NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are looking ahead at week 7, to find the elite matchups for wide receivers against corners. Using Pro Football Focus's ratings as a base, we are able to get an advanced look at what matchups we can take advantage of. They matchups are broken down into the top tier matchups, middle tier matchups, and matchups to fade. Now the opposing cornerback may not always be on the highlighted receiver, but this is a look at who the highlighted receiver will likely see most of the game. Not every number one cornerback covers the opposing team's wide receiver. They usually stay on their side of the field, and on occasion can shadow a number one.
Top Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
A | $8,600 | $9,200 | Jamar Taylor | F | A | |
Antonio Brown | A | $7,900 | $8,300 | Sean Smith | F | A |
Calvin Johnson | B | $7,700 | $8,400 | Xavier Rhodes | F | A |
Julio Jones | A | $9,100 | $9,100 | Jason McCourty | F | A |
Keenan Allen | B | $7,700 | $8,100 | David Amerson | F | B+ |
Odell Beckham Jr. | B | $8,700 | $9,000 | Brandon Carr | D | B |
Steve Smith Sr. | A | $6,200 | $6,900 | Patrick Peterson | B | B- |
Larry Fitzgerald | A | $7,400 | $7,800 | Terrence Brooks | D | A- |
DeAndre Hopkins - The Houston number one is off to a Pro Bowl caliber season, already posting a 52-726-5 line. He is on pace for 240 targets, and has now gained some stability with Brian Hoyer being named the official starting quarterback. With Brent Grimes lining up on the left side of the field, Jamar Taylor will have duties on the right, covering Hopkins. Taylor checks in as a F- corner so far this season, not helping the Dolphins 31st ranked pass defense. Hopkins is the fourth highest graded wideout, per Pro Football Focus,
Antonio Brown - With Ben Roethlisberger doubtful for week 7, the Steelers passing game still takes a small hit, despite such a great matchup. Landry Jones will step in, who looked good getting the ball to his playmakers, which Michael Vick did not do when under center. Brown is the third highest rated wideout, taking on Sean Smith. Kansas City has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, with only Eric Berry being ranked higher than 80 in the secondary. This means Martavis Bryant will have a nice matchup to build off his week 6 success.
Calvin Johnson - Megatron has been quiet this season, up until the last game. While Xavier Rhodes is still improving his game, PFF ranks him 158th among the league's cornerbacks. He will see time matched up with Johnson, allowing Johnson to possibly get on a roll here. Historically, Johnson has had some quiet games against Minnesota, but does have have a few monster lines mixed in the 14 career games against Minny. With more consistent options out there, Johnson has the matchup to be a great GPP play.
Julio Jones - There are not many matchups to keep me away from Julio Jones, and this is definitely not a week to do so. He will be lined up against Jason McCourty, looking to be one of the best matchups of the day. Jones is your number one ranked wideout, but it looks like he has been hindered by an injury, as well as the Devonta Freeman train. The matchup bodes well for Jones to post a monster line, but should be relatively low owned.
Keenan Allen - The Chargers wideout was on a record pace for receptions in a game against Green Bay, before leaving the game with a hip injury. He is expected to be fine against Oakland this Sunday. Oakland collectively has the worst rated cornerbacks in the league. David Amerson, D.J. Hayden, and Neiko Thorpe add up to a 124.3 out of 300 rating. With the Chargers being so pass heavy, it should be a big day for Allen, as well as Michael Floyd.
Odell Beckham Jr. - You could say Odell Beckham Jr. is in a sophomore slump, but really his numbers were so high last season, anything looks like a sophomore slump at this point.Hhe has a great matchup against Brandon Carr this week. Carr ranks just 84th out of league cornerbacks, and simply is the best corner Dallas has to offer. Granted Beckham is healthy, this is a favorable matchup for him.
Steve Smith Sr. - I was on the fence about this one, but with how Steve Smith Sr has been this season, he still ranks higher than Patrick Peterson. Sure, the matchup is a B-, but this is probably the best B- matchup you will see. With Baltimore having limited options on offense, they will get him the ball regardless. He averages 11.4 targets per game. This 5th ranked WR versus 12th ranked CB is going to be a fun matchup to watch, and you have to love Smith's price on both sites.
Larry Fitzgerald - The veteran wideout has rebounded nicely this year, and has an awesome partnership with Carson Palmer. Fitz comes in as the third ranked wideout on PFF, facing a truly awful secondary. Baltimore ranks behind Kansas City in points allowed to wideouts, Terrence Brooks has a D- rating so far this season, and this stands out as one of the top matchups to exploit among the top tier wide receivers.
Middle Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Donte Moncrief | C | $5,200 | $6,500 | Brandon Browner | F | C+ |
T.Y. Hilton | B | $6,500 | $7,700 | Delvin Breaux | B | C |
Willie Snead | C | $4,300 | $6,500 | Darius Butler | F | C+ |
Pierre Garcon | C | $5,000 | $6,100 | Tim Jennings | F | B |
Amari Cooper | C | $6,500 | $7,300 | Brandon Flowers | F | B- |
Mike Evans | D | $6,400 | $7,500 | Will Blackmon | F | C- |
John Brown | B | $5,500 | $6,700 | Kyle Arrington | F | B |
Donte Moncrief - This Saints-Colts game features two of the league's best passing attacks. The Saints have poor secondary ratings and rankings, but were banged up so far this season. While I believe both Colts receivers will get their share, they fall into the middle tier for me. Moncrief matches up against Brandon Browner, who has an F- rating, yet is still one of the better corners in the league. Moncrief has posted a C rating, and is gaining steam in this Colts' system. There is no clear advantage, unless you look strictly at the rating through six weeks. This one is a tossup looking long term.
T.Y. Hilton - Looking at the other side of the field, Hilton will face Delvin Breaux, who ranks as the 9th best corner in the NFL. Hilton ranks as the 18th best wideout this season, with a B- grade so far. This is another tossup, and Hilton is best suited for GPP lineups.
Willie Snead - Three big passing performances in a row from Drew Brees has led the Saints back onto our radars. The receiving core remains very inconsistent, yet Willie Snead has seen a bump in usage the last few weeks. He is the highest rated wideout among the Saints roster, with Brandin Cooks being a close second. Both have very favorable matchups, with Darius Butler and Greg Toler rating below a 45. However, Vontae Davis is floating out there not matched on either, but that could very well change. Davis has shadowed Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, Kendall Wright, and Allen Robinson this season, but this was with Greg Toler out. Something to keep an eye on as the week goes on.
Pierre Garcon - DeSean Jackson is questionable yet again, leaving Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder as the focal points in the passing game. Both are ranked as C+ ratings this season, and have B matchups this week. Tim Jennings ranks 159th among corners, while Alterraun Verner ranks 156th. Both will see time on Garcon and Crowder this week. With the Washington run game in the state that it is in, any points out of this game should come through the air. Both should be looked at as average value plays this week.
Amari Cooper - I am infatuated with the Raiders' wideouts this week, and for good reasons. One, they will need to keep up with Rivers on the scoreboard, two the matchups should be completely overlooked. Cooper has a C- rating, but will take on Brandon Flowers, who ranks 167th in the league among corners. Cooper has risen in in rating from the beginning of the season. Flowers has continuously gotten worse as the season has gone on. PFF has Michael Crabtree has the 11th best wideout in their ratings, which probably comes as a surprise to some. He takes on Jason Verrett, who has an average C rating, who has floated around subpar ratings each week.
Mike Evans - The second year wideout has not been great this season, which has his price dropping. I still believe he is one of the better GPP plays this week, even with the matchup looks average on paper. Evans is rated as the 77th ranked wideout, facing Will Blackmon, with an F rating. With Vincent Jackson being shadowed by Bashaud Breeland, a B rated corner, Winston should be looking Evans way.
John Brown - Well, John Brown put himself on the map this week with his 10 catches for 196 yards against Pittsburgh. He has a chance, based on matchup, to build on his week 6 performance, against poorly rated Kyle Arrington. Brown is a home run threat, but can also work the middle of the field. Brown will likely see Will Hill over the top, which will likely limit the chance of the monster home run play. One-on-one with Arrington, this is a great matchup for his price.
Matchups To Fade
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Kendall Wright | C | $5,200 | $5,700 | Desmond Trufant | B | D+ |
Jordan Matthews | F | $6,400 | $6,600 | Bene Benwikere | D | C- |
Allen Hurns | B | $5,300 | $6,900 | Stephon Gilmore | B | C- |
Travis Benjamin | C | $5,400 | $6,600 | Trumaine Johnson | B | C |
Ted Ginn Jr. | D | $3,300 | $5,300 | Nolan Carroll | C | D+ |
Kendall Wright - There are not too many featured WR1 or WR2 matchups on the list to avoid, but there are some possible value plays to be aware of. Wright has a solid C rating this season, but takes on Desmond Trufant, who ranks as the eight best rated corner. If Marcus Mariota likely being out doesn't keep you off Wright, the matchup should finish the job.
Jordan Matthews - There is a lot of things to tie into rostering Jordan Matthews, which is why he is listed here. Sam Bradford is not a very good quarterback, and there are too many other targets to make Matthews a consistent play. He has an F rating this season, facing Bene Benwikere who is your average corner. Now maybe if the matchup leaned heavily in Matthews' favor, I would not list him here, but the matchup is subpar, and not enough to make me overlook his very average performance this season.
Allen Hurns - If you find yourself in a slate with the London game in it, avoiding Allen Hurns is the way to go. Buffalo brings two top rated corners to the table, with Stephon Gimore, and Ronald Darby. Both are rated in the top ten, and will have the task of covering Hurns, and Allen Robinson. I can see the Jaguars focusing on Julius Thomas, as well as still leaning on their WR1, Robinson. This should take targets away from Hurns. The matchup is not a good one, especially with his rising price.
Travis Benjamin - Trumaine Johnson has been rated in the low-to-mid 80's each week of the season, and is rated the 13th among corners. Benjamin has put up some decent lines this season, and especially with big plays. St. Louis also has two above average safeties to contain Benjamin. St. Louis has allowed the seventh least amount of points allowed to wideouts this season.
Ted Ginn Jr. - If you were looking to play Ginn as a dirt cheap value play with Cam Newton, I would look a different direction. For one thing he has an incredibly low floor, but the matchup doesn't suite him either. Nolan Carroll is not a standout corner, but an efficient one, with a higher C rating. We should see a similar style game plan from last week.
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