6. That essentially alleviates any concerns about his health. He and Moncrief picked up where they left off earlier in the season. For the second time this year, Luck threw 11 balls Moncrief's way, and they've extended their touchdown streak to four straight games in which Luck tossed a touchdown pass to the second-year wideout. The Ole Miss product has caught six or more passes in three of four games played with Luck this year, and he's been targeted at least seven times in each of those games. The Saints' secondary is a sieve and FO ranks them dead last in pass defense. Remarkably, they rank just 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but I'm inclined to believe that number will regress closer to their dead last coverage rank. This is a defense that's allowed a staggering 7.7 net yards per pass and 11 touchdowns.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,500

Cash: 3-8%

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $5,200

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

Diggs has been a revelation. He's played in just two games this year, but boy oh boy has he shined. The rookie wide receiver's 216 yards receiving are just 40 behind the team leader, Mike Wallace, and he's more than doubling up the speedy veteran in yards receiving per game (108.0 for Diggs and 51.2 for Wallace). Diggs has been a big play waiting to happen totaling six receptions of 20-plus yards (more than the rest of the team combined), and Teddy Bridgewater has targeted him a whopping 19 times connecting with the rook on 13 of those throws. Charles Johnson might return this week, and that would provide another mouth for Bridgewater to feed. That said, Johnson wasn't on the same page with Bridgewater prior to suffering his injury, and the second-year quarterback and Diggs have shown great rapport. I like Diggs' odds of continuing his heater facing the Lions. The division rival Lions have yielded the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,800

Cash: 4-9%

GPP: 4-9%

DraftKings - $4,200

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

GPP Plays

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bryant was suspended for the first four games of the season and missed a fifth game due to injury. One would have thought Bryant might have some rust to shake off. Psssssh, rust? Nah. All the second-year pass catcher did was catch six passes for 137 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns, one of which was a highlight worthy play. Bryant is a big target, and he and Landry Jones showed great chemistry in their first regular season action playing together. Jones is expected to start this week, but there is some chance Ben Roethlisberger returns. Either quarterback makes for an upgrade over Zombie Michael Vick. Bryant should have his way with a Chiefs defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. If Big Ben beats the odds and returns this week, Antonio Brown makes for a steal at DraftKings. If Jones is under center, as expected, Bryant is my preferred Steelers' receiver in GPPs at both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,900

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $4,700

GPP: 3-8%

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

Yup, another Colts wide receiver gets the nod. Their offense can create more than one fantasy relevant receiver thanks to its pass-happy nature. The Colts have attempted 242 passes this year compared to 140 rush attempts. Hilton is the team's number-one wide receiver and the club's most consistent. He leads the team in receptions (33), targets (59) and receiving yards (456). As I noted in Moncrief's write-up, the Saints haven't been exceptionally giving to wide receivers, but they have been a porous pass defense in general. It's an odd combination, but I like the odds of the receivers getting the better of the Saints' corners, and Luck should have a big game.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,700

GPP: 7-12%

DraftKings - $6,500

GPP: 10-15%

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

Landry is one of my favorite likely low-owned players in GPPs this week. The Dolphins woke up from their season long slumber during Week 5, and interim coach Dan Campbell had them firing on all cylinders in a beat down of the Titans in Week 6. The former blocking tight end talked about toughness and all the normal bluster one would expect from a fiery new head coach during his introductory press conference, and predictably, the Dolphins ran a more balanced offense in their first game with him coaching. Ryan Tannehill attempted a season low 29 passes, but he made up for that by turning in his most efficient effort completing a season high 75.9% of his passes at a season high 9.17 yards per pass. The lack of passing volume is the fly in the ointment for Landry, but he's the team's leader in receptions (31) and targets (50). He even added a rushing touchdown last week. Landry will get the ball in his hands, and he'll do so against a Texans defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league allowing fantasy points to opposing receivers. None of the Texans corners carry a scary Pro Football Focus grade, with only Jonathan Joseph ranking within the top 50 cornerbacks (47th). Landry should get the better of whoever lines up opposite him.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,100

GPP: 2-5%

DraftKings - $6,200

GPP: 2-5%

Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints

Grabbing players from a projected shootout is often a great decision for GPP purposes. The biggest over/under total of the week belongs to the Colts and Saints (52), and with the Saints 4.5 point road underdogs, game flow should work in Snead's favor. Colleague Jason Guilbault discussed Snead's coverage matchup in-depth earlier in the week, and it's a juicy one. That said, Jason also acknowledged the threat of Vontae Davis lurking in the secondary as a potential stopper. Ultimately, there's enough working in Snead's favor to overlook the threat of Davis. Snead leads the Saints in receiving yards (436) while ranking second in targets (38) and third in receptions (26), and he's been their best receiver, albeit only slightly better than Brandin Cooks. Snead provides salary relief with more talent than the typical receiver in that price range.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,500

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $4,300

GPP: 8-13%